POOM! (or soon to be POOM!!)

[jtabeb]

Re: POOM! (or soon to be POOM!!)

Hard liquor is a far better investment than beer: longer term storage, volume/drunkeness ratio, no required refrigeration and commensurate energy requirements, etc. Also, hard liquor of high enough alcohol content can have dual uses as fuel or for flaming projectiles.

I'm long hard liquor.

At least you're not a long hard licker, although that might useful in some situations.

see also "window licker", just plain wrong, who thinks up this shit?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...indow%20licker

[c1ue]

Re: POOM! (or soon to be POOM!!)

OFHEO's HPI data is deflated using CPI DATA which is WRONG (If you believe FINSTER). Therefore, Houses are MUCH CHEAPER IN REAL TERMS than is depicted.

This has one implication for me-> we are closer to high/very high inflation than most people are aware of right now.

The point about OFHEO is a good and correct one, but not one which can be extrapolated to anywhere in the US.

For example, your advice about buying a home now is not a good one if you live here in the Bay Area - in my opinion.

Using the rule of 3: i.e. mortgage amount no more than 3x income, it is pretty much impossible to buy any type of house in a decent area.

Furthermore all those expecting inflation to bail out their mortgage burden - are assuming that they will have wage increases roughly proportional to oncoming inflation.

This is not necessarily going to happen.

As I've pointed out in another thread: if you work in the semiconductor industry, wage increases are increasingly unlikely. The entire equipment side - hence rest of the industry - is going from a 3 year, Moore's law situation into a 7 year (or even 10 year) traditional heavy industry retooling situation.

What does this mean? It means no more easy money by selling new picks and shovels every 3 years, and similarly new equipment leading to spectacular new technical capabilities to feed a consumption frenzy.

Of course those in Semi could then run into the solar industry.

But Solar - while eventually someone will come out and make money, in the meantime the math is totally different than with the Internet bubble: no Y2K runup with Greenspan keeping interest rates super low for no reason. There isn't going to be a solar equivalent of Pets.com.