Job Losses Way Below Estimates

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Jtabeb - did you ever watch that film Midnight Express, from the early eighties I think (Oliver Stone movie) where this kid gets caught smuggling hashish out of Turkey and spends years in a medieval jail system?

There's a scene in there near the end, when after a couple of botched escapes he gets thrown into the worst ward of all - the insane asylum dungeons underground. At exercise hour, all the asylum inmates go and walk around this dank underground fountain in a windowless dungeon.

And they are all walking around the fountain in circles to the right.

And the kid is half loony already from being in there for years, and decides to walk in circles to the left to snap himself out of his stupor. The loonies are all clutching at his sleeve telling him that he "must walk rightwards" with them otherwise "its bad luck". Then an English inmate catches up with him and explains it to him:

"You are walking the wrong way my American friend. A good Turk, always walks to the right. Left is Communist. Right is good! You must walk to the right!"

Then when he leaves, the English inmate tells him he's a "bad machine", so he turns around and the Englishman tut-tut's:

"Ohh! I understand. The bad machine doesn't know it's a bad machine. But the factory knows - it's why they put you here".
And then the American kid totally spooks the daylights out him replying :

"I know you are a bad machine. I know, because I'm from the factory. I make the machines!". :p

Here's the scene - it's in the very first part of the clip - no need to watch the rest. The clip runs up to 2.45 MINS.

http://<object width="425" height="3...mbed></object>

I LOVE that film! (yes, I've seen it)

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Bond rates rising reflect the rational reality of rising percieved inflation risk for long term debt. A rising dollar meanwhile in that same context, could be merely reflecting the unwind of the synthetic dollar short, which is obviously real (to this reader anyway), is global, is massively accumulated and is implicit in the radioactive smouldering core of the derivatives, as well as in the increasingly bid-less US bond auactions. What seems a nonsensical paradox is then only "complexity" at work. Same complexity that may produce a USD that runs away to the upside in the next 12 months, just as easily as run away to the downside. But this idea does not get much traction here.

Good synopsis, This is my take as well (synthetic dollar short covering rally).


I have no idea why people don't think this process is real, I mean we ACTUALLY saw it last year!! (And that was MANAGED TO CONTROL the rise of the Dollar, Just Imagine what would have happened if they would have lost control during the dollars upside breakout?)

I Talked to the "Dude" from "Dude where's the dharma", He totally dismissed the idea when I asked him about it (pre-crisis). He's a really smart and experienced guy and HE was totally blindsided by the dollar rise. So I think that that aspect of this crisis, the potential for truly EXPLOSIVE up-moves in the dollar, has left even the most experienced industry players shocked, to say the least.

[FRED]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

google images site:itulip.com duration unemployment

www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7289


Projected rise in Median Duration of Unemployment by June 2009: 13 weeks from 10.5 weeks currently

other forecasts...

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4837

That is correct. Our median duration of unemployment forecast from January 2009 is for 13 weeks by June 2009. In the event, the figure is now 15 weeks, a record high.

Once again, we were overly optimistic.

We have followed duration of unemployment since 2006 as one of several metrics used to forecast the recession that began in Q4 2007. MDU typically peaks a few months after a recession ends. We are not sure how useful MDU will be this time for indicating a sustained recovery, due to the structural transformation that the US economy is undergoing compared to marginal events previously.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

That helps, thanks Lukester.

[grapejelly]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Lukester, very true.

We should see the dollar's climb at this point as the beginning of the next down phase in the stock market and the optimism market...new lows I think we will see in commodities (ex gold) and the credit markets, new banking problems coming to light, and stock market plunge.

I think gold will continue going up, though. Silver may fall but then it will be dragged up in sympathy to gold at some point.

Back to the subject of this thread, the numbers are complete lies and propaganda and nobody should believe them. The birth death model is the deus ex machina to get any numbers they want.

[c1ue]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Same complexity that may produce a USD that runs away to the upside in the next 12 months, just as easily as run away to the downside.

Weasel words.

Common to most newsletter writers: this could happen, but so could this (the opposite).

Completely worthless without accompanying data.

How large are the synthetic short positions? Duration? Maturity? Counterparties?

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Weasel words.

Common to most newsletter writers: this could happen, but so could this (the opposite).

Completely worthless without accompanying data.

How large are the synthetic short positions? Duration? Maturity? Counterparties?

Very Funny, You would insist that I actually taste a pile of horse shit so that I could verify what the substance is, when smelling it clearly would suffice. (just ask anyone who has debt denominated in dollars, which is like EVERYONE in the US and EVERYONE funding profit speaking speculation in anything.

The dollar is the FUNDING currency, that makes it so, just like me just smelling horse shit is enough for me to determine what it is.

The nose, Knows.

And if you don't think that is so, I invite you to take a big bit out of a pile of horse shit and tell me your conclusions then.

[cbxer55]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

New member, first post.

I reside in Midwest City, OK. Oklahoma possibly has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S. That does not make it good news though. My wife got layed off from her job the end of October 08. I got let go the end of December 08. My wife did manage to land a new job about three weeks before her benefits expired, I meanwhile am still looking with only two weeks to go until my initial claim expires. Then I can claim extended benefits, YAY!

It is not for lack of tryng, as some may claim. When claiming benefits you are required to make at least two contacts per week. It is amazing how many jobs you can apply for, and never hear a thing back. My wife only got lucky in that a local nursing home needed a payroll person ASAP, and she was there at the right time.

Myself, I have worked in the aviation industry most of my life, 20 years. So far this has not been an advantage.
Also have a Class A commercial drivers license, and am unable to land a job there as well. I worked the last four years in the railroad industry, and that is now a dead industry. I have worked in warehouse, auto parts and cannot land a job there as well.

At 48 years old, I have never been unemployed for this long a stretch. I am worried about that, but at the same time my wife is making good money and we will not lose anything. We will just have to cut back on some niceties.

This is the middle of the country, and the unemployment rate is low. But for those of us in that rank, trying to find another job appears to be a daunting task.:rolleyes:

I do have an interview at Tinker Air Force Base on Thursday, and hopefully that 20 years of aviation experience will pay off.

Wish me luck.

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

That is correct. Our median duration of unemployment forecast from January 2009 is for 13 weeks by June 2009. In the event, the figure is now 15 weeks, a record high.

Once again, we were overly optimistic.

We have followed duration of unemployment since 2006 as one of several metrics used to forecast the recession that began in Q4 2007. MDU typically peaks a few months after a recession ends. We are not sure how useful MDU will be this time for indicating a sustained recovery, due to the structural transformation that the US economy is undergoing compared to marginal events previously.

Here is an answer for you: (from http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/)

The (Futile) Task Of Projecting Unemployment

Posted by Tyler Durden at 6:35 PM
Some realistic downside projections: U3: 17-21%; U6: 30-37%.

Best case scenario: U3: 14-17%; U6: 26-31%

And here is what Bernanke, and everyone else who wonders where we are headed, should be looking at:

"If the job market does not turn around by late summer or early fall of 2009, the projections easily exceed the Great Depression. At that point the only way to prevent catastrophic economic conditions would be through massive inflation of the US dollar achieved by either congress allowing the Federal Reserve to issue its own debt, or by accelerating the rate at which the Federal Reserve monetizes US debt while funneling the newly printed dollars into wages so that the money can circulate within the economy."
Yes, wage inflation is wonderful, however recent data indicate that just the opposite is happening, and the only people who have seen their base pay increase are, ironically, Wall Street bankers, however, at the expense of losing their bonuses. Which is why bank excess reserves are likely to continue skyrocketing as literally boxes full of cash continue gathering dust, while a deleveraging consumer spends his money on guns and ammo.

And here, for some more data on why the unemployment number, is for the most part, rubbish.

[Raz]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

New member, first post.

I reside in Midwest City, OK. Oklahoma possibly has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S. That does not make it good news though. My wife got layed off from her job the end of October 08. I got let go the end of December 08. My wife did manage to land a new job about three weeks before her benefits expired, I meanwhile am still looking with only two weeks to go until my initial claim expires. Then I can claim extended benefits, YAY!

It is not for lack of tryng, as some may claim. When claiming benefits you are required to make at least two contacts per week. It is amazing how many jobs you can apply for, and never hear a thing back. My wife only got lucky in that a local nursing home needed a payroll person ASAP, and she was there at the right time.

Myself, I have worked in the aviation industry most of my life, 20 years. So far this has not been an advantage.
Also have a Class A commercial drivers license, and am unable to land a job there as well. I worked the last four years in the railroad industry, and that is now a dead industry. I have worked in warehouse, auto parts and cannot land a job there as well.

At 48 years old, I have never been unemployed for this long a stretch. I am worried about that, but at the same time my wife is making good money and we will not lose anything. We will just have to cut back on some niceties.

This is the middle of the country, and the unemployment rate is low. But for those of us in that rank, trying to find another job appears to be a daunting task.:rolleyes:

I do have an interview at Tinker Air Force Base on Thursday, and hopefully that 20 years of aviation experience will pay off.

Wish me luck.

Hello, cbxer55:

Thanks for your post. I'm in the Deep South about 600 miles to the East-Southeast of you and things here are pretty much as you described them in Oklahoma.

I wish you more than luck; I wish you the job!

[Raz]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Weasel words.

Common to most newsletter writers: this could happen, but so could this (the opposite).

Completely worthless without accompanying data.

How large are the synthetic short positions? Duration? Maturity? Counterparties?

I think that everyone who owes a debt denominated in U.S. Dollars is short the Dollar above whatever amount of Dollars they actually hold as savings. (I could be wrong, so correct me if I am.)

Since the total debt outstanding that is denominated in U.S. Dollars is unimaginably HUGE (and growing - thanks to Barry and Timmy and Ben and Dumbya and Pauli and ...) it would seem that those loans being called/defaulted on/cancelled or whatever would set off a HUGE short squeeze.

But what do Raz know; Raz just pawn in game of life.

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

I think that everyone who owes a debt denominated in U.S. Dollars is short the Dollar above whatever amount of Dollars they actually hold as savings. (I could be wrong, so correct me if I am.)

Since the total debt outstanding that is denominated in U.S. Dollars is unimaginably huge (and growing - thanks to Barry and Timmy and Ben and Dumbya and Pauli and ...) it would seem that those loans being called/defaulted/cancelled or whatever would set of a HUGE short squeeze.

But what do Raz know; Raz just pawn in game of life.

Raz is a VERY VERY prescient GUY! (Raz has got the big picture)

[Munger]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

What I can't figure out is, how do they track unemployed people from small businesses like mine. I had a long time employee who I then switched to working as a contract worker. So technically he was self employed. He can't collect unemployment, so its not reported that way. I had him down to working a few days a week until the first of the year when I had to let him go completely. Now he manages to find sporadic work on his own, but is for all practical purposes unemployed. How do these types get counted? He certainly didn't ring up the government and tell them he had no work. I think there has to be hundreds of thousands of people just like him out there. Not everyone works for the government or businesses that report their payroll. There's a lot of independent contractors. Are they counted? I think this is really important because in residential construction the majority of workers are hired this way, as subcontractors. And we all know how bad that industry was hit. Something tells me the numbers are way under reported. Do the unemployment numbers count illegal aliens? They also have been hard hit. I find the Shadowstats 20% unemployment more believable than 9.4%.

The BLS has attempted, since 2001, to count unemployment numbers for small business by using the birth-death model. Simply stated, the birth-death model looks at the number of new entity filings (articles of incorporation/llc/llp/etc) and assumes that they create a certain number of jobs. So, if an employer goes bust and lays off 100 people, and 50 new LLCs are formed in the same month, there is a net change of zero to the unemployment numbers.

Of course, this model is completely full of shit to the extent that the vast majority of new business do not survive and that many filings occur without any jobs created. In the end it is just another way to cook the books.

[Moe_Gamble]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

I think that everyone who owes a debt denominated in U.S. Dollars is short the Dollar above whatever amount of Dollars they actually hold as savings. (I could be wrong, so correct me if I am.)

Since the total debt outstanding that is denominated in U.S. Dollars is unimaginably huge (and growing - thanks to Barry and Timmy and Ben and Dumbya and Pauli and ...) it would seem that those loans being called/defaulted/cancelled or whatever would set of a HUGE short squeeze.

But what do Raz know; Raz just pawn in game of life.

What you're saying makes sense to me in terms of what I'm seeing on my trading charts. I hated the move in the DX on Friday, especially with oil at $69. About $9 of that price is due to summer demand, and will be coming out of the price very soon (summer supply has already been bought at this point). The production decline rate is sharp, so everything else being equal we would see a price of roughly $66 by the end of June, but as you point out, everything else is not equal.

Your short squeeze scenario would create the dip we really should be seeing in the stock market at this point, and would really screw up oil supply for a nice ride up in commodities at the end of the year.

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

What you're saying makes sense to me in terms of what I'm seeing on my trading charts. I hated the move in the DX on Friday, especially with oil at $69. About $9 of that price is due to summer demand, and will be coming out of the price very soon (summer supply has already been bought at this point). The production decline rate is sharp, so everything else being equal we would see a price of roughly $66 by the end of June, but as you point out, everything else is not equal.

Your short squeeze scenario would create the dip we really should be seeing in the stock market at this point, and would really screw up oil supply for a nice ride up in commodities at the end of the year.

Here is the only thing holding up the stock market:


http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...t-upswing.html

Proudly Gunning Every Market Upswing Since TARP

Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:55 PM


Update: Just as the SPY is about to drop, guess who start gobbling up 5-10k blocks of SPY. $10 in TARP money to the first who guesses.

JPM making sure that no Dow dip goes unpunished.

Update 2: And just in case there is ANY CONFUSION AT ALL LEFT, here is who gunned the last ramp up.
Here is a good SAT-type mnemonic:

Akeem is to garbage, as [ blank ] is to gunning the market.
or

R Kelly is to underage girls, as [ blank ] is to SPY.
Sphere: Related Content