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vdhulla asked me if I would send him some of my Portland area housing info and I figured I'd just make it available to a wider audience, for those who might be interested...which is probably just vdhulla, ASH, and me, but oh well.
I have posted one or more of these before in various threads but it's been a few months I think.
One I don't think I've ever posted before: a chart I made in December 2007 using Case-Shiller data through September 2007, with my projection of future declines. Using Robert Shiller's conclusion from the national data back to 1890 that historically housing prices roughly follow inflation, I figured Portland prices would have to drop 45% from the peak, and I thought that might happen by 2015. I recently added a sixth-order polynomial trendline (thin black line that drops into the abyss). The decline has already been faster than I estimated a year ago, and probably will pick up speed as unemployment rises. An overshoot seems increasingly likely.
The main local housing bubble blog: http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/ Clint (the guy who runs it) posts charts about once a month as the RMLS reports come out, along with links to articles about local layoffs, developers going bankrupt, etc. One of the charts he does is affordability ratio, I believe using the NAR method. Even using their method (which among other things assumes a 20% downpayment, yeah right) Portland is still overvalued.
I have posted one or more of these before in various threads but it's been a few months I think.One I don't think I've ever posted before: a chart I made in December 2007 using Case-Shiller data through September 2007, with my projection of future declines. Using Robert Shiller's conclusion from the national data back to 1890 that historically housing prices roughly follow inflation, I figured Portland prices would have to drop 45% from the peak, and I thought that might happen by 2015. I recently added a sixth-order polynomial trendline (thin black line that drops into the abyss). The decline has already been faster than I estimated a year ago, and probably will pick up speed as unemployment rises. An overshoot seems increasingly likely.
The main local housing bubble blog: http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/ Clint (the guy who runs it) posts charts about once a month as the RMLS reports come out, along with links to articles about local layoffs, developers going bankrupt, etc. One of the charts he does is affordability ratio, I believe using the NAR method. Even using their method (which among other things assumes a 20% downpayment, yeah right) Portland is still overvalued.
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