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There have been numerous news reports lately claiming that housing has bottomed and is beginning to turn around, due to an uptick in numbers recently. Here are a few graphs which might shed some light on this.
First, median housing prices, 2006 until now:
Yes, housing prices have gone up this year, and May's numbers also went up from April. This is being reported as some sort of positive sign, despite the fact that housing prices go up EVERY YEAR from January to June. Even during down years, such as the last few, prices went up during the first half of the year. This means nothing.
Here's a graph of home sales:
That slight uptick in the last few months is supposed to be the sign that sales have bottomed out and are heading back up again. Given the multiple false bottoms in sales figures over the past few years, I certainly wouldn't want to put my money on this being the bottom.
The investment community overall, I think, seems to be buying into the "housing is about to turn around" stories which have been coming out in the news. I think they may be in for a shock if prices tank during the second half of the year, as they have for the past 3 years.
First, median housing prices, 2006 until now:
Yes, housing prices have gone up this year, and May's numbers also went up from April. This is being reported as some sort of positive sign, despite the fact that housing prices go up EVERY YEAR from January to June. Even during down years, such as the last few, prices went up during the first half of the year. This means nothing.
Here's a graph of home sales:
That slight uptick in the last few months is supposed to be the sign that sales have bottomed out and are heading back up again. Given the multiple false bottoms in sales figures over the past few years, I certainly wouldn't want to put my money on this being the bottom.
The investment community overall, I think, seems to be buying into the "housing is about to turn around" stories which have been coming out in the news. I think they may be in for a shock if prices tank during the second half of the year, as they have for the past 3 years.
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