China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

[LargoWinch]

"...moving away from Euros and Dollars into something more solid". You don't say; better late than never:





Runtime: 3min.



PS: I do not get the Soros "gold is the ultimate bubble" line. Wasn't that like so Jan. 2010? Oh well. (see my reply to FrankL below)

[FrankL]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

PS: I do not get the Soros "gold is the ultimate bubble" line. Wasn't that like so Dec. 2009? Oh well.

Soros Quote as found through google:
"When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."

He's not actually saying gold is in a bubble right now, is he? With precious metals being 'the last man standing' when trust in paper currencies fade, isn't he actually quite right in his assertion about gold being the ultimate bubble?

[Spartacus]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

"...moving away from Euros and Dollars into something more solid". You don't say; better late than never:


PS: I do not get the Soros "gold is the ultimate bubble" line. Wasn't that like so Dec. 2009? Oh well.

Hi Largo - hope you're well

my 2 cents: Just a note of caution, IMHO to keep the analysis accurate, we should not apply a double standard to Chinese Gold purchases and Chinese real estate speculation.

It would be good to know what the correlation or demographics is here - are the Gold buyers a separate population group or a separate class of funds from the RE speculators, or have the 2 asset classes become coupled in China - maybe coupled through credit?

one of the interviewees mentions that the Gold is being bought for different reasons than real estate, so that's one small good anecdotal data point.

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

Soros Quote as found through google:
"When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."

He's not actually saying gold is in a bubble right now, is he? With precious metals being 'the last man standing' when trust in paper currencies fade, isn't he actually quite right in his assertion about gold being the ultimate bubble?

FrankL, Soros made his "Gold is a bubble" comment around the end of Jan. 2010. (See article here)

Turned out that Soros was in fact buying gold. Clever little weasel huh? (See article here)

For Gold prospects from an unbiased source, see iTulip's "Lessons of the American Lost Decade – Part 1: The gold bugs were right" for example. [Hint: No Gold is not a bubble]

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

Hi Largo - hope you're well

I am good thanks Spartacus. I really enjoy this 30'C weather we are having!

my 2 cents: Just a note of caution, IMHO to keep the analysis accurate, we should not apply a double standard to Chinese Gold purchases and Chinese real estate speculation.

It would be good to know what the correlation or demographics is here - are the Gold buyers a separate population group or a separate class of funds from the RE speculators, or have the 2 asset classes become coupled in China - maybe coupled through credit?

That is a very good point, however I am not aware of people behind lent for a long period of time hundred of thousand of dollars to buy gold...even in China.

If that were true, I would have done so myself a while ago.

[FrankL]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

FrankL, Soros made his "Gold is a bubble" comment around the end of Jan. 2010. (See article here)

Turned out that Soros was in fact buying gold. Clever little weasel huh? (See article here)

For Gold prospects from an unbiased source, see iTulip's "Lessons of the American Lost Decade – Part 1: The gold bugs were right" for example. [Hint: No Gold is not a bubble]

Reading your reply, I'm not sure I conveyed my point as I intended. Could you please quote where Soros says that gold is currently in an asset bubble, as I can't seem to find it.

Further more, do you disagree with the notion that gold is the ultimate asset bubble?

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

Reading your reply, I'm not sure I conveyed my point as I intended. Could you please quote where Soros says that gold is currently in an asset bubble, as I can't seem to find it.

Further more, do you disagree with the notion that gold is the ultimate asset bubble?

FrankL, I understood perfectly what you wrote.

I guess the comment in the clip referred to Soros' "gold is the ultimate bubble" of Jan 2010.

From the first "see article here":

In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."

I am not aware of Soros making the same call about Gold being the ultimate bubble after that interview in Davos.

[FrankL]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

Ok if you understand what I tried to convey, then I don't seem to understand what you are saying at all. Specifically, I don't understand your idea about the following questions:

Why exactly do you not understand the 'gold is the ultimate asset bubble' line, and why is it relevant that Soros said in January 2010?

Why is it material that Soros was buying gold at the time? Makes perfect sense if he thinks it's the ultimate asset bubble in my opinion.

Why should I read Itulip instead of listening to Soros about gold being the ultimate bubble? From what I've read on Itulip, they seem to hold a similar position as Soros is propagating: it'll be the ultimate bubble when other bubbles pop.

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

Ok if you understand what I tried to convey, then I don't seem to understand what you are saying at all. Specifically, I don't understand your idea about the following questions:

Why exactly do you not understand the 'gold is the ultimate asset bubble' line, and why is it relevant that Soros said in January 2010?

Why is it material that Soros was buying gold at the time? Makes perfect sense if he thinks it's the ultimate asset bubble in my opinion.

Why should I read Itulip instead of listening to Soros about gold being the ultimate bubble? From what I've read on Itulip, they seem to hold a similar position as Soros is propagating: it'll be the ultimate bubble when other bubbles pop.

FrankL; two simple parts:

1) Soros in Jan10 said "Gold is the ultimate bubble now. Get out! Sell All your Gold".

2) Then, it turns out that Soros was buying Gold for himself at the same time he was making these statements about "you should sell Gold". (see also here).


Still with me? Ok. Lets continue;

Now, iTulip, said many times, "Gold is NOT a bubble". They said so again recently.

So my points are this: Gold is not a bubble and Soros is not an unbiased source of information about the Gold market.

[FrankL]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

FrankL; two simple parts:

1) Soros in Jan10 said "Gold is the ultimate bubble now. Get out! Sell All your Gold".

2) Then, it turns out that Soros was buying Gold for himself at the same time he was making these statements about "you should sell Gold". (see also here).


Still with me? Ok. Lets continue;

Now, iTulip, said many times, "Gold is NOT a bubble". They said so again recently.

So my points are this: Gold is not a bubble and Soros is not an unbiased source of information about the Gold market.

That's exactly what all my posts have been about! show me this 'now'. I don't see it anywhere in the quotes of Soros (e.g. see my first post). Nor did you address this point I raised in my first post in any of your replies!

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

That's exactly what all my posts have been about! show me this 'now'. I don't see it anywhere in the quotes of Soros (e.g. see my first post). Nor did you address this point I raised in my first post in any of your replies!

FrankL read the text below (Bold and U are mine):

Currency-trade billionaire and Open Society Institute benefactor George Soros tells Davos Man that gold is due for a fall. "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment," he told the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, according to The Telegraph. "The ultimate asset bubble is gold."

This is from this article here.

Now as you know, "is" means now. It is the present tense. Soros did not say "will be" not "shall be"...but "is" as in "right now".

Do you understand now?

[FrankL]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

FrankL read the text below (Bold and U are mine):



This is from this article here.

Now as you know, "is" means now. It is the present tense. Soros did not say "will be" not "shall be"...but "is" as in "right now".

Do you understand now?

ah, here's where I disagree with you. While stating that the ultimate asset bubble is gold, it does not equal (in my opinion) that gold necessarily is in an asset bubble right now. My view on this is that Soros merely stated that when the other bubbles pop, gold will be the last man standing (hence = ultimate asset bubble, hence his investment into gold).

I think Soros' quote is multiple interpretable, and knowing Soros he might have very well done that on purpose.

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

ah, here's where I disagree with you. While stating that the ultimate asset bubble is gold, it does not equal (in my opinion) that gold necessarily is in an asset bubble right now. My view on this is that Soros merely stated that when the other bubbles pop, gold will be the last man standing (hence = ultimate asset bubble, hence his investment into gold).

I think Soros' quote is multiple interpretable, and knowing Soros he might have very well done that on purpose.

What is unclear about "Gold is due for a fall" followed by "Gold is the ultimate bubble"?

Are you Soros and want to repent for your sins?

[FrankL]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

'gold is due for a fall' is not a quote by Soros, but an interpretation of his words by the editor of that article.

Again, I'll try and rephrase my conclusion: Soros has phrased his 'ultimate asset bubble is gold' in such a way that people might think he means that gold is currently overvalued, while in fact he actually means that gold will be 'the last man standing'. Of course, people misinterpreting him will only affect price of gold in a positive way for him to invest into it.

I'm not unique in interpreting his comment in this way. Look at the pages with the article you posted, and read the reader comments.
e.g. by 'Goldfinger' on May 17, 2010 3:59 on the telegraph.co.uk page, and the comment by 'Russ Smith' on January 29, 2010
at 10:03 AM on the baltimoresun.com page. Even Raja on the Itulip page you linked agrees with this possible interpretation.

And why do I think he says these things on purpose? Look at what Soros' previous occupations were. He was a scholar of Karl Popper, and his main problem with Popper's idea about open society was that it is too easy to change the perception of citizens, giving the appearance of a free choice in matters (or the best option) while the powers-that-be can continue to act in their own interests. With his involvement in ex-sovjet republics I cannot make a conclusion other than that Soros has become a cynic in his study on open society and started to use this knowledge for his own interests which don't necessary reflect the interest of the people. (i.e. he joined the powers-that-be of the anglo-american financial empire).

[LargoWinch]

Re: China's Gold Rush - May 17, 2010 (3min.)

'gold is due for a fall' is not a quote by Soros, but an interpretation of his words by the editor of that article.

That is correct FrankL.


However, I still believe you are wrong in your interpretation as the context is also important:

You see at the time of Soros' comments, Gold was making new highs and was frequently talked about in the MSM as being a "bubble" (as it is the case every time Gold achieves a new high).