Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

[LargoWinch]

"I would be interested in the S&P at around 900 - 925" - Rosenberg

"I actually believe that it is a conservative forecast [Gold @ $3,000]" - Rosenberg



Runtime: 5min. 32 sec.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

Good interview.

Here is a link to an interview with Felix Zulauf

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...ix_Zulauf.html

It lasts about 19 minutes, and I picked up the link from Jesse's cafe. The interview is dated 5/28 and is mostly Zulauf talking, and not a lot of dumb interviewer questioning.

This is worth listening to because it explains one presumably smart guy's perception of how this deflationary situation in which we are may play out. Zulauf thinks it could culminate with a fiat currency collapse that is mostly world wide and takes place over a period of weeks.

Zulauf is pro-gold, and also thinks a cyclical recession in China over the next 12-18 months will cut commodity price into half from where they are today--that would be oil at $37/bbl.

To me Zulau's matter of fact assessment of the next 2-7 or so years is scary and I don't get the impression he is trying to just scare listeners. I sort of envy Raja who lives somewhere on a farm in the southeastern US and is one person who might be prepared to survive a scenario as Zulauf talks about.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

Good interview.

Here is a link to an interview with Felix Zulauf

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...ix_Zulauf.html

It lasts about 19 minutes, and I picked up the link from Jesse's cafe. The interview is dated 5/28 and is mostly Zulauf talking, and not a lot of dumb interviewer questioning.

This is worth listening to because it explains one presumably smart guy's perception of how this deflationary situation in which we are may play out. Zulauf thinks it could culminate with a fiat currency collapse that is mostly world wide and takes place over a period of weeks.

Zulauf is pro-gold, and also thinks a cyclical recession in China over the next 12-18 months will cut commodity price into half from where they are today--that would be oil at $37/bbl.

To me Zulau's matter of fact assessment of the next 2-7 or so years is scary and I don't get the impression he is trying to just scare listeners. I sort of envy Raja who lives somewhere on a farm in the southeastern US and is one person who might be prepared to survive a scenario as Zulauf talks about.

Great interview indeed.

It appears that Zulauf is predicting a sort of Ka-POOM, but unlike iTulip, an hyperinflation POOM. His time frame for Ka is even more shocking: 12-18 months!

Thanks for sharing Jim.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

I didn't get the impression that Zulauf thinks the fiat currency collapse will occur in 12-18 months, but rather some 4-5 years or so, but then I believe he said as soon as two years. Fact is, no one knows WTF will happen exactly, much less exactly when something might happen. I do think the 12-18 month reference was to the commodity prices correction, but I may be wrong.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

I didn't get the impression that Zulauf thinks the fiat currency collapse will occur in 12-18 months, but rather some 4-5 years or so, but then I believe he said as soon as two years. Fact is, no one knows WTF will happen exactly, much less exactly when something might happen. I do think the 12-18 month reference was to the commodity prices correction, but I may be wrong.

That is correct Jim and that is what I meant as well when I said "his time frame for "Ka" [as opposed to POOM] within 12/18 Mo".

We can add one more short-term ultra bear on the list!

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

Zulauf says "cyclical recession in China in the next 12 to 18 months", at about 17:10 in the interview. Later at 18:30 he says this chinese recession is quite bearish for commodity prices, cutting "copper, oil and those items" in perhaps half within the next 12 to 18 months.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

Good interview.

Here is a link to an interview with Felix Zulauf

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwor...ix_Zulauf.html

In a way (compared to the Gloomy Doom I anticipate) Zulauf is more optimistic.

We're both seeing a major reset of the world's monetary system, wiping out massive debt (and the corresponding credit on someone else's balance sheet). I didn't notice Zulauf comment on what happens after that reset, but I'm expecting a new world reserve currency, controlled by BIS/IMF/G20/..., based in some (rather obscure) way on a basket of national (or regional) currencies and likely some gold and oil. With that I'm expecting stronger regulatory control over the Wall Street wildcatters and dark pools of hedge fund money that funded this current explosion in derivatives.

But ... the question that Zulauf commented on that I find interesting here is just how we get to the point of hitting that Big Red Reset Button.

Being gloomy and unimaginative, I figure it will take serious war.

Zulauf figures in this interview that some round of major bank and national treasury collapse would spiral out of control, ballooning the central bank balances by a factor of 50 or 100 in a few weeks time, leading to the Reset.

In any case, we cannot easily move politically to this monetary Reset, so first we have to cram all our balance sheet woes onto the balance sheets of a few central banks, where the difficult decisions can be made by a few powerful people, behind closed doors. Both sides of the central bank balance sheets will take an enormous hit in that big Reset.

For us more ordinary people, the winning and losing will come in the interim, as we jockey for position in a collapsing debt-and-derivative-based monetary system. Debtors will seek not to lose the property they offered as collateral, while lenders (and investors) will seek not to lose the value of their wealth. Corporations will seek not to enter Chapter 7 bankruptcy, and national governments will seek to avoid revolutionary overthrow.

Those people

• who are in good health,
• who have the basic tools of life (food, clothing, shelter and tools), and
• who have physical wealth (farmland, mines, working factories, shipping, perhaps gold)

will be well positioned after the big Reset.

At least Zulauf's scenario does not require destroying the lives and bodies of millions of humans and other living creatures. That's "optimism", in my view.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Rosenberg: "S&P Overbought, Gold $3,000+" - May 28, 2010 (6min.)

In a way (compared to the Gloomy Doom I anticipate) Zulauf is more optimistic.

We're both seeing a major reset of the world's monetary system, wiping out massive debt (and the corresponding credit on someone else's balance sheet). I didn't notice Zulauf comment on what happens after that reset, but I'm expecting a new world reserve currency, controlled by BIS/IMF/G20/..., based in some (rather obscure) way on a basket of national (or regional) currencies and likely some gold and oil. With that I'm expecting stronger regulatory control over the Wall Street wildcatters and dark pools of hedge fund money that funded this current explosion in derivatives.

But ... the question that Zulauf commented on that I find interesting here is just how we get to the point of hitting that Big Red Reset Button.

Being gloomy and unimaginative, I figure it will take serious war.

Zulauf figures in this interview that some round of major bank and national treasury collapse would spiral out of control, ballooning the central bank balances by a factor of 50 or 100 in a few weeks time, leading to the Reset.

In any case, we cannot easily move politically to this monetary Reset, so first we have to cram all our balance sheet woes onto the balance sheets of a few central banks, where the difficult decisions can be made by a few powerful people, behind closed doors. Both sides of the central bank balance sheets will take an enormous hit in that big Reset.

For us more ordinary people, the winning and losing will come in the interim, as we jockey for position in a collapsing debt-and-derivative-based monetary system. Debtors will seek not to lose the property they offered as collateral, while lenders (and investors) will seek not to lose the value of their wealth. Corporations will seek not to enter Chapter 7 bankruptcy, and national governments will seek to avoid revolutionary overthrow.

Those people

• who are in good health,
• who have the basic tools of life (food, clothing, shelter and tools), and
• who have physical wealth (farmland, mines, working factories, shipping, perhaps gold)

will be well positioned after the big Reset.

At least Zulauf's scenario does not require destroying the lives and bodies of millions of humans and other living creatures. That's "optimism", in my view.

Man TPC, you are dark.

Anyway, just received Faber's June 2010 report and I quote:

In my opinion, gold isn't even in very early stages of a bubble. - Marc Faber.