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This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

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  • This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

    Two from the NY Times

    This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting


    TWO years ago, when Eric Feichthaler was elected mayor of this palm-fringed, middle-class city, he figured on spending a lot of time at ribbon-cuttings. Tens of thousands of people had moved here in recent years, turning musty flatlands into a grid of ranch homes painted in vibrant Sun Belt hues: lime green, apricot and canary yellow.

    Mr. Feichthaler was keen to build a new high school. He hoped to widen roads and extend the reach of the sewage system, limiting pollution from leaky septic tanks. He wanted to add parks.

    Now, most of his visions have shrunk. The real estate frenzy that once filled public coffers with property taxes has over the last two years given way to a devastating bust. Rather than christening new facilities, the mayor finds himself picking through the wreckage of speculative excess and broken dreams.

    Last month, the city eliminated 18 building inspector jobs and 20 other positions within its Department of Community Development. They were no longer needed because construction has all but ceased. The city recently hired a landscaping company to cut overgrown lawns surrounding hundreds of abandoned homes.

    “People are underwater on their houses, and they have just left,” Mr. Feichthaler says. “That road widening may have to wait. It will be difficult to construct the high school. We know there are needs, but we are going to have to wait a little bit.”


    Taxes Are Reassessed in Housing Slump

    Home owners across the nation are looking to county governments to reassess the values of their homes in the face of flattening and falling prices that have befallen scores of markets. Downward assessments, done at the request of homeowners or pre-emptively by government, appear to be most pronounced in areas where the housing market was exploding just a few years ago, or where economic conditions are poorest.

    In Maricopa County, the largest in Arizona, a “large percentage” of the one million single-family home owners will see their houses reassessed at lower rates in February, said Keith Russell, the county assessor. In Phoenix, the largest city in the county, housing prices fell 8.8 percent over the last year, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, which monitors the residential housing market.

    Among the roughly 200,000 parcels in Lucas County, Ohio, 7,083 owners requested reassessments in 2007, about 10 times the yearly average, said Anita Lopez, the assessor, who ran for office on a campaign to adjust assessments.

    “Citizens know the market is slow if not declining,” Ms. Lopez said, “and they are informed and feel comfortable in challenging their county values. People here can’t sell their homes, they have less money, and they don’t understand why the government is asking for more money in a declining housing market.”

  • #2
    Re: This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

    This re-enforces our forecast that already high federal deficits will in the years ahead be further burdened by the need to compensate economies on a local level for declining local tax revenue. In response, state laws will change to allow states to run deficits. We call the the Prefecture Principle, because after the debt deflation in Japan ran long enough to exhaust national budgets, about five years, prefectures began to run massive deficits of their own.
    Ed.

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    • #3
      Re: This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

      Fred,

      Japan is a natural example to use in predicting future behavior.

      However, I have not seen an analysis on why Japan - as a positive current account nation plus a mercantile/military extension to the US - would necessarily be a good predictor for behavior for the US - as the much larger, largest world economy, negative current account, nation.

      Certainly there are parallels in relative percentages of indebtedness, but Japan can service said debt via net positive exports while the US cannot.

      Japan also has enjoyed the benefits of American military might as an umbrella against China and Russia, but this is not a benefit America can receive reciprocation of either.

      There are also possible parallels with Japan's protracted closure to their '90s bubble via both a low interest rate policy and outsourcing of factories/production into China, but I am unclear as to how many more American capital goods can be allowed to be sold or would be needed/accepted by China and other mercantile industrializing nations.

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      • #4
        Re: This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

        Here we go! The rapid expansion of housing in the high-growth areas of the boom, such as Cape Coral and Ft. Myers in Lee County, FL, and Maricopa County (Phoenix), AZ, caused a surge in demand for government services in the form of roads, schools, police, fire protection, and medical. The provision of these services, taken for granted in most communities, lags real estate development in these areas by several years. Now that the music has stopped, both new and old residents in these areas will find that local governments don't have the money to complete the expansion of services as planned. Bummer to move to Paradise and find that the streets are clogged, emergency services are slow, and the schools are crappy!

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        • #5
          Re: This Is the Sound of a Bubble Bursting

          Might be interesting to note that cape coral is the headquarters of a certain real estate "guru" who has a multi-level marketing program. do a quick search i'm sure you can find out who it is hehe.

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