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A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out

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  • A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out

    Looks like the implosion is rippling inward to the core rather quickly (at least insofar as multi-family accomodation)...
    From the NY Times:
    A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out

    By CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY
    Published: October 9, 2007
    Javier Miglin may walk away from an $80,000 down payment on a condominium with water views in Miami. Randal Mills may give up a $130,000 deposit on a 15th floor condo on the Strip in Las Vegas. And in San Diego, Jeanette Graham would just like to meet the neighbors.

    The three seemingly unrelated predicaments have a common thread that leads to Chicago, and Corus Bankshares, which financed the construction of each condominium development involved.

    Whether buyers like Mr. Miglin and Mr. Mills close on their condos will be a crucial indicator for Corus. Many condo projects that started during the real estate boom are just being completed, and developers must begin repaying construction loans taken out before the market turned sour. If buyers do not close, and developers struggle, lenders like Corus may be left holding the bag.

    “We’re at the riskiest point of the condo lending cycle as these projects are being completed,” Jefferson L. Harralson, a bank analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, said. “In the coming weeks and months, we’re going to find out what the demand for these condos really is.”...

    ...Among the projects is the Icon, where Ms. Graham bought a one-bedroom apartment last year for $374,000. At the time, she said that she was able to negotiate a $9,000 reduction in homeowner association fees, $5,000 toward closing costs and a washer and dryer. She said that her building sold 80 percent of its apartments.

    But she said that the building is now offering even better incentives. Residents who refer buyers get a $5,000 finder’s fee and an extra $5,000 for the buyer.

    Still, she questions whether there will be any takers, especially since her building feels empty. “I can go a whole week without seeing a neighbor,” Ms. Graham said.

    Link to full article:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/09/bu...ewanted=1&_r=1

  • #2
    Re: A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    Looks like the implosion is rippling inward to the core rather quickly (at least insofar as multi-family accomodation)...
    A common theme, it seems. A top story in our local paper today announces the condo boom is over. Note the optimism though that prices won't fall enough for existing condo-owners to lose money, unless they're trying for a quick flip.:rolleyes:

    Shadow falls on condo market

    Once, Portland's demand appeared insatiable. Now, shelved projects and stalled construction dot the city

    Tuesday, October 09, 2007
    RYAN FRANK and JEFF MANNING
    The Oregonian Staff

    In the hot real estate summer of 2005, the futuristic John Ross tower generated a buzz never seen before in Portland.

    Within a week, 222 potential buyers plunked down $5,000 or more to reserve their condos in the 31-story tower on the Willamette River. The talk around town was that developers couldn't build new big-city condos fast enough to keep up with downsizing baby boomers and newcomers. But two years later, the condo boom is over.

    Today, the John Ross has seen so many canceled purchases that developers actually have fewer buyers -- 192 -- than they did two years ago.

    The John Ross got caught in the first slowdown after a historic run-up in condo construction that has reshaped Portland's skyline. For the first time, Portland's condo pioneers are suffering through an inevitable downturn.
    The city has a condo glut, and thousands more are rising out of the ground. In the past six years, developers built 4,042 downtown condos, more than twice the figure from the previous 30 years. Today, developers have nearly 2,114 condos under construction.

    No one can predict when sales will pick up again. Two towers already switched from condos to apartments. Other projects were shelved, and construction has stalled on smaller projects from Beaverton to Northeast Portland.

    Bankers and developers say prices won't fall so far that condo buyers will lose money. But investors expect lower profits, owners will struggle to sell, and speculators will find it harder to turn a quick profit.

    ...

    Still, real estate insiders remain confident about the long-term future.
    They say Portland is immune from the downturn that's infected other big cities. Job growth remains strong, and people continue to move to the area, providing demand for urban living. "It's steady as she goes here," Scanlan said. "There's no reason to panic."
    Right. We haven't even had a drop in median price yet (as of August) and the condos are already in trouble.

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