The Future of Transportation

[shiny!]

A 15-minute talk by Mark Frohnmayer, developer of Arcimoto's electric car, on how he sees the transportation system changing in the relatively near future. In the last few minutes he discusses Google's self-driving car technology, which is going to radically revolutionize how we get around.

I've never posted a video before... let's see if this works:

For electric cars to really take off, they'll need a better battery.

[lektrode]

Re: The Future of Transportation

I've never posted a video before... let's see if this works:

For electric cars to really take off, they'll need a better battery.

success!
and yep - along with a better source of juice to fill em.
the grid is groaning already, imagine what any more than a few % of 'lektric cars on the roads will do...

[shiny!]

Re: The Future of Transportation

success!
and yep - along with a better source of juice to fill em.
the grid is groaning already, imagine what any more than a few % of 'lektric cars on the roads will do...

Agreed. But isn't that google car amazing? I'm a little afraid of google taking over our lives, but a technology that eliminates distracted and drunk driving and allows people to get around independently when they're too old or young to drive on their own... that's pretty cool.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The Future of Transportation

We'll have these sorts of things eventually.

My favorite example is video phones.
Since I was a child in the 1960's futurists predicted the wonderful amazing video phone, right around the corner.
We sure wanted those amazing advanced devices, but they were always out of reach.
Today we have skype and facetime and it was all no big deal.
Little incremental steps, no grand unveiling, no one really noticed.

Which reminds me, I would like to register a complaint regarding jet packs and flying cars.
I was told there would be jet packs and flying cars...

[shiny!]

Re: The Future of Transportation

We'll have these sorts of things eventually.

My favorite example is video phones.
Since I was a child in the 1960's futurists predicted the wonderful amazing video phone, right around the corner.
We sure wanted those amazing advanced devices, but they were always out of reach.
Today we have skype and facetime and it was all no big deal.
Little incremental steps, no grand unveiling, no one really noticed.

Which reminds me, I would like to register a complaint regarding jet packs and flying cars.
I was told there would be jet packs and flying cars...

I think we should file a class-action suit about this failure to deliver.

[lektrode]

Re: The Future of Transportation

yes it is - another thing that caught my eye was this: http://www.getaround.com/
my goal is the NO CAR (req'd) Lifestyle
20+ years of driving in HNL (on an island) has convinced me of the sheer madness of it all.
methinks The US has made same big mistakes in the transportation dept

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The Future of Transportation

Thanks for sharing Shiny!

And I'd like to join the class action lawsuit on jetpacks.

The jetpack and the flying car are the two things that have remained in the popular lexicon that haven't eventuated and probably never will.

Although in having said that, the closest thing to a commercial jetpack today is this:

http://martinjetpack.com/video-gallery.aspx

Some good people working hard on this, right down the road from me, and we've helped promote them at an annual event we run and I wish them the best, but the genuine utility/safety of it for high volume use I seriously question.

[shiny!]

Re: The Future of Transportation

Thanks for sharing Shiny!

And I'd like to join the class action lawsuit on jetpacks.

The jetpack and the flying car are the two things that have remained in the popular lexicon that haven't eventuated and probably never will.

Although in having said that, the closest thing to a commercial jetpack today is this:

http://martinjetpack.com/video-gallery.aspx

Some good people working hard on this, right down the road from me, and we've helped promote them at an annual event we run and I wish them the best, but the genuine utility/safety of it for high volume use I seriously question.

Wow, an actual working jetpack! The technology's obviously in its infancy, but I'm sure they'll become more efficient and come down in price. Reading the FAQ page, it says:

Fuel Capacity	5 US gallons (as required by FAA Part 103,Ultralight Regulations)
Fuel burn	10.0 gph

Does that mean 10 gallons per hour?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: The Future of Transportation

Wow, an actual working jetpack! The technology's obviously in its infancy, but I'm sure they'll become more efficient and come down in price. Reading the FAQ page, it says:

Fuel Capacity	5 US gallons (as required by FAA Part 103,Ultralight Regulations)
Fuel burn	10.0 gph

Does that mean 10 gallons per hour?

Yup!

Hopefully it turns into a decent high end recreational vehicle.

I seriously wonder if it can provide a replacement for or supplement to rotary wing search and rescue.

My guess is UAVs, as they become more ubiquitous for legitimate domestic functions...they might negate the use of this jetpack outside of recreational purposes.

I did see another "jetpack" that's kind of neat!

Although strictly high end recreational by the look of things.

http://www.jetlev-flyer.com/

[shiny!]

Re: The Future of Transportation

Yup!

Hopefully it turns into a decent high end recreational vehicle.

I seriously wonder if it can provide a replacement for or supplement to rotary wing search and rescue.

My guess is UAVs, as they become more ubiquitous for legitimate domestic functions...they might negate the use of this jetpack outside of recreational purposes.

I did see another "jetpack" that's kind of neat!

Although strictly high end recreational by the look of things.

http://www.jetlev-flyer.com/

I don't see it being very useful for search and rescue unless it can stay in the air longer than 30 minutes before needing refueling. Still, it's a good start.

I have a suggestion for their promo video- maybe you can pass it along to them.... When their pilot takes off his helmet at the end, he should be grinning from ear to ear! I sure would, and most everybody else would, too, if they were lucky enough to fly a jetpack. I know they're trying to show it's a "serious" product with serious applications, but purchases are made by people (even in the military) and emotions play a big role in purchasing decisions.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: The Future of Transportation

The jetpack and the flying car are the two things that have remained in the popular lexicon that haven't eventuated and probably never will.

Kind of like the 4-day work week and the paperless office.

As somebody who's been in the tech sector a long time ... I've learned that technology adoption usually takes much longer than most people think. Our minds are far more creative and faster than our product development processes.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: The Future of Transportation

I see the self driving car usurping fantasies of high speed rail.

As we know, the problem with rail is that it doesn't take you exactly where you want to go which means connections which lengthens overall travel times. Then there is the crushing cost of laying tracks which can run into the tens/hundreds of billions. Autonomous cars will take you exactly where you want to go at a decent enough speed for a tiny fraction of the cost of rail. I didn't see the video so I'm not sure where he went with the video but autonomous taxis & jitneys could also be used in downtown areas in lieu of regular cabs and light commuter rail.

Autonomous cars will cover all our transportation needs up to around 600 miles. Beyond that, the speed of airline travel wins out.

Going further out as to how this will impact society. What happens to driver liability when you own an autonomous car but override it to enjoy the driving experience but then get in an accident that the AI would have avoided? After a few high profile lawsuits, will liability concerns prevent self driving from being an option and force everyone to have the car drive itself?

Next: What happens to brands like Porsche or BMW "The Ultimate Driving Machine?" If you are no longer "driving", to enjoy the visceral thrill of driving how does one market a BMW? Or any car, for that matter?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The Future of Transportation

I see the self driving car usurping fantasies of high speed rail.

As we know, the problem with rail is that it doesn't take you exactly where you want to go which means connections which lengthens overall travel times. Then there is the crushing cost of laying tracks which can run into the tens/hundreds of billions. Autonomous cars will take you exactly where you want to go at a decent enough speed for a tiny fraction of the cost of rail. I didn't see the video so I'm not sure where he went with the video but autonomous taxis & jitneys could also be used in downtown areas in lieu of regular cabs and light commuter rail.

Autonomous cars will cover all our transportation needs up to around 600 miles. Beyond that, the speed of airline travel wins out.

Going further out as to how this will impact society. What happens to driver liability when you own an autonomous car but override it to enjoy the driving experience but then get in an accident that the AI would have avoided?

Next: What happens to brands like Porsche or BMW "The Ultimate Driving Machine?" If you are no longer "driving", to enjoy the visceral thrill of driving how does one market a BMW? Or any car, for that matter?

My old research group worked on Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems (IVHS) as it was known back then.
The end goal was automatic self-driving cars.

If we make the system work, it could really increase the capacity of highways.
Imagine a group of a couple dozen private automatic cars syncing up in tight formation, driving bumper-to-bumper and side-by-side at 90 MPH, cooperatively sharing sensor data and computing power real-time.

One interesting problem is the irresponsible idiot who tries to use his broken down junk car in this system. It fails and wipes out 3 lanes of innocent bystanders before he can get his hands off the beer bottle and back onto the steering wheel.
.
.
P.S. that might be the niche for BMW et al. They'll likely be the first companies to make expensive automatic cars, full of luxury and safety. Us commoners will watch pods of automatic luxury cars racing down the highway at their exclusive high speed limit, with wealthy occupants laughing and playing bridge...

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: The Future of Transportation

Thanks for sharing Shiny!

And I'd like to join the class action lawsuit on jetpacks.

The jetpack and the flying car are the two things that have remained in the popular lexicon that haven't eventuated and probably never will.

Although in having said that, the closest thing to a commercial jetpack today is this:

http://martinjetpack.com/video-gallery.aspx

Some good people working hard on this, right down the road from me, and we've helped promote them at an annual event we run and I wish them the best, but the genuine utility/safety of it for high volume use I seriously question.

I saw this several years back. it is still under development. the Moller skycar was an effort to build a functional flying car, but I think it could better be described as a transparent scam to fleece investors. Moller has been in the sucker fleecing business since the 1960's. He is very good at it. I hope the martin jetpack guy is more on the up-and-up.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: The Future of Transportation

I see the self driving car usurping fantasies of high speed rail.

As we know, the problem with rail is that it doesn't take you exactly where you want to go which means connections which lengthens overall travel times. Then there is the crushing cost of laying tracks which can run into the tens/hundreds of billions. Autonomous cars will take you exactly where you want to go at a decent enough speed for a tiny fraction of the cost of rail. I didn't see the video so I'm not sure where he went with the video but autonomous taxis & jitneys could also be used in downtown areas in lieu of regular cabs and light commuter rail.

Autonomous cars will cover all our transportation needs up to around 600 miles. Beyond that, the speed of airline travel wins out.

Going further out as to how this will impact society. What happens to driver liability when you own an autonomous car but override it to enjoy the driving experience but then get in an accident that the AI would have avoided? After a few high profile lawsuits, will liability concerns prevent self driving from being an option and force everyone to have the car drive itself?

Next: What happens to brands like Porsche or BMW "The Ultimate Driving Machine?" If you are no longer "driving", to enjoy the visceral thrill of driving how does one market a BMW? Or any car, for that matter?

You know, I have been thinking about this. The idea of a self driving car is a fantasy of social control propagated by dictators and want-to-be dictators. It would not be tolerated by my parents generation that equated driving with freedom. Nowadays I'm not sure how people would react. When you think about it, the idea of a self-driving car very old. What is a train if not a "car" on a "road" that effectively drives itself. There is an engineer, but all he can do is use the brake ( not much use in an emergency ) and the "gas". The route is set by switches controlled by computer, and the engineer can literally sleep in a caboose. John Tayler-Gatto thinks that modern schools systems where designed to make people stupid and dependent, in a word adult-children. On the whole this plan has worked. In the mid 1800's it was common place for teenagers to run farms and start families. Now, not just the under 20 age group, but pretty much every adult is considered to be unreliable and a potential hazard to themselves and everybody else. This is why the crowd in the video is cheering. They wish to relinquish control, not just of the steering wheel, but of their right to choose their work, the place they live and the people they relate to, much the way children are treated. The one area that historically has given a lie to the whole "children cannot be responsible" meme, has been the necessity of young people to drive. When I was young it was something of a rite of passage for a 16 year old to get their drivers license. Now it is rare for 16 year olds to get a license. As pointed out in the video young people just don't want to drive. With the development of the self driving car, the last loophole can be closed and the fascist state can be institutionalized. Citizens can be reduced to passive consumers and as Biscayne points out the "dangerous" practice of driving your own can can be outlawed.

-G

PS. I recently considered getting my granddaughter a car. She lives in Manhattan, and I looked up the laws for licenses there. The requirements included a driver's ed class and a something like 50 hours of time behind the wheel with an instructor. The high schools don't offer Driver's Ed any more and I or her parents would be looking at more than $2000 for driving lessons. I think it is safe to say that a driving license is out of the question for most kids in NY city.