Bye, Bye Dubai

[FRED]

[Slimprofits]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

"There isn't a market at all worth mentioning."

[tombat1913]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

But really, who's suprised? Is there anybody reading this who didn't foresee this happening?

The first time I went to Dubai there was a large expanse of desert between the city of Dubai and Jebel Ali to the south. When I returned about 2 years later the expanse was not so expansive anymore, but why?

Wild speculation, nothing more.

Man made sand islands in the shape of palm trees worth millions of dollars, give me a break!

[metalman]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

But really, who's surprised?

how many times can you surprise the same people?

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top
• October 2006: Recession Q4 2007
  
• December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market
• September 15, 2008: Fed Funds spread signals crash

you can surprise most people over and over again for at least a decade.

i'm thinking... this global depression knocks the "surprise" out of everyone for a generation.

[zoog]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

I love where the real estate agent says things might be tough for "...the next three, six, or even nine months". Yeah how about years instead of months.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

The funniest part is when the Realtor says:

"It may not come back in 3 months...

Maybe 6 months...

It could take 9 months."

Well dear Ms. Dubai Realtor: try 6.6 years as per an excellent paper posted on this website.

[goadam1]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

What a waste. Dubai looks as ass ugly as Vegas. At least the tech bubble gave me cool internet stuff.

It says too much about our whole system that the global economy is driven by making crap.

[Sharky]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

Funny how the agent talks of 10 or 20% as a big drop in price.

I wonder how much the speculation in Dubai was driven by oil and how much by the FIRE economy? Unlike residential property, prices for skyscrapers built on spec seem like they would much more sensitive to economic conditions. It seems like it won't be too long before price drops approach more like 60 or 80%+, particularly if the price of oil stays down.

[metalman]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

Funny how the agent talks of 10 or 20% as a big drop in price.

I wonder how much the speculation in Dubai was driven by oil and how much by the FIRE economy? Unlike residential property, prices for skyscrapers built on spec seem like they would much more sensitive to economic conditions. It seems like it won't be too long before price drops approach more like 60 or 80%+, particularly if the price of oil stays down.

or 100%.......

[mfyahya]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

Funny how the agent talks of 10 or 20% as a big drop in price.

I wonder how much the speculation in Dubai was driven by oil and how much by the FIRE economy? Unlike residential property, prices for skyscrapers built on spec seem like they would much more sensitive to economic conditions. It seems like it won't be too long before price drops approach more like 60 or 80%+, particularly if the price of oil stays down.

As GRG55 mentioned in the other Dubai thread, the price of oil did not have much to do with the real estate craze here. It was funny money from around the world sloshing around this tax free haven, along with myopic speculators motivated by greed. I wouldn't write Dubai off completely though, the neighboring emirate of Abu Dhabi has unbelievable oil wealth (despite the decline in oil prices) and may help them out, as they did with their stealth bailout of Emirates Airlines recently.

Another major difference in the real esate market here when compared to other bubble cities, is that rental yields were always very high (10-12%). Those $300K two bedroom apartments were renting for $30K a year. There was a real housing shortage throughout the boom, and it's only beginning to ease. Next year might be a totally different story though.

[GRG55]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

As GRG55 mentioned in the other Dubai thread, the price of oil did not have much to do with the real estate craze here. It was funny money from around the world sloshing around this tax free haven, along with myopic speculators motivated by greed. I wouldn't write Dubai off completely though, the neighboring emirate of Abu Dhabi has unbelievable oil wealth (despite the decline in oil prices) and may help them out, as they did with their stealth bailout of Emirates Airlines recently.

Another major difference in the real esate market here when compared to other bubble cities, is that rental yields were always very high (10-12%). Those $300K two bedroom apartments were renting for $30K a year. There was a real housing shortage throughout the boom, and it's only beginning to ease. Next year might be a totally different story though.

Yes, Dubai is going the same way as coastal Spain, Ireland, Central London, Shanghai, Sydney, Vancouver, Florida, Phoenix, and every other grossly inflated real estate locale worldwide.


But mfyahya has a valid point. Think about all that crumbling infrastructure that the developed economies intend to rebuild at gawd knows what cost, in their efforts to "restart" their moribund economies. Now think about which jurisdiction has just overbuilt every aspect of its infrastructure, and can compete very effectively on three critical fronts [in addition to the modern, overbuilt, and now cheaper rent infrastructure] with virtually any developed economy:

• essentially zero taxes [personal and corporate!];
• low, low, low energy costs;
• cheap [imported] labour.

I agree with myyahya's observation...don't write of Dubai completely.

[and I might add that Dubai, to me, isn't much worse than almost all of SoCal, except for that narrow strip along the coast that gets burned out every few years - I can't stand either landscape ]

[GRG55]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

Funny how the agent talks of 10 or 20% as a big drop in price...

Not much different from every other real estate bubble jurisdiction when it rolled over. She could have been in SoCal or Florida in 2007...sounded exactly the same.

Prices rising 20% per annum. "All of a sudden" they decline 20%. That's a 40% shift from expectations. Feel like a total collapse. Human nature is the same. Everywhere. No matter what the nation, region, religion, language or skin colour.

[Guest]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

Not much different from every other real estate bubble jurisdiction when it rolled over. She could have been in SoCal or Florida in 2007...sounded exactly the same. ... Human nature is the same. Everywhere. No matter what the nation, region, religion, language or skin colour.

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[Quincy K]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

what exactly does this lady think is going to change in three short months? unbelievable the ignorance. it's the end of a ponzi scheme. if you don't already have a chair, you are going to be on your a_s.

[audrey_girl]

Re: Bye, Bye Dubai

oh dear, who will now buy our treasury bills?

hopefully, our dear friends the Chinese and Russians [obvious sarcasm]