New Forum: Government Implode

[FRED]

We have created a new forum to track the impact of the global economic crisis on governments around the world. The objective is to explore the impact of political instability on currency values and asset prices.

I'll start things off.

120,000 people pack streets of Dublin in angry protest against government's handling of economic crisis

Up to 120,000 people marched through Dublin today in an emotional and angry national demonstration over the Irish Government's handling of the economic crisis.

The sheer size of the turnout meant it had to set off earlier than was organised, with the parade stretching the entire length of its two kilometre route at one stage.


Chaos after crowds swarm Fort Lauderdale street for housing help

FORT LAUDERDALE - Thousands of people seeking government-subsidized housing packed the street Saturday morning in front of the Robert P. Kelly Housing Authority building until police shut down the line because the crowd had grown unmanageable.

Officials estimated that 4,500 people were waiting in line at 8 a.m. when the Housing Authority of Fort Lauderdale began distributing the 3,000 available applications for Section 8 housing, a federal program that provides rent subsidies to landlords to help low-income people find affordable housing.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

The Kuwait Times recently printed this article. Sorry, I scoured the KT website and couldn't find a link.

ISLAMIC SYSTEM WAY TO RESOLVE UNEMPLOYMENT

Dr. Ahmad Aziz al-Muzaini, the Secretary of the Shura and Salam Group, said that following Islamic doctrine would be one solution to the problem of unemployment and the excessive numbers of expatriate workers.

Calling on women to take care of their own homes and families rather than employing domestic staff, Dr. Al Muzaini said that by doing so millions of Kuwaiti Dinars transfered outside the country annually would be saved and invested instead in the local economy. If domestic workers proved to be essential, he said, local and other Arab people could do these jobs rather than bringing in expatriates from thousands of miles away.

Dr. Al-Muzaini said that his group has also recommended a temporary suspension of the import of cars to Kuwait, saying that each household in the country currently owns several cars, which is causing numerous accidents and traffic congestion. He also recommended that more women be employed as taxi drivers catering to an all female clientele, which would be in the female passengers interests and ensure their safety.


Takeaways:

The gravy train offered to Kuwaiti citizens over the years is beginning to get too expensive so this is a first effort softening the locals to prepare for the day when they may actually have to work for a living.

Also, the unskilled expats are being put on notice that they are no longer wanted and to start thinking about returning home before the deportations become mandatory.

[krakknisse]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

The hot spots are:
UK:

• Ireland
• Great Britain

Europe:

• Former Soviet block states of Eastern Europe
• Greece
• Spain
• Italy

I gather that Fred doesn't mind stepping on some geographic toes.

Great Britain is:
1. the ninth largest island in the world, located in in the archipelago of the British Isles. Ireland would then be "Little Britain" except that they wouldn't like to be called that. I gather that they would be even more opposed to be considered as a part of the UK.
OR
2. the kingdom formed from the union of England and Scotland, in existence from 1707 to 1801, when Ireland was merged in to form the Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, lasting 1801-1927).

The United Kingdom is conventionally the name of what is formally known as United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, lasting from 1927 until the present.

Europe is the westernmost part of the landmass of Eurasia, including the British Isles. All of Greece, Spain, Italy are part of the European Union, and most of the former Soviet block states of Eastern Europe are also EU members, apart from Belarus and Ukraine.

You also left out my Icelandic brothers, thus depriving them of their rightful and honorable place as first out of the gates in the "FUBAR Country Olympics". Iceland is a part of Europe, as the Americas lost any claim on that mid-Atlantic island when their military forces left Keflavik abruptly in 2006. People interested in a closer look at what's going on in Iceland can head over to http://newsfrettir.com/ (which is a weird Anglicism meaning "newsnews").

You left Portugal out of the PIGS stew with which it is usually rightfully grouped. Portugal also has a high debt to GDP ratio, a large public sector and some corruption.

While I'm at it: Scandiavia is a peninsula comprising Norway and Sweden, but Scandinavian usually includes Norway, Sweden and Denmark, while the Nordic countries and Nordic region are used officially and unambiguously to identify the nations of Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark and the Faroe Islands. I really hope Fred doesn't need these particulars, but fear that "Government Implode" will also reach my home region.

Apart from that, kudos for an interesting topic!

I'd suggest that people brush up on their history skills. For example, take the following:

Which European country went through the following in the 20th century (within recent memory):
A. Civil War
B. A long period of military rule
C. Revolution
D. Being invaded or involved in a major war
E. Chronic fiscal mismanagement under a civilian regime

The answer is of course Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain. Many other European countries were only so lucky as to suffer from a few elements of this potpourri: UK (D, E), France (E), Germany (A, B, C, D, E), Norway (D, E), Sweden (E), Benelux countries (B, D, E), Poland (A, B, C, D, E) etc. etc. etc.

You Americans have no idea how good you have it

[*T*]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

UK:

• Ireland
• Great Britain

The format of this list makes it look like Ireland is part of the UK which as you know it is not.

Edit: Sorry Kraknisse, just read your post, you did a much more comprehensive job!

edit 2: Actually Kraknisse, Great Britain is called that with comparison to Brittany, now part of France, and not Ireland.

[don]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

The national chain restaurant where my granddaughter works has gone to paper plates. Pitched under "green" cover.

I'm waiting for that diner moment when a waitress snaps from one too many "plates" bending in half in her hands and she being billed for the spill.

A Potemkin moment....

[cjppjc]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

I believe the Brits are really sunk.

Btw: Isn't it about that time for MEGA to start pounding us with bad news from that corner of the world?

[cobben]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

Well, being Swedish-American & domiciled in Latvia, with some experience from odd parts of the CIS countries, I would say focus on the Ukraine as the canary for Eastern Europe (and the Swedish banks).

My soviet bred Russian speaking wife derided the Ukrainians as having a "bazaar mentality" (sorry to offend any Ukrainians listening, just telling it like it is), meaning to not expect any reasonable semblance of political order there anytime soon.

The Baltics have come a long way in a short time towards resurrecting their pre-soviet western European way of life, for example here in Latvia they have done a remarkable job in creating a western style police force with relatively little corruption out of the soviet style militia which had an entirely different function in society.

The EU is not going to let their new members slide back down into anarchy, that is simply not an option - unless the EU as a whole goes down.

So I'd watch the left-over states stuck in between the EU and the RF, that is Ukraine & Belarus, but also Modova, Turkey, etc.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

Ukraine is also the canary for the new cold war. Russia had its borders (and influence) pushed back to medieval levels after the cold war. Putin is pushing the envelope outward again.

The invasion of Georgia and the natural gas wars were just wake up calls for the west but the real prize is Ukraine. Russia wants, more than anything, for Ukraine to return securely into it's sphere of influence.

Turkey is safely independent from Russian influence and Belarus is still firmly in the Russian orbit.

Poland and the Baltic states are nice to haves for Russia but it is Ukraine that is crucial to Russia.

[raja]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

Well, being Swedish-American & domiciled in Latvia, with some experience from odd parts of the CIS countries, I would say focus on the Ukraine as the canary for Eastern Europe (and the Swedish banks).

My soviet bred Russian speaking wife derided the Ukrainians as having a "bazaar mentality" (sorry to offend any Ukrainians listening, just telling it like it is), meaning to not expect any reasonable semblance of political order there anytime soon.

I was explaining to my Ukrainian wife that some countries in Europe were in trouble because they had lent money to Ukraine, and she said, "What? Are they crazy? Lend money to Ukraine? Talk to any person on the street in Ukraine and they would tell you that is a foolish idea."

[raja]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

Ukraine is also the canary for the new cold war. Russia had its borders (and influence) pushed back to medieval levels after the cold war. Putin is pushing the envelope outward again.

The invasion of Georgia and the natural gas wars were just wake up calls for the west but the real prize is Ukraine. Russia wants, more than anything, for Ukraine to return securely into it's sphere of influence.

Turkey is safely independent from Russian influence and Belarus is still firmly in the Russian orbit.

Poland and the Baltic states are nice to haves for Russia but it is Ukraine that is crucial to Russia.

Why is Ukraine crucial to Russia? Agriculture?

[cobben]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

Kiev was the capital of the original Rus empire (look up St. Anna of Novgorod if you want to read some interesting history), the Ukrainian language is very closely related to Russian, and is called "little Russian" by the Russians. Ukraine together with "the south" was the breadbasket area of the USSR. The RF still has it's main fleet based in the Krim.

Belarus by the way means White Russia, and is similarly closely related to Russia, but of much less strategic & economic importance, and has never been given a chance to make closer ties with western Europe. Which did not stop the IMF from bailing Belarus out also recently. Everything I've ever heard about Belarus makes me completely uninterested in going there for some reason. The Black Sea area of Ukraine on the other hand could be a new Riviera if things straightened out there. Odessa was once a major European cultural center I believe.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

Take a look at a map of the region. Russia occupies the northern portion of the continent with one finger of territory extending down to the Caucasus.

With Ukraine and Kazhakstan independent or friendly to the west, that corridor to the Caucasus is narrowed to a 600 mile pinchpoint. For Russia to lose influence over the Caucasus is unthinkable. The key to keeping influence there is maintaining control over Ukraine, at least the eastern half of Ukraine

[c1ue]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

The Ukraine is vital for many reasons, but the primary reason is Sevastopol.

Russia fought numerous wars with Turkey, the UK, and others in order to get and keep a warm water port.

Sevastopol is where the Russian fleet is based. Furthermore the Ukraine sits astraddle almost all of the major rail and pipeline routes going between Russia and Europe.

This is why the Ukraine turning away from the Russian sphere is seen as an act of war.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

All true.

The eastern half of Ukraine is mostly populated by ethnic Russians who, of course, sympathize with Russia. The western half of Ukraine is predominantly ethnic Ukranian.

Now that Russia is working hard to undermine the current pro western government in Ukraine it is becoming increasingly difficult to hold that divided country together. Either Ukraine falls completely into the Russian orbit again or it splits in half. (my guess is that it will be the former.)

So, the next big question is: does eastern europe follow the same path as Ukraine?

[GRG55]

Re: New Forum: Government Implode

The Ukraine is vital for many reasons, but the primary reason is Sevastopol.

Russia fought numerous wars with Turkey, the UK, and others in order to get and keep a warm water port.

Sevastopol is where the Russian fleet is based. Furthermore the Ukraine sits astraddle almost all of the major rail and pipeline routes going between Russia and Europe.

This is why the Ukraine turning away from the Russian sphere is seen as an act of war.

Isn't the Crimea an ongoing source of dispute between Russia and Ukraine? I gather it was taken from the Turks by the Russians, and only appended to Ukraine [by the Russians] in the mid-20th century. I remember listening to a Russian-born colleague at work in the early '90's telling me how Crimea was really part of Russia and how "it tore his heart out" when Yeltsin "gave it away" in the post-USSR aftermath.