Central California Housing Crash

[Rajiv]

[olivegreen]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Now am I being too "conspiracy" oriented when I look at the fires going on right now in California and the housing crisis? Are they related? How does insurance work?

[rabot10]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Now am I being too "conspiracy" oriented when I look at the fires going on right now in California and the housing crisis? Are they related? How does insurance work?

Same thing I was thinking - if I had a home now in So Calif I would sprinkle a little gas on the walls and get the family out of town

[olivegreen]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Thank you Rick Bishop. I'm not so off the wall as I thought. It would be tempting wouldn't it... i guess i wouldn't invest in an insurance company at this point

[Tet]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Same thing I was thinking - if I had a home now in So Calif I would sprinkle a little gas on the walls and get the family out of town

I remember being evacuated from the Harmony Grove fires in 1996 and it turned out many people lit their own homes on fire because they were underwater on their mortgages. I know of two just in the few blocks around where I lived at the time. I think there were about 56 homes in that area that burned down. We've got all the makings of the same situation.

[olivegreen]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Of course... if we were "really" into this conspiracy thing...

If I were a Bank holding a mortgage for a house that ... no.... better not go there... that would be too awful... but then there's...

If I were a government of a state whose houses were going down the drain value wise.... no... that's just as bad....

I think I better stop thinking...

[olivegreen]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Of course I can't stop thinking...

If I were a bank... do I want the keys to a worthless house?

or

Do I want the insurance money that is sure to come down the pipes?

AND

If I were a government... do I want a state full of abandoned worthless real estate?

or

Do I want the houses replaced with lots of money in the hands of the people who lost their houses for the local economy and lots of people put back to work to build those houses?

or

Do I want a ghost state?

AND

If I were a builder...

oh hell... i'm going to bed...

[DemonD]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

I remember being evacuated from the Harmony Grove fires in 1996 and it turned out many people lit their own homes on fire because they were underwater on their mortgages. I know of two just in the few blocks around where I lived at the time. I think there were about 56 homes in that area that burned down. We've got all the makings of the same situation.

While I might think the same as you guys, I would just like to remind the forum that many many homes were lost in similar fires in 2003 especially in San Diego, back when there was pretty much zero defaults. With conditions as they are, you don't even need fuel accellerant- just a cigarette to the side of a road and you've got a whole wildfire going.

[GRG55]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

While I might think the same as you guys, I would just like to remind the forum that many many homes were lost in similar fires in 2003 especially in San Diego, back when there was pretty much zero defaults. With conditions as they are, you don't even need fuel accellerant- just a cigarette to the side of a road and you've got a whole wildfire going.

California fires are the West Coast equivalent of Florida hurricanes...just wait, another one is bound to come along. So who's gonna get the blame when the Big One hits?


Edit add 2 hours later: Just saw an updated news report from California and truly saddened to see that amount of destruction and damage, major evacuations (apparently half of San Diego now evacuated?). Lukester, DemonD and anyone else in California who may find themselves in a fire zone; hope everything's OK with you and your families.

[olivegreen]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Alright. I realize I was being very cynical and forgetting how horrible the situation is for so many... fires AND housing crisis. Either way it amounts to alot of fellow human beings going through dark times and my thoughts are with them all. I apologize for my cynicism... It seems too easy these days to go down that path. I wonder why.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Alright. I realize I was being very cynical and forgetting how horrible the situation is for so many... fires AND housing crisis. Either way it amounts to alot of fellow human beings going through dark times and my thoughts are with them all. I apologize for my cynicism... It seems too easy these days to go down that path. I wonder why.

Hey, olivegreen, watch it! Cynicism is good.

[Tet]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Alright. I realize I was being very cynical and forgetting how horrible the situation is for so many... fires AND housing crisis. Either way it amounts to alot of fellow human beings going through dark times and my thoughts are with them all. I apologize for my cynicism... It seems too easy these days to go down that path. I wonder why.

I believe we can all thank God that these poor insurance companies will be able to settle these multi billion d0llar claims by selling their stocks at profitable higher prices. Thankfully the refinance companies are going to respectfully wait until tomorrow evening before they start calling me to see if I want to refinance my home now that it's going to be worth a lot more in another month. These construction companies that were going out of business only yesterday now have two years worth of backlog and the fire isn't even out yet. Yes cynicism is a slippery slope and when you start to realize how easy it is to correct any of these October market crashes with a good ole fashioned Southern California multi-billion d0llar fire you can see how tempting it becomes. I used to think these things started when some asshole threw his cigarette out the car window, now I'm older and understand that's not how it's done.

[DemonD]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Olive: I live in Hollywood, right now it's dry as hell over here but wildfires don't affect the urban areas, we don't have any brush to burn. There have been some fires in the Hollywood Hills but they never turn into bazillion acres. Griffith Park has the highest concentration of foliage and it burned about 600 acres or so earlier this year, that's about the closest we get to it.

I believe we can all thank God that these poor insurance companies will be able to settle these multi billion d0llar claims by selling their stocks at profitable higher prices. Thankfully the refinance companies are going to respectfully wait until tomorrow evening before they start calling me to see if I want to refinance my home now that it's going to be worth a lot more in another month. These construction companies that were going out of business only yesterday now have two years worth of backlog and the fire isn't even out yet. Yes cynicism is a slippery slope and when you start to realize how easy it is to correct any of these October market crashes with a good ole fashioned Southern California multi-billion d0llar fire you can see how tempting it becomes. I used to think these things started when some asshole threw his cigarette out the car window, now I'm older and understand that's not how it's done.

Tet, I'm going to say that I'm sure there was some arson going on. But every fire? Including in 2003? I was IN San Diego in 2003 the weekend it was raining ash. I saw the freeway closures and evacuations then, I saw the smoke all the way up through Los Angeles - back then. In 2003. When no one was in foreclosure. And everyone was making bazillions on RE. IIRC the fires were almost the same - had em in SD, IE, Santa Clarita. Big difference now is that a lot more in malibu, not so much in Simi Valley which is where they hit hard in 2003.

Your point about insurance companies are well taken though, screwing the homeowners into the ground.

[Tet]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Olive: I live in Hollywood, right now it's dry as hell over here but wildfires don't affect the urban areas, we don't have any brush to burn. There have been some fires in the Hollywood Hills but they never turn into bazillion acres. Griffith Park has the highest concentration of foliage and it burned about 600 acres or so earlier this year, that's about the closest we get to it.



Tet, I'm going to say that I'm sure there was some arson going on. But every fire? Including in 2003? I was IN San Diego in 2003 the weekend it was raining ash. I saw the freeway closures and evacuations then, I saw the smoke all the way up through Los Angeles - back then. In 2003. When no one was in foreclosure. And everyone was making bazillions on RE. IIRC the fires were almost the same - had em in SD, IE, Santa Clarita. Big difference now is that a lot more in malibu, not so much in Simi Valley which is where they hit hard in 2003.

Your point about insurance companies are well taken though, screwing the homeowners into the ground.

They claim the Cedar fire of 2003 was started by an illegal alien campfire. That is the claim anyway, the chances of the illegal alien campfire catching the entire county on fire is less than zero, but that's the story and they're sticking to it no matter how silly it sounds. Market in October of 2003 goes for about a 200 point tear to close out the year, that's what happens once the insurance boyz start selling, they get out at higher prices as did Jesse Livermore.

[DemonD]

Re: Central California Housing Crash

Well they KNOW that an illegal campfire started the blaze that affected Tahoe this year... or maybe I just forgot to put on my tinfoil hat when the backpackers admitted to it.

Look, I'm not saying arson wasn't involved this time around. I am saying that california wildfires happen all the time and to ascribe personal gain for every single fire is overly conspiratorial. Besides, I'm guessing most arson fires are done by plain pyromaniac idiots, or people doing DUMB things... like that woman park ranger that started the arizona wildfires a couple of years ago. I think you give too much credit to people having that kind of forethought, and not enough to the power of nature and the idiocy of humans.