Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

[Sapiens]

Hennecke Says U.S. Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression': Video
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Martin Hennecke, a senior manager at Tyche Group Ltd., talks with Bloomberg's Paul Gordon in Hong Kong about the outlook for the U.S. and global economies and his investment strategy. (Source: Bloomberg)

[Guest]

Re: Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

Watched Hennecke last night - and forwarded it to our German office. Sky is turning black with apocalyptic storm portents for our future over here. Meanwhile, John Mauldin showcases Louis Vincent Gave in his latest "Outside The Box" opinion piece, who sagely opines the inflationary pressures will / must abate and become muted as we enter recession. All embellished with weird reasoning that the inability of governments to raise interest rates is a "clear harbinger" of muted inflation. Mercifully, Mauldin has now desisted from inserting his incessant Safari-Laden travelogues at the end of these macro-economic "op-ed" pieces, although his fuzzy and cocooned macro economic conclusions persist. Louis Vincent Gave has in the past been unbelievably mis-informative on Peak Cheap Oil. As for Mauldin, he is an overpaid, oversophisticated, foppish twit of an investment advisor. Henneke in this interview comes across as sharp, no-nonsense, level headed and most of all CORRECT in comparison to these other two guys.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

Gerard Minack of JP Morgan Sydney

'The outlook is dark and gloomy, because the sky is full of chickens coming home to roost'

[gobears]

Re: Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

Would be greatly appreciative is someone could shed some light on the Mauldin/Gave article. I was totally convinced of the inflation story until I read that, and it gave me pause. I am still positioned for inflation, but can't help but think eventually deflation will set in. Unemployment and other "lagging" effects have not set in yet. More layoffs are being announced every day, and I expect demand will eventually plummet for all but the essential goods. That should narrow the non-oil trade gap substantially. As for the oil trade gap, all 1st world countries face that problem.

[Guest]

Re: Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

Gobears - dig your avatar there. Very mean looking fellow I wouldn't want to run into on a lonely country lane.

With regard to Mauldin and Gave, and the whole deflation schtick - here's the thing. You are thinking "US CENTRICALLY" and that is going to be potentially quite misleading to the broader actionable trends in the next decade. This is going to be all about the US fading into weakness while another half of the world surges into ever more strength. Study the trajectories of every country that has entered a robust industrialisation in the past 150 years. Their growth inflections can withstand an astonishing amount of disruption.

If you find this thesis hard to believe, my view is that the people who are instilling these grave doubts in you are hazardous to your opportunities and ultimately your longer term financial health in the next ten years. If it were me, I would simply fire them (all). And Mauldin, with his silk ascot and his archly delivered glossy travelogues, I would can for first, just because he's siphoning more money for bad advice than all the others. Of course he thinks his advice is highly valuable - which is why he charges so much for it. Conceit can be highly persuasive.

[moonshot]

Re: Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

Agree with Lukester on the global growth story, which will drive the demand for commodities which, by virtue of a global market, will drive inflation in the US despite the economic slowdown.

It seems that a risk to this scenario is a nearly simultaneous demand drop from nearly all of the developed world (much of which faces similar issues, to varying degrees, as the US). How quickly can the emerging markets countries re-tool parts of their economies to encourage and feed domestic consumption demand?

As has been pointed out before, the stock market and the economy need not move in sync (e.g., China, India), so while we might see strong growth in those countries over the next decade, the equity markets will probably be a bit of a rollercoaster.

[metalman]

Re: Hennecke Says US Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'

Gobears - dig your avatar there. Very mean looking fellow I wouldn't want to run into on a lonely country lane.

With regard to Mauldin and Gave, and the whole deflation schtick - here's the thing. You are thinking "US CENTRICALLY" and that is going to be potentially quite misleading to the broader actionable trends in the next decade. This is going to be all about the US fading into weakness while another half of the world surges into ever more strength. Study the trajectories of every country that has entered a robust industrialisation in the past 150 years. Their growth inflections can withstand an astonishing amount of disruption.

If you find this thesis hard to believe, my view is that the people who are instilling these grave doubts in you are hazardous to your opportunities and ultimately your longer term financial health in the next ten years. If it were me, I would simply fire them (all). And Mauldin, with his silk ascot and his archly delivered glossy travelogues, I would can for first, just because he's siphoning more money for bad advice than all the others. Of course he thinks his advice is highly valuable - which is why he charges so much for it. Conceit can be highly persuasive.

ej interviewed Louis-Vincent Gave, GaveKal nov. 2007. same old story... deflation coming. at least mish et al offer free bad advice.

the mauldin/bonner talking down to the hoi polloi biz model is really, really annoying.

why is it so hard for these guys to understand that the miracle was getting anyone to pay in real things for irredeemable currency, and that the post 1971 paper dollar for stuff trade has been discovered for what it is, a gigantic parlor trick? some stuff may depreciate in dollars in the usa but stuff brought in from oversees or that competes with stuff from overseas will keep appreciating against dollars. what is so hard to understand about that? ave. house prices go to $100k and gas to $10... 'macmansions divided into multi-family homes' just as was said here in early 2005, taxes drop off so can't afford cops so more crime, drive less and in puny cars, just like any other frigging 3rd world country. obvious, ain't it?