Job Losses Way Below Estimates

[metalman]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

From the financial industry- Morgan Stanley tells their employees they have no payroll, all commissions- to the real estate biz- all commissions- to the auto industry- all sales commissions- they be a lot, I'm a thinkin'.

new definition of 'employed' = has an email address with a commercial domain.

no money no spendy.

[Guest]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Shishya - if you feel a bit overwhelmed by the "headwind" your tentative suggestion met, get used to it. You are swimming against a broad tide of opinion here. You'll be camping out in this cold fringe area for a while. Then the confirmations for the thesis which intrigues you will start coming in for you. A little bit later. :cool:

Why is this thread not getting any traction ? Are all assuming that this is a Govt cover up of actual bad data ? is everything a conspiracy now ?

[johngaltfla]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

What shocked me was CBS Radio News at 11 a.m. this morning; they actually said if you "include part time employees and those dropped off the roles the number is 16.4%"....how did they slip that by the censors?

[flintlock]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Shishya - if you feel a bit overwhelmed by the "headwind" your tentative suggestion met, get used to it. You are swimming against a broad tide of opinion here. You'll be camping out in this cold fringe area for a while. Then the confirmations for the thesis which intrigues you will start coming in for you. A little bit later. :cool:

Lukesters right!

[MEDIA][/MEDIA]

[sishya]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

ave. duration unemployment...



a new record!

This is good graph. That is not only at current peak but at all time peak. But is there is a possibility that this is a lagging indicator ? and things start to improve.
Actually looking at the graph it clearly shows it is a very lagging indicator, peaked well after the recession.

[sishya]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Shishya - if you feel a bit overwhelmed by the "headwind" your tentative suggestion met, get used to it. You are swimming against a broad tide of opinion here. You'll be camping out in this cold fringe area for a while. Then the confirmations for the thesis which intrigues you will start coming in for you. A little bit later. :cool:

I am just open to all ideas - bull or bear. and I tend to think that herd mentality can cause serious holes in your pocket.

[Guest]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

I'm not sure of the outcome I suggest, although I have a fair notion that it has better odds than you may figure in the 12 months ahead. But the "family that thinks all together" (here), why, they've got this all figured out. No doubts in their minds ... a-tall. I'm going to be curious to see, if the family that "thinks all together", then "blinks all together" too.

Lukesters right!

[flintlock]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

This is good graph. That is not only at current peak but at all time peak. But is there is a possibility that this is a lagging indicator ? and things start to improve.
Actually looking at the graph it clearly shows it is a very lagging indicator, peaked well after the recession.

Possibly an indicator yes, but frankly I don't see a lot if value in looking back at history when you consider the radical changes we've seen in the last year. Hard to compare now to "normal" recessions.

[metalman]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

This is good graph. That is not only at current peak but at all time peak. But is there is a possibility that this is a lagging indicator ? and things start to improve.
Actually looking at the graph it clearly shows it is a very lagging indicator, peaked well after the recession.

google images site:itulip.com duration unemployment

www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7289


Projected rise in Median Duration of Unemployment by June 2009: 13 weeks from 10.5 weeks currently

other forecasts...

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4837

[jtabeb]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

I'm not sure of the outcome I suggest, although I have a fair notion that it has better odds than you may figure in the 12 months ahead. But the "family that thinks all together" (here), why, they've got this all figured out. No doubts in their minds ... a-tall. I'm going to be curious to see, if the family that "thinks all together", then "blinks all together" too.

Me thinks ALL mil caliber ammo sold out and unavailable to civilian population, does not an immenent recovery make. JMHO

Enjoy the time with the family, I'm not thinking we will have much more left. (I gave it 6 months about 2 months ago, so good times for 4 more months, make the best of them, I know I will).

Luke, you do put a smile on my face.:rolleyes:

V/R

JT

[Guest]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Jtabeb - did you ever watch that film Midnight Express, from the early eighties I think (Oliver Stone movie) where this kid gets caught smuggling hashish out of Turkey and spends years in a medieval jail system?

There's a scene in there near the end, when after a couple of botched escapes he gets thrown into the worst ward of all - the insane asylum dungeons underground. At exercise hour, all the asylum inmates go and walk around this dank underground fountain in a windowless dungeon.

And they are all walking around the fountain in circles to the right.

And the kid is half loony already from being in there for years, and decides to walk in circles to the left to snap himself out of his stupor. The loonies are all clutching at his sleeve telling him that he "must walk rightwards" with them otherwise "its bad luck". Then an English inmate catches up with him and explains it to him:

"You are walking the wrong way my American friend. A good Turk, always walks to the right. Left is Communist. Right is good! You must walk to the right!"

Then when he leaves, the English inmate tells him he's a "bad machine", so he turns around and the Englishman tut-tut's:

"Ohh! I understand. The bad machine doesn't know it's a bad machine. But the factory knows - it's why they put you here".
And then the American kid totally spooks the daylights out him replying :

"I know you are a bad machine. I know, because I'm from the factory. I make the machines!". :p

Here's the scene - it's in the very first part of the clip - no need to watch the rest. The clip runs up to 2.45 MINS.

[media][/media]

[Slimprofits]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

A subject that David Rosenberg also touched on in the excerpt that Judas posted via Zero Hedge is the birth-death model.

However, let’s not forget that the fairy tale Birth-Death model from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) added 220,000 to the headline — so adjusting for that, we would have actually seen a 565,000 headline job decline. At least initially, this skew to the data is being readily dismissed.

To Mr. Market, this was not a case of employment declining 345,000, it was a case of the rate of change improving by 159,000 from April and by 496,000 from the weakest point of the cycle back in January. So, what Mr. Market is doing is extrapolating this so-called improvement into the future and drawing the conclusion that employment is going to start to turn positive on a ‘firstderivative’ basis by August, at which time we will all be bidding au revoir to the recession.

I can't quite wrap my head around this next excerpt from a Barron's blog because they failed to explain why they think the first stage of the adjustment is important.

edit: I wonder (out loud) if Bart or GRG55 have any comments on the birth/death model.

There’s been talk that the birth/death model, a little-noted detail in the monthly report, came in with a huge statistical discrepancy for this month, effectively adding as many as 220,000 jobs to the reading.

Anybody who made the purely mechanical assumption that the birth/death data distorted the overall reading, and added the 220,000 to the 345,000 job losses reported for May would have concluded that the economy actually shed 565,000 paychecks in the month. That would have meant the May labor report wasn’t much better than expected - it actually would have been a disappointment versus the 525,000 job losses economists expected.

There’s some problems with this conclusion. According to Michael Feroli, JPMorgan economist, it’s ”incorrect on many levels to subtract the non-seasonally adjusted birth/death adjustment factor from seasonally adjusted payrolls to get a truer picture of payrolls.”

Start with the manner in which the birth/death statistics are compiled. Feroli noted that the adjustment is a two-stage process. Only the second stage is reported each month, and anybody analyzing the data, including traders, has seen only that part of the adjustment. They’re not only leaving out the other part of the adjustment, they’re leaving out the most-important part. Feroli described the unreported first stage of the adjustment as being ”usually quantitatively more important.” He’s argued to the BLS that it should stop including the unseasonally adjusted number to a seasonally adjusted total because of the confusion it fostered.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowat...n-jobs-report/

[Guest]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Something sure gave the old US D0llar a shot in the arm in the last 48 hours, eh? Such lunges upwards (3% up in 3 days) are disturbing to the hyperinflation proponents. They sleep uneasily after such moves. The bizzarely erupting USD brings on gastric reflux, dyspepsia and bad dreams.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

The bizzarely erupting USD brings on gastric reflux, dyspepsia and bad dreams.

Good luck with your condition.

Something sure gave the old US D0llar a shot in the arm in the last 48 hours, eh?

What I'm really curious about is how often we see USD rising on the same day that all yields for Treasury bonds with a duration of more than year rose too.

Ten-year now up to 3.84%.

[Guest]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Bond rates rising reflect the rational reality of rising percieved inflation risk for long term debt. A rising dollar meanwhile in that same context, could be merely reflecting the unwind of the synthetic dollar short, which is obviously real (to this reader anyway), is global, is massively accumulated and is implicit in the radioactive smouldering core of the derivatives, as well as in the increasingly bid-less US bond auactions. What seems a nonsensical paradox is then only "complexity" at work. Same complexity that may produce a USD that runs away to the upside in the next 12 months, just as easily as run away to the downside. But this idea does not get much traction here.