Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

[Sapiens]

Imagine a day when machines walk among us, expressing thoughts, emotions, demanding their rights. Today, we are breathing intelligence, even life, into creatures of silicon and steel.

It takes imagination to envision a way of living other than the present existing circumstances; there is a very real possibility that the extinction of the Price System will come once a certain critical number of us collectively comprehend the toxicity of exponential growth and accrued interest.

[Rajiv]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

exponential growth and accrued interest.

See also

The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See

[Jay]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

See also

The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See

Rajiv, my one problem with these excellent lectures is that the logrithmic function as it relates to resource depletion assumes there is no demand destruction as prices rise. Look what happened in the 70's when we had peak oil, the peak curve was shifted to the right. Why not again?

[Rajiv]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

You hit the nail on the head -- What generally follows exponential growth is often a sudden demand destruction -- in other words a catastrophic population collapse -- this phenomenon has been seen in bacterial colonies

See Exponential Growth - Humans, be smarter than yeast!

Time to act on humankind's big favourites of "Exponential Growth" - the new (excessive comfort) and also the old (many children) "growth factors" call for new ways. Their ethical and governance dimensions are breaking beyond today's very basics of politics, economy, society and self. No one dares touch them, but negligence is not an option.


Dan Chay explains in a few minutes why exponential growth must lead to collapse. he shows examples from the world of bacteria and asks "Are Humans Smarter Than Yeast?". Dan hopes so, and urges us to become aware of taking a turn on the growth issue in our rapidly growing societies. Especially, because the obvious effects of exceeded growth appear very sudden and when it is already too late - to sustain the "good times":

Let's take a look at humans favourites: Economic Growth and Population Growth.



ECONOMIC GROWTH

The compass of political decisions today is always economic growth. Even in the (over)developed industrial nations. Any critic of this is quickly wiped out of the picture of any inter/national meeting. Growth is daily re-iterated by almost all politicians, economists and business people.

This paradigm overshadows and underlies all major decisions. Not only in the G8, but in almost all governments; except, maybe, Bhutan; which sets its bets on Gross National Happiness (natural wealth, spiritual wealth, cultural wealth, economic wealth).

Economic growth is treated like the "heart-beat" of modern society, the "untouchable holy cow", like a new religious dogma being the very reason of all the good things in the world. It is the the very essence of today(!)'s capitalist economical - but it is simply not possible in a system with limited frameworks. Earth is a limited system... resources like minerals, water, food, land, shelter, energy are being "eaten up" at a crazy pace that will not last much longer. This is why some food production areas are closed and huge rainforest areas are burned by governments eager for (bio)fuel production from crops or palms.



OVERSHOOT & COLLAPSE

Exponential growth if not controlled, leads to overshoot and collapse: a sudden, rapid, catastrophic collapse of large parts of the system. If in a forest that can feed fifty elk, the elk population multiplies to two hundred, and the food is all eaten up beyond natural regeneration rate, - the population will not decline to fifty, but maybe to five, in miserable conditions! A fall into poverty, violence and culture (the accumulated societal achievements) included.
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(contd)

See also from Planetary Rescue Operations - The Management School of Restorative Business

The Death of Homo Sapiens Sapiens

1. Killed by Homo Economicus
2. Domination by Disinformation
   
3. Is a Future Possible?
   
4. Exponential Growth Economy and Oil
   
5. Where Is All the Money?
6. Exporting Democracy to the Middle East

[sadsack]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

You hit the nail on the head -- What generally follows exponential growth is often a sudden demand destruction -- in other words a catastrophic population collapse -- this phenomenon has been seen in bacterial colonies

See Exponential Growth - Humans, be smarter than yeast!

See also Predator-prey population relationships - after all, mankind is the ultimate predator:

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/gl...predation.html

http://www.tiem.utk.edu/bioed/bealsm...ator-prey.html

ttp://www.math.duke.edu/education/ccp/materials/diffcalc/predprey/pred1.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka-Volterra_equation


Ultimately, the predator population experiences a catastrophic decline upon exhaustion of a sustainable prey propulation. In the case of mankind, the "prey" is the rest of the world's species (among other things) . . .

[Rajiv]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

just updated my post above -- you may find the additional links interesting

[Jay]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

You hit the nail on the head -- What generally follows exponential growth is often a sudden demand destruction -- in other words a catastrophic population collapse -- this phenomenon has been seen in bacterial colonies

There is a big gap between sudden demand destruction and a catastrophic population collapse. We are talking about the real world, not a test tube. The population in this curve is oil, not bacteria. I don't see how there will be a catastrophic collapse in oil reserves. Bigger straws are expensive. The market economy worked in the 70's, why not now? Bacteria in a test tube don't have to face the market. Again, a great lecture on the exponential function, and an important truth, especially in finance, but I don't see demand destruction of oil leading to collapse of oil reserves, just the curve shifting rightward again.

[Rajiv]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

The question I have for you is "Why is economic growth a necessity?"

The world population today is growing at 1.17% per year (2007 est) -- so why is real GDP growth of 3-4% considered necessary even in a rich countries like US and European countries, where population is growing at a slower rate.

And how is this real GDP growth to be achieved?

Thinking along those lines may help answer your questions -- and this I believe has been one of the key elements of Sapiens', Lukester's, and perhaps my posts.

The bacteria in the test tube face a limited resource --(food!) in the face of a need to continue growing -- that is what leads to a sudden collapse ( not a steady state population) See also Sadsack's post -- and also the concept of "overshoot"

You may want to look at "THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE"

ABSTRACT

The Olduvai theory has been called unthinkable, preposterous, absurd, dangerous, self-fulfilling, and self-defeating. I offer it, however, as an inductive theory based on world energy and population data and on what I’ve seen during the past 30 years in some 50 nations on all continents except Antarctica. It is also based on my experience in electrical engineering and energy management systems, my hobbies of anthropology and archaeology, and a lifetime of reading in various fields.

The theory is defined by the ratio of world energy production (use) and world population. The details are worked out. The theory is easy. It states that the life expectancy of Industrial Civilization is less than or equal to 100 years: 1930-2030.

World energy production per capita from 1945 to 1973 grew at a breakneck speed of 3.45 %/year. Next from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979, it slowed to a sluggish 0.64 %/year. Then suddenly —and for the first time in history — energy production per capita took a long-term decline of 0.33 %/year from 1979 to 1999. The Olduvai theory explains the 1979 peak and the subsequent decline. More to the point, it says that energy production per capita will fall to its 1930 value by 2030, thus giving Industrial Civilization a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.

Should this occur, any number of factors could be cited as the 'causes' of collapse. I believe, however, that the collapse will be strongly correlated with an 'epidemic' of permanent blackouts of high-voltage electric power networks — worldwide. Briefly explained: "When the electricity goes out, you are back in the Dark Age. And the Stone Age is just around the corner."

The Olduvai theory, of course, may be proved wrong. But, as of now, it cannot be rejected by the historic world energy production and population data.

Also, specific to the Petroleum Industry is this paper "Repeated Overshoot and Collapse Behavior: An Example from the Petroleum Industry"

Repeated overshoot and collapse behavior is commonly observed both in manufacturing and service industries, as well as in other social and ecological systems. This paper uses an example from the petroleum industry to illustrate a causal structure that can give rise to such behavior. Increasing business unit performance repeatedly erodes and overshoots the capacity of the business to continue to produce increasing performance. When business unit performance falls due to eroded capacity, the capacity gradually recovers, eventually enabling resumption of business growth. Changing the capacity acquisition policy shifts business performance behavior from repeated overshoot and collapse to desired exponential growth. Model extensions, including balancing capacity acquisition against the risk of having too much capacity in a market downturn, are discussed.

And of course as you run out of limited resources, sometimes, you may never recover!

Also you may find Congressman Bartlett's lectures in the congress about Peak oil

Two sets of videos -- the first of the first set is below

[Jay]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

The bacteria have no other means to make more food, and the food that they do have is easily accessible right to the the last morsel. We have other forms of energy and oil becomes harder and harder to get, yet is still plentiful.

[Sapiens]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

The bacteria have no other means to make more food, and the food that they do have is easily accessible right to the the last morsel. We have other forms of energy and oil becomes harder and harder to get, yet is still plentiful.

Jay,

Delusion is not an option.

One of the fundamental points is that the present economic system is not suitable for a finite planet.

Second, regardless of the efficiency to harvest and transform environmental energy into beneficial work, if population growth is not restrained then we will soon exhaust our planet’s ecosystem.

You didn’t answer Rajiv’s question, so I ask you: Why is economic growth necessary beyond a sustainable level?

[Jay]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

Jay,

Delusion is not an option.

One of the fundamental points is that the present economic system is not suitable for a finite planet.

Second, regardless of the efficiency to harvest and transform environmental energy into beneficial work, if population growth is not restrained then we will soon exhaust our planet’s ecosystem.

You didn’t answer Rajiv’s question, so I ask you: Why is economic growth necessary beyond a sustainable level?

Sapiens, I make no statement about GDP in the future, US or the world. I make no claims about the future of the economic system, just what I see as an issue with exponential growth as it relates to oil in particular. That isolated point doesn't seem delusional to me at all.

[sadsack]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

Jay,

Delusion is not an option.

One of the fundamental points is that the present economic system is not suitable for a finite planet.

Second, regardless of the efficiency to harvest and transform environmental energy into beneficial work, if population growth is not restrained then we will soon exhaust our planet’s ecosystem.

You didn’t answer Rajiv’s question, so I ask you: Why is economic growth necessary beyond a sustainable level?

God help me, I'll answer that question -

Excess production is necessary if, and only if, mankind is ultimately able to spread "its scourge" (as the eco-freaks would have us believe) beyond our little blue marble.

If mankind is content to remain bound to the planet of its birth, then yes, unequivocally, sustainable development is overwhelmingly preferred.

Sometimes I wonder whether, in the pillaging of the planet, mankind has in effect been acting as the seed, from which other worlds in other times may be implanted . . .

FWIW - the pessimist is probably nothing more than a bitterly disappointed optimist/idealist.

[Sapiens]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

God help me, I'll answer that question -

Excess production is necessary if, and only if, mankind is ultimately able to spread "its scourge" (as the eco-freaks would have us believe) beyond our little blue marble.

If mankind is content to remain bound to the planet of its birth, then yes, unequivocally, sustainable development is overwhelmingly preferred.

LOL, reminds me of this:

Gilgamesh, whither rovest thou?
The life thou pursuest thou shalt not find.
When the gods created mankind,
Death for mankind they set aside,
Life in their own hands retaining.
Thou, Gilgamesh, let full be thy belly
Make thou merry by day and by night.
Of each day make thou a feast of rejoicing,
Day and night dance thou and play
Let thy garments be sparkling and fresh,
Thy head be washed, bathe thou in water.
Pay heed to the little one that holds thy hand,
Let thy spouse delight in thy bosom,
For this is the task of mankind.

In regards to this:

Sometimes I wonder whether, in the pillaging of the planet, mankind has in effect been acting as the seed, from which other worlds in other times may be implanted . . .

I have wondered the same thing...

[Sidewinder]

Re: Beyond Human: The Age of Androids

Perhaps there is hope, but only if we act responsibly...

http://www.eco-sphere.com/home.htm

SW