Shiller on Housing Bubble

[metalman]

anyone post this yet? prof. shiller tries to say we're not going to have another great depression.

yes, "we have bernanke" so he won't make the same mistakes as the fed made in the 1930s. noooooo! he'll make the mistakes the head of argentina's central bank made in the early 1990s.

btw, does he look like he needs a serious vacation or what?

[Verrocchio]

Re: Shiller on Housing Bubble

Good one, MM.

"...two trillion of value lost already, and it's not over."

"...major misalignment... that correction is not going to be stopped by the Fed."

"If this isn't handled right, this could be a serious recession."

[fazsha]

Re: Shiller on Housing Bubble

From Time Magazine, Dec. 6th, 1937:



In the U. S. last year, some 250,000 people built new houses. Four million bought new automobiles. What this fact proves about U. S. mores is debatable. What it proves about the U. S. construction business is entirely clear. The U. S. housing boom, hopefully anticipated long before construction reached its 1934 Depression low of 50,000 units a year from a 1925 high of 950,000 units, has signally failed to materialize.



In his message to Congress when it convened three weeks ago, Franklin Roosevelt promised soon to deliver another, discussing means of ending the current Recession. Last week he did so. Read to both Houses while the President was embarking on a fishing trip, the second message to the extra session took the form of a grand-scale ground-plan to revive U. S. industry by a nationwide housing drive backed by private capital.



Said the President: "From the point of view of widespread and sustained economic recovery, housing constitutes the largest and most promising single field for private enterprise. Housing construction has not kept pace with either the needs or growth of our population. From 1930 to 1937, inclusive, the average annual number of new dwelling units constructed in the United States was 180,000 as contrasted with an annual average of 800,000 in the seven years prior to 1930. In addition, much of our existing housing has seriously deteriorated, or has been demolished."

[WDCRob]

Re: Shiller on Housing Bubble

anyone post this yet? prof. shiller tries to say we're not going to have another great depression.

It'd be interesting to hear him answer EJ's comments that inflationary crises result from political choices. In this interview at least he seems to be repeating the Bernanke position that a severe recession will eventually bring inflation under control.

[metalman]

Re: Shiller on Housing Bubble

From Time Magazine, Dec. 6th, 1937:



In the U. S. last year, some 250,000 people built new houses. Four million bought new automobiles. What this fact proves about U. S. mores is debatable. What it proves about the U. S. construction business is entirely clear. The U. S. housing boom, hopefully anticipated long before construction reached its 1934 Depression low of 50,000 units a year from a 1925 high of 950,000 units, has signally failed to materialize.



In his message to Congress when it convened three weeks ago, Franklin Roosevelt promised soon to deliver another, discussing means of ending the current Recession. Last week he did so. Read to both Houses while the President was embarking on a fishing trip, the second message to the extra session took the form of a grand-scale ground-plan to revive U. S. industry by a nationwide housing drive backed by private capital.



Said the President: "From the point of view of widespread and sustained economic recovery, housing constitutes the largest and most promising single field for private enterprise. Housing construction has not kept pace with either the needs or growth of our population. From 1930 to 1937, inclusive, the average annual number of new dwelling units constructed in the United States was 180,000 as contrasted with an annual average of 800,000 in the seven years prior to 1930. In addition, much of our existing housing has seriously deteriorated, or has been demolished."

nice find and welcome!

it can be said that the founding father of america's socialist real estate policies date back to fdr. they got a big boost under ronald reagan with with 1986 'tax reform act' that gave tax breaks to real estate at the expense of other industries.