The Elusive Canadian Housing Bubble

[jk]

Re: Cracks Becoming Clearly Visible Now

british columbia employment/unemployment. data just a few months old. looks like employment is rising while unemployment not so much

British Columbia monthly employment and unemployment rate

[GRG55]

Re: Cracks Becoming Clearly Visible Now

british columbia employment/unemployment. data just a few months old. looks like employment is rising while unemployment not so much

British Columbia monthly employment and unemployment rate

B.C. is a tale of two economies. The south coast region where the two large cities (the commercial centre of Vancouver and the capital city of Victoria) and most of the population is concentrated has done very well for some time. That is due primarily to a rampant real estate market and related construction, and to the commodity boom - the Port of Vancouver and surrounding facilities handle most of the seaborne export trade for coal, potash, grains and other western Canada commodities. The interior of B.C. is a LOT poorer than the coastal region, and much of money being invested there come from Alberta based resource companies (nat gas development to support the proposed LNG export projects) or wealthier Alberta residents buying recreational properties in the B.C. interior.

The effects of the commodity bust are just starting to be felt in those trade and transport statistics in B.C. The interior housing market is kaput. If the housing bubble on the coast finally bursts it will take out the only remaining support.

Coastal B.C. is not immune from what is happening elsewhere in Western Canada.

[touchring]

Re: Cracks Becoming Clearly Visible Now

Apparently all those Chinese buyers desperate to get their money out of the mainland must have already bought up everything else?
Or could this be Canadians doing it to themselves? With the help of taxpayer backed high ratio mortgage insurance and the Bank of Canada sponsored almost-free-money.

I think if any foreign buyer is stupid enough to pay this price for this house, the governments should not only allow it, they should start encouraging it. .

Perhaps, Vancouver should consider taking the poison pill of letting in 20,000-30,000 Syrians instead so that the Chinese will reconsider coming to Vancouver.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/syri...-000-1.3399834

[GRG55]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

January data in. Downtrends [ ] in Calgary, Edmonton, the capital city of Ottawa and even perpetually depressed Montreal are now firmly evident. Toronto continues to defy gravity, and Vancouver is completely disconnected from this mortal world in every sense. Vancouver is starting to emulate Tokyo circa 1988. And we all know how well that ended.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

If only you could short Vancouver.

[santafe2]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

...Vancouver is completely disconnected from this mortal world in every sense. Vancouver is starting to emulate Tokyo circa 1988. And we all know how well that ended.

If I remember correctly the Ginza was famously selling for about $250,000 per square meter. It was the first great modern real estate bubble or more correctly, land bubble. The land in Tokyo was reportedly worth more than all the land in the US...now that's a bubble.

[GRG55]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

If I remember correctly the Ginza was famously selling for about $250,000 per square meter. It was the first great modern real estate bubble or more correctly, land bubble. The land in Tokyo was reportedly worth more than all the land in the US...now that's a bubble.

One of the funniest things I keep hearing to explain Vancouver is the "limited land" meme. How it's hemmed in by mountains and the ocean, and "they're not making any more land" and so forth. Problem is that old line was the same one used to justify the late 1970s real estate bubble in Vancouver. Have a look at the picture below. Does it look like a lack of land is creating any real barrier? i grew up 16 miles east of the downtown core of Vancouver. There's luxury high rise condos going up all over that neighbourhood now, with individual units priced over $1 million. When the locals start complaining about a "lack of sky", then maybe we'll need to take the reports of a lack of space seriously...

[jk]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

When the locals start complaining about a "lack of sky", then maybe we'll need to take the reports of a lack of space seriously...

no, you mean when they complain of lack of SPACE itself.

[GRG55]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

no, you mean when they complain of lack of SPACE itself.

Some Vancouverites don't seem to much care about space. "Beehive" indeed...
(Davie is a street in the downtown west end)

Bold 30-storey micro-condo tower proposed for Davie Street

APRIL 16, 2015

Could micro-condos help address Vancouver’s housing supply and affordability issues?

Reliance Properties plans to build a 25 to 30-storey tower at 902 Davie Street, a site at the southwest corner of Davie and Hornby streets that is currently occupied by a 7-Eleven convenience store.

The tower will be comprised of micro-units between 175 and 275 square feet, with outdoor gardens every few floors and a rooftop space as well as amenities such as a dining spaces, an electronic library and a study hall...

...Los Angeles-based Neil M. Denari Architects (NMDA) is responsible for the tower’s design of a bold, black ‘bee hive’ that highlight the perimeter dimensions of each micro-condo unit...

...In 2011, the developer transformed Burns Block on 18 Hastings Street into a 30-unit micro-condo development consisting of units between 226 to 291 square feet in size.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

Some Vancouverites don't seem to much care about space. "Beehive" indeed...
(Davie is a street in the downtown west end)

Bold 30-storey micro-condo tower proposed for Davie Street

APRIL 16, 2015

Could micro-condos help address Vancouver’s housing supply and affordability issues?

Reliance Properties plans to build a 25 to 30-storey tower at 902 Davie Street, a site at the southwest corner of Davie and Hornby streets that is currently occupied by a 7-Eleven convenience store.

The tower will be comprised of micro-units between 175 and 275 square feet, with outdoor gardens every few floors and a rooftop space as well as amenities such as a dining spaces, an electronic library and a study hall...

...Los Angeles-based Neil M. Denari Architects (NMDA) is responsible for the tower’s design of a bold, black ‘bee hive’ that highlight the perimeter dimensions of each micro-condo unit...

...In 2011, the developer transformed Burns Block on 18 Hastings Street into a 30-unit micro-condo development consisting of units between 226 to 291 square feet in size.

Sounds like an opportunity for poor university graduates and senior citizens to rediscover living like a University student all over again.

Marketers can focus on the young and fun while ignoring the claustrophobic cramped and borderline malnourished memories part.

[santafe2]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

The tower will be comprised of micro-units between 175 and 275 square feet, with outdoor gardens every few floors and a rooftop space as well as amenities such as a dining spaces, an electronic library and a study hall...

You really can't make this stuff up. I spend a fair amount of time each year living in a Marriott hotel room and my requirements are for a very small kitchen area, a work space, a bathroom and a bed. Average size: 350 square feet. These are jail cells with carpeting and tile.

[santafe2]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

Sounds like an opportunity for poor university graduates and senior citizens to rediscover living like a University student all over again.

Marketers can focus on the young and fun while ignoring the claustrophobic cramped and borderline malnourished memories part.

If you'll construct them of wood to help with the remembrance of extreme, 3rd floor fire danger, the smell of stale beer, stacks of Ramen, and a 20 year old mattress on the floor, I think you've got a winner.

[GRG55]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

You really can't make this stuff up. I spend a fair amount of time each year living in a Marriott hotel room and my requirements are for a very small kitchen area, a work space, a bathroom and a bed. Average size: 350 square feet. These are jail cells with carpeting and tile.

Personally I think the property taxes and the common facility fees are going to kill these things.

Even for a Boomer like me, who may want to stay downtown after going to an evening theatre performance, it makes more sense to book the Marriott for the couple dozen nights each year I may want to do that.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

Personally I think the property taxes and the common facility fees are going to kill these things.

Even for a Boomer like me, who may want to stay downtown after going to an evening theatre performance, it makes more sense to book the Marriott for the couple dozen nights each year I may want to do that.

I wonder if the "tiny home" movement will be hijacked by the tiny condo sprukers?

I'm thinking a fancy Yert might be a good idea, it's harder to tax a moving target.

[jk]

Re: Va Va Voom Vancouver...

i like thinking of the beehive as having hexagonal subunits.