The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

[raja]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

[LEFT]Update, as promised.

I'd rather have a non-animated flow chart. Why?

Some of the concepts require more time to think about than others. With the relentless cycling at a fixed speed, I feel rushed. I need to absorb the information at my own speed, which will probably be a different speed for each individual watching the video.

Sorry, but I think it's a bad idea.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

[edit] Let me add this. EJ, if this *was* created by you, might I strongly suggest that you grab some help from the membership by describing what you want and have us help out. Many of us have an IT background and could whip something up quite fast (TPC could probably do it upside down).

Thanks for the nod, but this is not in my present skill set.

If I were to engage myself (quite unlikely) it would be more along the lines of Steve Keen's dynamic Mathcad models, which seem to be motivated more for the purpose of analysis than presentation.

P.S. -- However I'd prefer Sage to Mathcad. Sage is open source and Python based.

[Down Under]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

But, can't you just hit the pause button; take some time to think and then hit play again.

[Down Under]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

I respect that others opinions are different, but I'm pretty confident that overall, the iTulip community is much more interested in learning about the work EJ is doing to model these complex interactions than they are in seeing cute little revolving circles flash on the screen. I just don't buy the argument that this was an effective or efficient way to communicate the underlying information.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree...

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

Thanks for the nod, but this is not in my present skill set.

If I were to engage myself (quite unlikely) it would be more along the lines of Steve Keen's dynamic Mathcad models, which seem to be motivated more for the purpose of analysis than presentation.

P.S. -- However I'd prefer Sage to Mathcad. Sage is open source and Python based.

No problem, didn't mean to imply I was volunteering you.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

didn't mean to imply I was volunteering you.

That's fine. I did not think you were volunteering me, rather just offering a gentle and amusing aside.

I was mostly just using your remark as a springboard to comment indirectly on the sub-thread started by xPat's comments.

My comments about Mathcad and Sage models probably will lead nowhere. I posted them on the off chance that someone else had a related vision.

[xPat]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

That's fine. I did not think you were volunteering me, rather just offering a gentle and amusing aside.

I was mostly just using your remark as a springboard to comment indirectly on the sub-thread started by xPat's comments.

My comments about Mathcad and Sage models probably will lead nowhere. I posted them on the off chance that someone else had a related vision.

Ok, so apparently we're not going to see photos of TPC making video animations "upside down". But I'm sure others' interest was as piqued as my own by the thought, so how'bout photos of TPC doing Mathcad or Sage models while hanging upside down, suspended by his ankles or something?

xPat :-)

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

Ok, so apparently we're not going to see photos of TPC making video animations "upside down". But I'm sure others' interest was as piqued as my own by the thought, so how'bout photos of TPC doing Mathcad or Sage models while hanging upside down, suspended by his ankles or something?

xPat :-)

I sense an avatar change in the making..... ;-)

[xPat]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

The several pro-video comments from site members who have impressed me elsewhere caught me off guard, and made me wonder if I had missed something and not perceived the full value of the video. So I watched it two more times.

Ironically, I'm even more anti-video now than previously, but I will say that I now understand and respect the opposing viewpoint.

A message of the video that I didn't fully absorb at first is that multiple separate but inter-related cycles (PCOC, DD, etc) that are all cyclical but with different frequencies present a very complex interdependent system. I now "get it" and recognize that the point was to illustrate that when you have these independent but interdependent cycles, the analyst must not only understand the mechanism of each cycle, but must also understand that each iteration of each independent cycle will occur with different phase overlap to the other interdependent cycles.

That's absolutely fascinating, and I think extremely important for iTulipers to understand. It's not just understanding the cycle - it's understanding the cycle and recognizing how this point in this cycle relates to the point at which at least two other cycles with different durations are in their repetitive cycles. It's similar in a way to analysis of planetary angles - you need to know not only where Planet A is relative to its orbit of the sun, but also where Planet B is relative to its orbit of a different period in order to calculate azimuth and distance between planets A and B.

So now I think I get the concept. Brilliant analysis, EJ. But quite frankly, if I were to set out on a mission to try to think up the optimally worst way to communicate these concepts, this video would be it. For crying out loud, these ideas need a good solid EJ commentary, not a video game rendition that leaves one to have to connect some not-so-obvious dots in order to recognize that the point was to show overlapping interdependent cycles of differing duration.

If you must take the video approach, how'bout getting rid of the sound effects and adding a voiceover with EJ or someone narrating what you are supposed to get from the video. Something like "Notice how each cycle continues on its own, and each cycle has its own period so the overlaps of which step of the cycle overlaps with which step of another cycle is constantly evolving..."

I don't mean to sound like I'm complaining. Now that I finally see what the intended point of this was, I feel even more convinced that in its current form, it's not clearly communicating the desired message. Clearly, there are some others here who have an opposite opinion, so this is apparently a matter of taste and/or personal information processing style. But I would contend that if this video is coming off to some of us as just a silly animation and we can only intuit the interplay between overlapping cycles of differing period stuff after watching the video 3 times, that should be a clear message that the video doesn't yet communicate its message in a way that is obvious to a broad audience.

Just trying to help by sharing one man's impression of this.

xPat

[c1ue]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

I think the purpose of the video is as has been expressed by others like jk:

to expand the base of those who understand what EJ/iTulip theories.

It is more common for those who spend a significant fraction of their internet time on iTulip to understand (or feel they understand ) the concepts being expounded (and argued over).

It is far more difficult as time goes by to reach out and drag the uninitiated into the sphere many iTulipers are now in.

From my view, the videos are fine. The main missing component is the 'hook' by which a casual browser would be piqued enough to watch the video.

This is the only area where perhaps iTulip could learn from the masterful self promoters: the Schiffs, the Cramers, and what not.

[pksubs]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

I actually think there's value to a simple visual representation. Many of the theories at itulip need work to appreciate, but until recently it's been a simpler phenomenon to understand - as someone said very pithily above, up and down is easier than round and round. When theories get complex, and depend upon interactions of different phenomena with their own characteristics, people tend to develop local understanding of one 'favourite' piece while remaining unclear about the global picture. This can lead to wrong decision making. I think it is precisely this problem which EJ is trying to solve - how do you give people an intuitive understanding of the system, and once this understanding is developed, enable them to dig in to each piece while keeping the global perspective. If so, I applaud the effort, I think it has legs.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

I actually think there's value to a simple visual representation. Many of the theories at itulip need work to appreciate, but until recently it's been a simpler phenomenon to understand - as someone said very pithily above, up and down is easier than round and round. When theories get complex, and depend upon interactions of different phenomena with their own characteristics, people tend to develop local understanding of one 'favourite' piece while remaining unclear about the global picture. This can lead to wrong decision making. I think it is precisely this problem which EJ is trying to solve - how do you give people an intuitive understanding of the system, and once this understanding is developed, enable them to dig in to each piece while keeping the global perspective. If so, I applaud the effort, I think it has legs.

My reaction is; movie producers and directors do not show their daily "rushes" in the theatre, they do so behind closed doors and only show the much edited final cut to their targeted audience. Perhaps it would be better to create a new thread called "Rushes"??

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

the video doesn't yet communicate its message

I too had to watch the video multiple times before I realized that it was describing interacting cycles of varying duration.

This has a feel to me of some developments in which I was heavily involved, regarding revision control software. I struggled for years with the subject, having considerable interest in it, and delivering major, successful, internal products. But I eventually abandoned the subject with a feeling of defeat, except for a couple of idiosyncratic tools of my own creation that no one else uses. There was always some essential element that escaped me. One cannot present clearly that which is not essentially clear, correct and elegant.

I never did find a clear way to present the revision control software understanding I sought, even though I was lead architect and developer for multiple such systems, over several years (in-house systems, not listed at the above link, but closely associated with some of them.) The desired clarity eventually came from others, after a major and sometimes tumultuous shift in the way in which such systems were developed, supported and managed, from proprietary (centrally controlled) to open source (community discussed and shared, from the very design roots on up.)

I suspect that the present difficulty in finding a clear way to communicate EJ's message that is obvious to a broad audience is but a symptom of an underlying problem, that will not be easy to address in the present moment.

When an idea is difficult to present, it might be because the idea is inherently difficult (quantum mechanics comes to mind) or it might be because the idea is encumbered by some inessential complexity (Ptolemy's epicycles comes to mind)

But in either case, the way forth sometimes comes not from focusing on the style of presentation, nor even from the more diligent labors of those who already have a substantial reputation in the subject. Rather the way forth sometimes awaits the insights of a relative new comer of suitable genius, when the arena of discussion is sufficiently open to such participation. This to me is the real value of iTulip, as possibly such an arena.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

My reaction is; movie producers and directors do not show their daily "rushes" in the theatre, they do so behind closed doors and only show the much edited final cut to their targeted audience. Perhaps it would be better to create a new thread called "Rushes"??

This is the path to a more polished presentation of the known, not to a discovery of the unknown.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

This is the path to a more polished presentation of the known, not to a discovery of the unknown.

Wriggly, I have to profoundly disagree. My take on this is that EJ has been on a very long journey since before he set up iTulip. He started out as a conventional VC financed individual and ever since, he has sought the answers to the always unknowable questions that drive ones inner sense to change direction ...... regardless of the consequences. Only to start to get a slim grip on why, some years later. I see this as an excellent example of his fighting the inner balance between where he came from, conventional FIRE based economy; and where he knows, in his heart, he must be soon .... but exactly where eludes him, as indeed, so it does all of us.

There is never any certainty of the result of a decision; that is the unknown paradox he is fighting within himself. He has set himself the challenge to draw up a route map for the rest of us; without any certainty he will pick the right one. I greatly admire him for trying to achieve the near impossible.