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Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

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  • Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

    That comes to $5.69B per day or $8B per working day.

    Fire up the electronic zero hatchers!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federa...n&asset=&ccode=

    The federal deficit hit a record for October as the new budget year began where the old one ended: with the government awash in red ink.

    Economists worry that if such deficits continue it could push up interest rates, further dragging on the fragile economic recovery.
    The Treasury Department said Thursday that the deficit for October totaled $176.4 billion, even higher than the $150 billion imbalance that economists expected.
    The deficit for the 2009 budget year, which ended on Sept. 30, set an all-time record in dollar terms of $1.42 trillion. That was $958 billion above the 2008 deficit, the previous record holder.
    October was the 13th straight month to show a monthly deficit -- another record. It was the fifth-largest monthly deficit ever.
    The imbalance came mostly from lower receipts of individual and corporate taxes. Receipts were $135.3 billion, a 17.9 percent drop from last October.
    Spending dipped 2.7 percent to $311.7 billion. Last October's outlays were inflated by the $33 billion spent on the first round of financial bailouts at the peak of the financial crisis.
    The Obama administration expects this year's deficit to reach $1.5 trillion. That would make it the third straight record annual deficit.
    In relation to the overall economy, the 2009 deficit was 9.9 percent of the gross domestic product. That was the highest level since the World War II-era deficit hit 21.5 percent of GDP in 1945.
    The devastating effects of the country's worst recession since the 1930s and the government's efforts to stabilize the financial system with a $700 billion bank bailout fund and a $787 billion economic stimulus program drove the 2009 deficit.
    The administration projects the deficit will remain above $1 trillion in 2011. In fact, according to the estimates it made in August, the deficit will never drop below $739 billion over the next decade.
    So far, the government has been able to borrow to finance the soaring deficits at low rates because the recession pushed interest rates down and the Federal Reserve has worked to keep them low in an effort to stimulate a rebound.
    But the concern is that government borrowing at such levels will start to push interest rates higher as the economy begins to recover, making it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow the money they need. Another worry is that foreigners could become spooked by the size of all the deficits and cut back on their purchases of Treasury debt.
    China, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, has expressed concerns about the size of the U.S. deficits, prompting administration officials to issue repeated pledges that it will start to tackle the deficits as soon as the recovery is on more sustained footing.
    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, on a visit to Tokyo on Wednesday, told reporters that "as growth recovers and strengthens, we're going to bring our fiscal positions back to a sustainable balance."
    Republicans have attacked the administration for failing to put forward what they consider a credible plan to deal with the soaring deficits. That debate is expected to intensify in coming weeks as Congress is faced with the need to raise the government's debt limit, currently at $12.1 trillion. The administration said last week it expects to hit the current limit in December.

  • #2
    Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

    Originally posted by c1ue View Post
    That comes to $5.69B per day or $8B per working day.

    Fire up the electronic zero hatchers!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federa...n&asset=&ccode=
    I didn't catch the NPR interview with Obama's director of OMB, but my boss claimed Orszag admitted losing sleep at night, and that their best case scenario is running 3% (of GDP) deficits instead of 10% deficits in a few years' time -- not balancing the budget. I suppose that's about as candid as a man in his position can get, without triggering a panic. Still, from where I'm sitting, the trajectory traces into a mountainside. If we at iTulip are wrong about this not being a self-sustaining recovery, we might be okay. My sense is that we may not get a second swing at the reflation/stimulus ball if the "rebound" peters out, and we have to extend the period of $T deficits much beyond current projections. The only story we can tell is that we know what we're doing can't be sustained, but we won't have to sustain it very long; if it looks like there's no near-term end in sight, I think it's curtains.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

      Originally posted by ASH
      If we at iTulip are wrong about this not being a self-sustaining recovery, we might be okay. My sense is that we may not get a second swing at the reflation/stimulus ball if the "rebound" peters out, and we have to extend the period of $T deficits much beyond current projections.
      As EJ has noted before - the road to hyperinflation is long.

      And we're still on it.

      Each major program that has been passed by the Obama administration thus far has consistenly been 'kick the can': stimulus I, bank bailout II, GM/AIG nationalization, homeowner's tax credit, cash for clunkers, now upcoming cash for appliances.

      There is still no light at the end of the government tunnel.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

        Originally posted by ASH View Post
        I didn't catch the NPR interview with Obama's director of OMB, but my boss claimed Orszag admitted losing sleep at night, and that their best case scenario is running 3% (of GDP) deficits instead of 10% deficits in a few years' time -- not balancing the budget. I suppose that's about as candid as a man in his position can get, without triggering a panic.

        I heard that interview. He defended the stimulas spending and kept talking about the out years. I remember thinking without inflation to boost GDP or a growing economy he was full of it. The numbers are really mind blowing.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

          Saw this article yesterday over on Safehaven. I think it gives strong support for EJ's thesis. Deserves it's own thread but I didn't know how to do that.

          The American economy in one chart:

          http://www.safehaven.com/article-14999.htm

          I've seen the long term charts that show rising debt over at market ticker, but I always wondered "why stop now"? The chart in the above article showing unrelenting decline in long-term interest rates shows why.

          The only way forward is to continue printing and spending by the government. They can't raise interest rates. Looks like inflation by dollar destruction to me

          John M

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

            Originally posted by jandkmeyer View Post
            Saw this article yesterday over on Safehaven. I think it gives strong support for EJ's thesis. Deserves it's own thread but I didn't know how to do that.

            The American economy in one chart:

            http://www.safehaven.com/article-14999.htm

            I've seen the long term charts that show rising debt over at market ticker, but I always wondered "why stop now"? The chart in the above article showing unrelenting decline in long-term interest rates shows why.

            The only way forward is to continue printing and spending by the government. They can't raise interest rates. Looks like inflation by dollar destruction to me

            John M

            There already is a thread on this:

            http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12944

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

              The White House made an effort yesterday to get the word into the mouths of talking heads that Obama will talk about a War on Deficits in his State of the Union address in January.

              http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29471.html

              “Democrats have to reassure voters we are not being reckless,” said a Democratic official involved in the planning. “The White House knows this and that's why we'll be hearing a lot about reducing the deficit early next year. Democrats owned this issue for the past four years and cannot afford to cede it to Republicans now."

              White House budget director Peter Orszag said in a statement to POLITICO: “The President strongly believes that as the recovery strengthens and job growth returns, we will have to take the tough steps necessary to return our nation to a fiscally disciplined and sustainable path. We recognize that the projected medium-term deficits are too high, and as part of the FY 2011 budget process, we are committed to bringing them down. Our challenge is to tackle those out-year deficits in a way and at a time that does not choke off economic recovery, and the FY 2011 budget will reflect our best judgment about how to walk that line."

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                As EJ has noted before - the road to hyperinflation is long.

                And we're still on it.

                Each major program that has been passed by the Obama administration thus far has consistenly been 'kick the can': stimulus I, bank bailout II, GM/AIG nationalization, homeowner's tax credit, cash for clunkers, now upcoming cash for appliances.

                There is still no light at the end of the government tunnel.
                Relax - your Government operates in sound mind and safe hands - They have your best interests at heart - FOR EXAMPLE - You may qualify for a Housing rebate if you buy a boat with a bathroom - NO you say - YES True

                Q: Can a principal residence be something besides a conventional house?

                Yes. A principal residence may also be a condominium, co-op apartment, attached or semi-attached townhouse, or even—if it has eating, sleeping and toilet facilities—a boat, motor home or trailer. Manufactured homes qualify in some states.

                Have you ever pondered the Question " If there were no credit cards to smooth over the cash shortfall of wages that cannot cover the bills, would The US be better/worse off" ?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                  Originally posted by thunderdownunder View Post
                  Have you ever pondered the Question " If there were no credit cards to smooth over the cash shortfall of wages that cannot cover the bills, would The US be better/worse off" ?
                  Like taking amphetamines. In the short term you are much more productive.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                    Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                    The White House made an effort yesterday to get the word into the mouths of talking heads that Obama will talk about a War on Deficits in his State of the Union address in January.

                    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29471.html

                    “Democrats have to reassure voters we are not being reckless,” said a Democratic official involved in the planning. “The White House knows this and that's why we'll be hearing a lot about reducing the deficit early next year. Democrats owned this issue for the past four years and cannot afford to cede it to Republicans now."

                    White House budget director Peter Orszag said in a statement to POLITICO: “The President strongly believes that as the recovery strengthens and job growth returns, we will have to take the tough steps necessary to return our nation to a fiscally disciplined and sustainable path. We recognize that the projected medium-term deficits are too high, and as part of the FY 2011 budget process, we are committed to bringing them down. Our challenge is to tackle those out-year deficits in a way and at a time that does not choke off economic recovery, and the FY 2011 budget will reflect our best judgment about how to walk that line."
                    War on Deficits?

                    LOL. More creative off-balance-sheet accounting.

                    See, it's easy...just do like Citi and the other banks did, only on a national scale...:rolleyes:

                    The deficits are structural. Let's all get used to it because it just ain't going away...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                      Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                      As EJ has noted before - the road to hyperinflation is long.

                      And we're still on it.
                      Wait a second, you just debated me for a week on how we faced the threat of imminent currency collapse. What gives, change of heart?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                        Originally posted by jandkmeyer View Post
                        Saw this article yesterday over on Safehaven. I think it gives strong support for EJ's thesis. Deserves it's own thread but I didn't know how to do that.

                        The American economy in one chart:

                        http://www.safehaven.com/article-14999.htm

                        I've seen the long term charts that show rising debt over at market ticker, but I always wondered "why stop now"? The chart in the above article showing unrelenting decline in long-term interest rates shows why.

                        The only way forward is to continue printing and spending by the government. They can't raise interest rates. Looks like inflation by dollar destruction to me

                        John M
                        They can't raise rates, that is until the bond market cracks and all hell breaks loose. Mister market is a wild untamed beast no matter how hard the Fed tries. We will get an exogenous destabilizing event or ten of them, timing and amplitude are the only variables. We are on a one way trip towards a new economy.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                          Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                          As EJ has noted before - the road to hyperinflation is long.

                          And we're still on it.

                          Each major program that has been passed by the Obama administration thus far has consistenly been 'kick the can': stimulus I, bank bailout II, GM/AIG nationalization, homeowner's tax credit, cash for clunkers, now upcoming cash for appliances.

                          There is still no light at the end of the government tunnel.

                          fire and ice

                          Some say the world will end in fire,
                          Some say in ice.
                          From what I've tasted of desire
                          I hold with those who favor fire.
                          But if it had to perish twice,
                          I think I know enough of hate
                          To say that for destruction ice
                          Is also great
                          And would suffice.

                          r. frost


                          fyi:





                          disclaimer: I have no idea how this is going to end, except that I am sure it is going to end very badly. Just posting this, b/c it was thought provoking.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                            Does anyone have a good link on how much is going out a month versus how much is coming in? About how much is the military, social security, interest on treasuries, extended unemployment benefits, Fannie and Freddie, etc costing us a month? Then again, I don't know if I would want to see all the numbers in front of me added up.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Federal budget deficit for October 2009: $176.4B

                              Originally posted by Jay
                              Wait a second, you just debated me for a week on how we faced the threat of imminent currency collapse. What gives, change of heart?
                              Not at all.

                              Merely pointing out that we are where we are today not due to a single or even a dozen choices.

                              We are where we are because of the entire generation's choices before now.

                              This is an important point EJ brought out for me: because our present circumstances are due to such a long historical behavior pattern, it is extremely unlikely that said behavior pattern will change - at least until something large breaks. The emotional investment and attachment is simply too large.

                              While this doesn't change my view at all - I've been banging the hyperinflation drum ever since I started on iTulip - it does clarify considerably the bumps on the way to that goal.

                              Comment

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