2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030. Thomas Frey

[Ghent12]

Re: 2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030. Thomas Frey

Huh? Can you say GATT?!!!

Can you explain?

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: 2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030. Thomas Frey

Robotic cars will be phased in over the next ten years. The technology is already available off the shelf and is available in parts in most cars in some fashion. For instance, some cars offer automatic braking if a danger is sensed. Other cars offer lane departure warning, etc. And, of course, GPS navigation is ubiquitous. All that remains is for one manufacturer to include all the disparate features in one car.

FIrst, it will be available on top end vehicles like the Mercedes S Class and then, likely, only as an optional smart high speed cruise control at highway speeds. (high speed highway driving is probably the easiest problem for the computer to solve.) As the technology gets better and cheaper it will find itself trickling down to basic models as standard equipment with the ability to drive even in chaotic urban environments. It is said the timeline for robotic cars to be available as standard equipment on every car is about ten years.

As for whether the average public will embrace autonomous cars, I'd say the answer will be yes. Every technological advance is usually met with skepticism, with, you know, the bell curve of innovators, early adopters late adopters, etc. But it will come. Also, given the absolute carnage of automobile deaths (virtually all related to human error), at some point, there will be a social push from liability lawyers and Mothers Against Drunk Driving groups that will advocate for the embrace of autonomous cars sooner rather than later.

Greg

[Ghent12]

Re: 2 Billion Jobs to Disappear by 2030. Thomas Frey

Robotic cars will be phased in over the next ten years. The technology is already available off the shelf and is available in parts in most cars in some fashion. For instance, some cars offer automatic braking if a danger is sensed. Other cars offer lane departure warning, etc. And, of course, GPS navigation is ubiquitous. All that remains is for one manufacturer to include all the disparate features in one car.

FIrst, it will be available on top end vehicles like the Mercedes S Class and then, likely, only as an optional smart high speed cruise control at highway speeds. (high speed highway driving is probably the easiest problem for the computer to solve.) As the technology gets better and cheaper it will find itself trickling down to basic models as standard equipment with the ability to drive even in chaotic urban environments. It is said the timeline for robotic cars to be available as standard equipment on every car is about ten years.

As for whether the average public will embrace autonomous cars, I'd say the answer will be yes. Every technological advance is usually met with skepticism, with, you know, the bell curve of innovators, early adopters late adopters, etc. But it will come. Also, given the absolute carnage of automobile deaths (virtually all related to human error), at some point, there will be a social push from liability lawyers and Mothers Against Drunk Driving groups that will advocate for the embrace of autonomous cars sooner rather than later.

Greg

I honestly don't see that happening, especially not in such a short period of time. UAVs are vastly less safe than traditional aircraft, for instance, and there is no reason to suspect that driverless cars will be any different. In some ways, UAVs have some pretty good advantages in implementation which is why they are far more prevalent than autonomous ground robots--the sky is big and there is plenty of room to maneuver around traffic. Not so with ground vehicles.

While there may be improvements in terms of computer-assisted driving, actual autonomy is a goal that is too far off to contemplate seriously.