The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

[c1ue]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

I can think of one way to make the video interesting for the younger generation:

Convert each cycle into the cylinder of a gun.

Have various monsters run at the viewer, titled: $12 gasoline, 10% unemployment, sovereign debt default, and what not.

Expend the shots in each cylinder appropriate to said critters.

At some point you run out of bullets in all 3...

[FRED]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

Thanks for this.
Can you explain how the MR piece has a 2-3 yr duration wheras the DD has a 10-20 yr duration; is time=zero the same for both or if not, when do they overlap? Does not the return to a "gold standard" follow the currency and bond crisis?
When is time zero?

We made several errors in beta 1. That was one of them. There are errors in beta 2. By Version 1.0, all of the errors will be ironed out. Maybe by version 5.0 we'll have the order and duration of events well enough refined to begin to translate these into specific trades. You can think of this video as Ka-Poom Theory version 10.0.

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

Thanks for this.
Can you explain how the MR piece has a 2-3 yr duration wheras the DD has a 10-20 yr duration; is time=zero the same for both or if not, when do they overlap? Does not the return to a "gold standard" follow the currency and bond crisis?
When is time zero?

Along the same lines, I'd be curious to know where in each cycle iTulip thinks we are. I have my own opinion of course, but it's usually wrong... ;-)

[FRED]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

I can think of one way to make the video interesting for the younger generation:

Convert each cycle into the cylinder of a gun.

Have various monsters run at the viewer, titled: $12 gasoline, 10% unemployment, sovereign debt default, and what not.

Expend the shots in each cylinder appropriate to said critters.

At some point you run out of bullets in all 3...

That's a great idea for a different video. The wheels represent processes, however. The six shooter idea is great for depicting a finite series of measures that can be taken to deal with a problem. How about an attacking inflation monster? Only one bullet in the chamber: a rate hike. The Fed fires and monster falls on top of the Fed. ;-)

We have many ideas and limited resources. Here are a few on the docket:

1. What is iTulip.com?

Abstract: iTulip.com is the web site of iTulip, Inc., a finance and economics analysis and forecasting firm based outside Boston, Massachusetts. iTulip.com was created by Eric Janszen in 1998 to warn business media consumers to not listen to New Economy propaganda that was justifying a rising stock market bubble. As a former CEO of venture capital backed companies, Eric Janszen employs his background in business economics, finance, and industry experience product management, to develop complex models to forecast changes in the political economy. His track record includes: 1) warning about the top of the stock marekt bubble in March 2000, 2) the beginning of a ten year bear market in stock starting in April 2000, 3) the bottom of the gold market in 2001, 4) the start of the housing bubble in 2002, 5) the end of the housing bubble in mid 2006, 6) the beginning of the recession in Q4 2007, 7) the beginning of a 40% decline in stocks in 2008, 8) and the start of the first bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market in April 2009. His portfolio of gold and bonds, unchanged since 2001, has outperformed a standard portfolio of stocks and bonds by a wide margin, with far less volatility and lower drawdowns. Mr. Janszen continues to build on his forecasting successes over the past 12 years to model developments in the political economy over the coming ten years.

2. How is iTulip.com different from all other finance and economics sites?

Abstract: When iTulip.com started in 1998, only a handful of web sites existed as an alternative to the mainstream business media. iTulip's Quick Comment page has been called "the original blog" and Janszen "one of the first bloggers." But iTulip is not a blog. The site operates on a completely different principle. Blogs are like classrooms, with a lecturer "guru" writing about the latest economics events and the audience commenting on the guru's writing. To understand iTulip.com we have to stop thinking they way we have been trained to think by watching the business media, in terms of economics news events, and to think instead in terms of processes that create change. Mr. Janszen's role is to provide leadership, to develop original insights into the operation of the economy and markets, to identify critical processes that are producing fundamental change. The role of the iTulip members is to bring in outside expertise and criticism to help mold and refine ideas.

• Started 1998: Refinement comes with experience
• Accurate forecasts: Track record validates methods
• Process-based analysis: You can't get the right answers if you are asking the wrong questions

3. How to be a good business media consumer

Abstract: Consumers of business media want to see issues, such as the future of inflation in the economy, debated to a conclusion. They need to see resolution of important question. But the business media does not operate like a debate club where the best argument wins, and fact confirm or negate theory. Media outlets, even alternative Internet media sites, need to attract viewers in order to interest advertisers. Resolution of issues means the end of debate, and that means fewer viewers. Either a new "hot issue" has to arrive or the media has to invent one. Thus the business media consists of a continuous flow of disconnected events. The future is debated in endless circles without resolution. The most popular sites are those that dramatize events, not those that settle issues. The subscription-based media model is the only one that can deliver independent analysis that seeks to resolve questions rather than chase them endlessly in a race to attract eyeballs for ad revenue.

4. The inflation game: Why hyperinflation in the US is highly unlikely, but high inflation is not

Abstract: Hyperinflation happens when a government gets on the wrong side of the seigniorage revenue Laffer curve. Okay, but what's seigniorage? What's seigniorage revenue? What's the seigniorage revenue Laffer curve? What does it have to do with hyperinflation? Why does an analysis of the US monetary system in the context of the seigniorage revenue Laffer curve lead to the conclusion that hyperinfaltion in the US is nearly impossible?

[zmas28]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

I actually that the format was great! The cycles represent umm cycles, of different duration and speed.
The one really important addition I would make is a pointer to where we are within each cycle, at this point in time. Tie it to reality.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

It is a nice format, highly effective.

Some of the bullet points are themselves pretty complex ideas, not obvious to the uninitiated -"balance sheet recession", "output gap"; "credit bubble collapse"
Likely unavoidable for a complex situation.

The presentation is still a little lacking at showing the dynamic interaction, like complex wave forms canceling and reinforcing each other in positive and negative directions.
A clever inspiration or two can cure that. Perhaps a different presentation altogether that focuses on that dynamic interaction.

Thanks for taking on this daunting challenge.

[doom&gloom]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta1

We made several errors in beta 1. That was one of them. There are errors in beta 2. By Version 1.0, all of the errors will be ironed out. Maybe by version 5.0 we'll have the order and duration of events well enough refined to begin to translate these into specific trades. You can think of this video as Ka-Poom Theory version 10.0.

You need a "start date" per se... some of these things have happened, some have not all are overlapping, but it is hard to quantify what/when the timeframes begin...

[xPat]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

I'd like to respectfully express an opposing viewpoint.

I was outright insulted when I saw this video show up on the homepage. It appears to me to be a categorical waste of time.

Look, I've tried to go out of my way when I see others on iTulip bitch about the lack of frequent content, by asking them to be patient and understand that we can't expect EJ to be writing every single day for what we pay for this. I understand and respect that EJ has irons in many fires, and that he only writes on iTulip when he has something to say. I accept that this makes the content here sporadic, and I've tried to help out by encouraging other premium subscribers to chill out when they start to get riled up.

But while I can understand and accept that time is limited, I have a much harder time understanding why precious little of EJ's time that is available for iTulip content creation is wasted on pointless bullshit like this stupid, useless video.

Thought-provoking prose punctuated with plenty of graphs and charts is where the value lies here. Ok, I understand you've had issues with people stealing your charts and that you want to look to other formats to avoid having competitors steal your best work. Fine. Embed watermarks or something. But videos like this are a pure unadulterated waste of everyone's time. Please redirect your energy to something useful, and stop wasting it on cutesy videos that say next to nothing and have far less value to subscribers than a written piece that would take half as long to write.

Thanks for considering my viewpoint. At the end of the day I quite enjoy having the opportunity to benefit from EJ's insights in any form you're willing to deliver, so I'll take what I can get. But honestly I think you're barking up the wrong tree with these format experiments that take lots of time to produce and deliver zero value added above and beyond good old fashioned English language commentary with graphs and charts between the words.

All the best,
xPat

[aaron]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

Yes, but how do you really feel?

I agree with your sentiments.

[jiimbergin]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

Yes, but how do you really feel?

I agree with your sentiments.

I also agree. The video is interesting in showing that things are getting even more complex, but posts with graphs and words in between is, IMHO, better.

[xPat]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

Yes, but how do you really feel?

For the record, how I really feel is what I said - that I quite appreciate getting EJ's insights in whatever way I can, and I really am "willing to take what I can get".

My goal was to be as bold as possible in expressing my opinion (which I'm sure quite a few others share) that these fancy-pants presentation formats are a waste of time, but while at the same time being respectful of the establishment and acknowledging that I think iTulip is a great value, even when they waste their time on projects like this one.

I hope I did an adequate job of balancing my critical viewpoint with an adequate dose of (entirely sincere) appreciation for the fantastic value I derive from this wonderful site.

xPat

[jk]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

i am reserving judgement on the value of the video. as far as it goes, it just restates things that have been discussed before. but i see this kind of representation as POTENTIALLY a useful tool. like all models, it is wrong and oversimplified. it remains to be seen whether it can be useful in helping to clarify how complex processes might interact going forward. it might not even be predictive in a deterministic sense, but still be useful in generating scenarios [suppose process 1 hits stage D before/after process 2 hits its stage q, etc]

[Down Under]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

I'd like to respectfully express an opposing viewpoint.

I was outright insulted when I saw this video show up on the homepage. It appears to me to be a categorical waste of time.

xPat,

I'm afraid I totally disagree with your viewpoint; I believe behind the scenes EJ & co are doing a lot of heavy lifting and that eventually this work will bear fruit. My background for 20 odd years was working on real-time, complex computer systems. The worlds financial system is an extremely complex system; too complex for me to be able to work it out on my own. And, at times, I think it's too complex for me to understand even with the likes of EJ et al explaining it.

This work that EJ etc are doing is an attempt to model the underlying processes and how they interact with each other; eventually, they hope that this will translate into specific trade recommendations, as per FRED's post. But, it must be remembered that it's a work in progress, hence the beta tag.

And, my expectation is that these videos won't replace text+charts but will be an extremely valuable tool to aid in better understanding the underlying processes. The order of complexity involved is immense; it will take time, much longer than any of us, myself included, will like.

So, to sum up, I fully endorse the direction EJ is taking here; will it bear fruit? I believe so but only time will tell.

Regards,
Down Under

[jpatter666]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

xPat,

I'm afraid I totally disagree with your viewpoint; I believe behind the scenes EJ & co are doing a lot of heavy lifting and that eventually this work will bear fruit. My background for 20 odd years was working on real-time, complex computer systems. The worlds financial system is an extremely complex system; too complex for me to be able to work it out on my own. And, at times, I think it's too complex for me to understand even with the likes of EJ et al explaining it.

This work that EJ etc are doing is an attempt to model the underlying processes and how they interact with each other; eventually, they hope that this will translate into specific trade recommendations, as per FRED's post. But, it must be remembered that it's a work in progress, hence the beta tag.

And, my expectation is that these videos won't replace text+charts but will be an extremely valuable tool to aid in better understanding the underlying processes. The order of complexity involved is immense; it will take time, much longer than any of us, myself included, will like.

So, to sum up, I fully endorse the direction EJ is taking here; will it bear fruit? I believe so but only time will tell.

Regards,
Down Under

We're kind of in between. I suppose it depends on the following questions:

1 ) Did EJ create this video himself or was it delegated to one of the Army of FRED?
2 ) This isn't really supposed to replace valuable EJ textual insight is it? (if so, count me firmly on the xPat side)

My wife (who isn't the iTulip fanatic I am) found the video quite informative and useful. So I consider that while these might not be nearly so valuable to the iTulip core membership, it does have value to perhaps more viewers than we think.....

[edit] Let me add this. EJ, if this *was* created by you, might I strongly suggest that you grab some help from the membership by describing what you want and have us help out. Many of us have an IT background and could whip something up quite fast (TPC could probably do it upside down).

[xPat]

Re: The Next 10 Years: Three Drivers of Economic Change beta 2

xPat,

I'm afraid I totally disagree with your viewpoint; I believe behind the scenes EJ & co are doing a lot of heavy lifting and that eventually this work will bear fruit. ...

This work that EJ etc are doing is an attempt to model the underlying processes and how they interact with each other; eventually, they hope that this will translate into specific trade recommendations, as per FRED's post. But, it must be remembered that it's a work in progress, hence the beta tag.

DnUnder,

I think you misunderstand my objection. I agree that the "heavy lifting" EJ and co. are doing behind the scenes to model complex interactions is very valuable, and very important. As I tried to allude in my post, I think that some people on this site have been a bit intolerant when there is no consistent flow of articles, and I think that it's important for all of us to respect that good, important research is going on behind the scenes. So I think we're in violent agreement on that.

My point was simply that I think that if you're going to model complex interactions, I'm all for it. But the VIDEO is still a complete waste of time and energy in my opinion. It's not a particularly effective way to communicate this information, and however much time it took to put it together was wasted time in my opinion.

I respect that others opinions are different, but I'm pretty confident that overall, the iTulip community is much more interested in learning about the work EJ is doing to model these complex interactions than they are in seeing cute little revolving circles flash on the screen. I just don't buy the argument that this was an effective or efficient way to communicate the underlying information.

xPat