Job loses 11,000?!

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

That just reminded me. Sometimes, when one has a bit of discretion, one doesn't lay people off immediately before Thanksgiving or the holidays. At least this seems to be true for smaller employers where the boss knows the workers personally.

Solid insight.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

For those with access to Chris Marternson's pay area, he has a take along these lines. Check it out.

[rjwjr]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

From this article... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-Surp...4&asset=&ccode ...we get this observation...

The report doesn't match up with other jobs data: Today's report will no doubt be a head scratcher for economists as they try to understand how other labor market data could be so divergent. Earlier in the week, ADP reported private payroll losses of 169,000 for November. The Monster Employment Index, which measures online job demand, actually dipped slightly from October's number. "This was a shocking report because the reported payroll data bear little resemblance to any other evidence concerning the labor market, including the ADP survey, which is based on hard data from a much wider sample of payrolls than is the government's survey," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR.

[FRED]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Here's our take.

First of all, as ASH pointed out, companies don't lay off employees during the holidays. January is layoff month.

Second, mean duration of unemployment is still rising.

So, while there may be fewer people losing jobs, the unemployed are still not being rehired. When layoffs season arives in January 2010, the unemployment rate will rise again.

[strittmatter]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

From this article... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-Surp...4&asset=&ccode ...we get this observation...

The report doesn't match up with other jobs data: Today's report will no doubt be a head scratcher for economists as they try to understand how other labor market data could be so divergent. Earlier in the week, ADP reported private payroll losses of 169,000 for November. The Monster Employment Index, which measures online job demand, actually dipped slightly from October's number. "This was a shocking report because the reported payroll data bear little resemblance to any other evidence concerning the labor market, including the ADP survey, which is based on hard data from a much wider sample of payrolls than is the government's survey," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR.

Long-term unemployment continues to spread: The ranks of the long-term unemployed grew again last month, as 293,000 unemployed workers saw their unemployment spells push past the six-month mark. Now, nearly 6 million workers have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. As job losses narrow but employers hesitate to hire, average unemployment durations lengthen. Nearly 4 in 10 unemployed workers are among the long-term unemployed.

Why the variation with the number of weeks - 27 above v. 20+ below?





oh.


thanks fred.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

median vs mean?

[FRED]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

median vs mean?

Median: One type of average, found by arranging the values in order and then selecting the one in the middle.

Mean: The "mean" is the "average" you're used to, where you add up all the numbers and then divide by the number of numbers.

Purple Math

[we_are_toast]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

I believe EJ and Fred at one time were emphasizing Civilian unemployed for 27 weeks and over, so here's what that looks like.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Median: One type of average, found by arranging the values in order and then selecting the one in the middle.

Mean: The "mean" is the "average" you're used to, where you add up all the numbers and then divide by the number of numbers.

Purple Math

Uhhh, I know. I was trying to help a brother out!

[charliebrown]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

On the BLS report I look for five things. here are the changes since last month.

% of pop employed. 58.5% No change.
Total number of people employed 138.5M up 200k
Average weekly wage Up $5.00
U6 16.4 down 1.1%
Durataion of unemp. 20.2 weeks up .9 weeks.

So we have 3 bits of good news; num emp, average wage, u6;
one bad duration, and one scratch % population.
This is the best employment report I have seen in a few months.
Like others have said, seasonality may play into it, and we will see if the numbers are heavily adjusted later.

[strittmatter]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Uhhh, I know. I was trying to help a brother out!

ya I caught it when fred posted the correct chart just after I posted.

[GRG55]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Here's our take.

First of all, as ASH pointed out, companies don't lay off employees during the holidays. January is layoff month...

Allegedly the Canadian economy is much stronger than that in the USA, can better withstand the effects of layoff announcements, apparently prompting Canadian employers to ignore such niceties as holiday scheduling...:rolleyes:

Rogers cuts 900 jobs

November 26, 2009 3:49 PM |

Rogers Communications Inc. announced Thursday it is laying off 900 employees across Canada...




Talisman cuts 220 jobs

Last Updated: Wednesday, December 2, 2009 | 5:13 PM MT

Talisman Energy is laying off 220 people, most of them in technical and support positions in Calgary.

The layoffs represent about 13 per cent of the company's North American workforce.

"It is a tough day for the company. Talisman prides itself on having some of the best and brightest in the industry. It's always sad to see people go," said Phoebe Buckland, a spokeswoman for Talisman Energy on Wednesday...

Oh well, there's always the potential for a career change...perhaps more Canadians should consider becoming a realtor in Vancouver? :rolleyes:

[LargoWinch]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Oh well, there's always the potential for a career change...perhaps more Canadians should consider becoming a realtor in Vancouver? :rolleyes:

Gollum cornered that market a looong time ago ;)

[goadam1]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

Here's our take.

First of all, as ASH pointed out, companies don't lay off employees during the holidays. January is layoff month.

Second, mean duration of unemployment is still rising.

So, while there may be fewer people losing jobs, the unemployed are still not being rehired. When layoffs season arives in January 2010, the unemployment rate will rise again.

I know a company that laid off 80 people on Wednesday, not January. I haven't hired but my staff is doing more hours and pulling in overtime.

How do those facts that fit the thesis?

I can't think of where good jobs would come from but a trillion dollars sure stabilized things for the time being. Plus 10% and dropping sure sounds nice around Xmas. Revisions.

[FRED]

Re: Job loses 11,000?!

I know a company that laid off 80 people on Wednesday, not January. I haven't hired but my staff is doing more hours and pulling in overtime.

How do those facts that fit the thesis?

What if, statistically, the average firm is not doing as well as yours and needs to lay off employees? What if they can avoid layoffs until January?

I can't think of where good jobs would come from but a trillion dollars sure stabilized things for the time being. Plus 10% and dropping sure sounds nice around Xmas. Revisions.