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You guys promised me a full blown crash by Octy and we are here and where IS the crash!
Eric, am VERY dissapointed !
Mike
Maybe this will help...
Courtesy of Barry Ritholtz:
Cheat sheet: reacting to data and market releases
weak data = Fed ease, stocks rally
consensus data = lower volatility, stocks rally
strong data = economy strengthening, stocks rally
bank loses $4bln = bad news out of the way, stocks rally
oil spikes = great for energy companies, stocks rally
oil drops = great for the consumer, stocks rally
dollar plunges = great for multinationals, stocks rally
dollar spikes = lowers inflation, stocks rally
inflation spikes = will inflate all assets, stocks rally
inflation drops = improves earnings quality, stocks rally
You guys promised me a full blown crash by Octy and we are here and where IS the crash!
Eric, am VERY dissapointed !
Mike
The crash will come if China crashes, then all emerging markets will crash along, and Boeing and Intel will can cancelled orders. You guys are looking at the wrong direction.
This has got to be Bart's absolute least verbose post. < "0" Words + 1 chart > ! OK, it's not a secular chart, but I think we do get the broad hint where the crash has occurred ...
Now did you crib this DOW > GLD idea from Charles Mackay back in 2000, or did he crib it from you, or did you both arrive at it independently? :eek: :confused: :eek:
This has got to be Bart's absolute least verbose post. < "0" Words + 1 chart > ! OK, it's not a secular chart, but I think we do get the broad hint where the crash has occurred ...
Now did you crib this DOW > GLD idea from Charles Mackay back in 2000, or did he crib it from you, or did you both arrive at it independently? :eek: :confused: :eek:
If I told you where the idea came from, I'd have to **something** you?... :eek: ;)
By the way, you can show a similar "crash" with most hard commodities.
Truthfully I think I ran into the Dow/gold ratio from a site years ago that has now disappeared, but the additions of the CRB, housing, oil ratios (and the CPI+lies vs. M3 & m3) was my idea.
Where's the Finster? [ * A.K.A. - Cerberus' second head? ]
_____________
[ * The two-headed, slavering giant hound guarding the gates of Hades in Greek mythology. Contemporary lore imputes this mythological creature to be the 'bart-finster' gnomon *** ]
[ ** Slav´er`ing - a.1. Drooling; defiling with saliva. ]
[ *** Gnom´on - a.2. Greek word meaning "indicator", "one who discerns," or "that which reveals." ]
Last edited by Contemptuous; October 13, 2007, 08:25 PM.
Where's the Finster? [ * A.K.A. - Cerberus' second head? ]
_____________
[ * The two-headed, slavering giant hound guarding the gates of Hades in Greek mythology. Contemporary lore imputes this mythological creature to be the 'bart-finster' gnomon *** ]
[ ** Slav´er`ing - a.1. Drooling; defiling with saliva. ]
[ *** Gnom´on - a.2. Greek word meaning "indicator", "one who discerns," or "that which reveals." ]
All kidding aside. That is a disingenuous comment on your part. I have not got a clue about economic theory, nor it's many applications. I bob about with little more substance than a cork on the high seas, reading much of the economic commentary on these pages.
I understand a little more about geo-politics, and have a little clarity on what's going to be happening in the energy markets, but that's only because a lot of people here don't have the foggiest idea how truly ugly the thing is about to bust loose in that area.
Just to clarify the point - I have zero illusion of having much of any grasp of everything from hedge funds to central banks, as they are discussed on these pages. It is my fervent wish that I do not mouth off on those topics and make an complete ass out of myself.
The third head on the Cerberus dog is going to have to be something of substance, or we'll just have to dispense with your and Finster's third head altogether. :rolleyes:
Last edited by Contemptuous; October 14, 2007, 12:28 AM.
All kidding aside. That is a kind but disingenuous comment on your part. I have not got a clue about economic theory, nor it's many applications. I bob about with little more substance than a cork on the high seas, reading much of the economic commentary on these pages.
I understand a little more about geo-politics, and I think I have a little clarity on what's going to be happening in the energy markets, but that's only because a lot of people here don't have the foggiest idea how truly ugly the thing is which is already beginning to bust loose in that area.
Just to clarify the point - I have zero illusion of having much of any grasp of many of the economic workings - and that's regarding everything - from hedge funds to central banks, as they are discussed on these pages. It is my fervent wish that I do not mouth off on those topics and make an complete ass out of myself.
The third head on the Cerberus dog is going to have to be something of substance, or we'll just have to dispense with your and Finster's third head altogether. :rolleyes:
Lukester, don't worry, I think Bart was just BSing you. Though you are not as dumb as you write you are. We're all dumb, the smartest are the least dumb.
Jim 69 y/o
"...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)
Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.
Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.
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