Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

[chr5648]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

Sorry for late answer. I just not look here everyday.
Texts are in polish but you can use google translator should be ok to understand

about use of electric energy in 2009

http://energetyka.wnp.pl/zuzycie-ene...824_1_0_0.html

about possible less deficit for 2010

http://forsal.pl/artykuly/397562,pol...adal_rzad.html

They expect 3.5% grow of GDP at the moment (export part more than 2% in it) and EU is expecting 2,8% (up from previous 1,8%) for Poland. Unemployment is growing at the same time. (record high for 3 years). Inflation is above target (2.5%) as I remember so there is in my opinion good possibility that Central Bank can put rates up in future.

Thanks for the info

[sandwind]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

Polish economy is accelerating only on paper.

- Unemployment growing - 13% February from 12,7% in January
- Sells down
- Deficit 52 mld was announced to be 10-15 mld less but now they are reporting it that only in Q1 was 25mld
- The plan for service the external debt for this year in budget is fulfilled in 40% at the moment
-Gains from VAT tax were planned to raise 10% in January and February in reality dropped 8%
- Consumption dropped 1% in January and 1% in February

http://translate.google.pl/translate...ospodarka.html

[chr5648]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

If that doesn't show the government is lying, then this should

the graph is frightening

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/12/bu...12pension.html

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ht=perspective

[D-Mack]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

Polish Central Banker Skrzypek Was Often at Odds With Cabinet#


By Monika Rozlal and Douglas Lytle
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Polish central bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek, who died today in a plane crash along with President Lech Kaczynski, frequently found himself at odds with the government and colleagues over monetary policy.


In the weeks leading up to his death, the 46-year-old Skrzypek was caught up in his latest battle, this time over relations with the International Monetary Fund and rules for calculating the central bank’s profit, which the government wanted to use to reduce the state budget deficit.


It was his association with the president and the Law & Justice party that led to his being named in 2007 to lead monetary policy in the European Union’s largest former communist country. With no prior central bank experience, Skrzypek drew on his time running Poland’s largest bank PKO Bank Polski SA.


“I remember Governor Skrzypek as a young man who was learning fast and was persistently pursuing his goals,” Marian Noga, a former member of the Monetary Policy Council who worked with Skrzypek for three years, said in a phone interview today. “The Polish economy has made enormous progress in recent years and Skrzypek also had some contribution to it.”
It may be the policy conflicts, however, that serve as a lasting reminder of his time in power.


...


Skrzypek replaced Leszek Balcerowicz, who called for quick adoption of the euro, while he himself always stressed that Poland shouldn’t rush with switching the currencies until “it’s advantageous for the country.”


Critical Colleagues


His views often drew criticism from colleagues and the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has been seeking to cut the budget deficit enough to get the country into the euro area.


...


http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...h-cabinet.html

[doom&gloom]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

one thing is for sure, with the Polish air crash, lots gonna change there very soon.

[Ghent12]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

one thing is for sure, with the Polish air crash, lots gonna change there very soon.

I was just thinking that. If it weren't for my tin-foil hat, I would probably suspect foul play, given the personnel lost in the crash.

[sandwind]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

one thing is for sure, with the Polish air crash, lots gonna change there very soon.

After 2h they started to clean goverment positions that were occpied by people of died president like, taking control over achives and documents and searching houses of the victims of the crash like the guy who was coordinating special sevices in the past Wasserman. So reaction was quick.

Generally there is no ilusion that rulling party is holding almost all the power at the moment. As the Kaczynski president was replaced by temporary replacment Komorowski who is member of it. Big issue is who will rule central bank. Skrzypek was person nominated by Kaczynski new person will be rather from oposite side.

[sandwind]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

Short update:

Officiall CPI rised to 5% (2.5% target),~9,6% food year to year.
Statistics shows people starting to pull out money form banking system (savings in banks of people are decaying )
If Greece go bust means PLN will lose some of its value as Germany and French banks will pull out money from Poland.

[chr5648]

Re: Failed Polish Bond Auction Raises Serious Questions For Emerging Markets

Short update:

Officiall CPI rised to 5% (2.5% target),~9,6% food year to year.
Statistics shows people starting to pull out money form banking system (savings in banks of people are decaying )
If Greece go bust means PLN will lose some of its value as Germany and French banks will pull out money from Poland.

Yup, A buddy of mine was there 2 months ago and he said the inflation was horrific.