Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

[FRED]

[WDCRob]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

FRED, can you explain how this and the other recent posts do or don't represent the follow on to the truncated article posted in October? IIRC there was to be an explanation of what the key indicators for each asset class might look like going forward, along with suggestions about how one might protect themselves based on the results of those various indicators.

Since then, seven weeks later, I've seen a few iTulip posts that rehash the past ten years of articles here - but nothing that really moved beyond the initial October article or addresses the future.

Did I miss something (very possible - though I've been watching pretty closely)? Is Part II of this video the relevant follow-up for gold -- and stocks, bonds, etc will follow?

In short, how does this fit into what was scheduled for the mega-article of October 7th?

[vinoveri]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

at 3:25 there's a stat claiming US GDP is 18% of world GDP. Seems low. Source please.

Wikipedia' got it at 23%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_GDP_(nominal)

Trend is clear and point taken (23 or 18), but 18 seems low.

[pksubs]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

Public debt to GDP for China is considered to be rather low (<30%), but recent articles and discussions in iTulip and elsewhere point to Chinese debt being larger than 30%, and closer to 100% when considering local debt - I assume incurred by provincial governments as opposed to the national or federal government. In the video, 75% is used as a point of concern for national debt getting too large. Is there a similar threshold for total debt on the books of a nation, where nation = national + local + state governments ? And why is there a focus on national/federal debt instead of total government debt. Is one more dangerous than the other, or does external debt of a nation only show up as a part of national/federal debt - and that's why agencies like IMF/WB etc care about it ?

For eg: would the US look even worse in comparison to China if we consider total govt debt ?

[FRED]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

FRED, can you explain how this and the other recent posts do or don't represent the follow on to the truncated article posted in October? IIRC there was to be an explanation of what the key indicators for each asset class might look like going forward, along with suggestions about how one might protect themselves based on the results of those various indicators.

Since then, seven weeks later, I've seen a few iTulip posts that rehash the past ten years of articles here - but nothing that really moved beyond the initial October article or addresses the future.

Did I miss something (very possible - though I've been watching pretty closely)? Is Part II of this video the relevant follow-up for gold -- and stocks, bonds, etc will follow?

In short, how does this fit into what was scheduled for the mega-article of October 7th?

The article you refer to will be published next week.

We have had to completely retool to continue to forecast the complex set of interacting processes that we are tracking. That means inventing new tools of analysis and also ways of "showing" rather than "telling" the story. You are seeing some of the results of these inventions in the gold movie.

When we publish the Euro Zone Crisis article it will include a video that shows the change vector for the two possible outcomes we foresee, large scale defaults and breakup of the euro zone or a jettisoning of the indebted nations to form a smaller but more federalized euro zone, with central tax and treasury bond issuing authorities.

Of the two outcomes we expect the latter is at this time more likely as a result of the ongoing escalation of the crisis.

Concepts videos that give new members a foundation in the ideas we have developed here and to help members remember the concepts so that we can build on them. The gold video is one of them.

We will have videos that are embedded in articles to explain complex concepts.

We also have video versions of EJ's Quick Comment.

The new site is built around a more visual approach than in the past.

[Serkan]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

Fred,

I must question the energy returned on energy invested on these videos. You have pointed out the amount of time and effort that these videos require. These video do not add anything new to the subject matter. I would rather iTulip focus it's time on the fantastic analysis and less so it's presentation.

[RebbePete]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

I would tend to agree that I'd prefer the writing over the videos. Perhaps videos in the "public" section, and more in-depth written analysis for subscirbers?

In the example embedded video on the Eurozone crisis, a single image with a pendulum in it would have served to communicate as well as the video, and would have made its point immediately.

I didn't get very much out of the gold video, but, then again, I've been a member here for several years now.

[jk]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

Fred,

I must question the energy returned on energy invested on these videos. You have pointed out the amount of time and effort that these videos require. These video do not add anything new to the subject matter. I would rather iTulip focus it's time on the fantastic analysis and less so it's presentation.

+1. this sentence

When we publish the Euro Zone Crisis article it will include a video that shows the change vector for the two possible outcomes we foresee, large scale defaults and breakup of the euro zone or a jettisoning of the indebted nations to form a smaller but more federalized euro zone, with central tax and treasury bond issuing authorities.

, quickly read, provided information much more efficiently than 1:11 of watching the red dot move back and forth.

[jiimbergin]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

I tend to agree with the above 3 posts. Videos have their purpose, but I prefer to read.

[cjppjc]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

Add me to those above. The written word is so much easier to go back over and over.

[erising]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

I agree with the cost/benefit of the video presentations. I'd rather have speedier articles than time-intensive videos any day!

[aaron]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

I would not like to watch videos over reading. However, if the videos bring in some more/new posters, that would be great!

[Raz]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

I recall reading this article about one year ago and have decided to call attention to the points it made.

The author says that the Debt/GDP ratio is not as important as the Debt/Gov't Revenue ratio.
Makes sense to me; what say you, FRED?

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/g...a-6d394f25e73a

[FRED]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

Public debt to GDP for China is considered to be rather low (<30%), but recent articles and discussions in iTulip and elsewhere point to Chinese debt being larger than 30%, and closer to 100% when considering local debt - I assume incurred by provincial governments as opposed to the national or federal government. In the video, 75% is used as a point of concern for national debt getting too large. Is there a similar threshold for total debt on the books of a nation, where nation = national + local + state governments ? And why is there a focus on national/federal debt instead of total government debt. Is one more dangerous than the other, or does external debt of a nation only show up as a part of national/federal debt - and that's why agencies like IMF/WB etc care about it ?

For eg: would the US look even worse in comparison to China if we consider total govt debt ?

Northern Trust did a great piece on this topic in December 2010. Rather than reinvent the wheel, here's a link to the article Deciphering Debt.

[WDCRob]

Re: Global Monetary Breakdown: Part I

Thanks for the quick reply Fred. Looking forward to the rest of it.