Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

[LargoWinch]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

I really like you Largo, and I respect almost all your posts.

...

But I much enjoy and greatly respect the vast majority of your comments. You are a cool guy.

Thanks.

This is the kind of tripe which frankly leaves me wandering away from iTulip to search for forums where the clubby tribalism and groupie syndrome is a little less strident. It's just unattractive.

I am pretty sure I do not suffer from "groupie syndrome" just good memory.

[Chomsky]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

I really like you Largo, and I respect almost all your posts. But this response, with all the mentions to Peer-induced bannings, black marks, unproven track record, and blah blah blah just gives me a headache. This is the kind of tripe which frankly leaves me wandering away from iTulip to search for forums where the clubby tribalism and groupie syndrome is a little less strident. It's just unattractive.

But I much enjoy and greatly respect the vast majority of your comments. You are a cool guy.

No offense, but you're new here (not that I am that long in the tooth, but still). Phirang's an old pain in the ass from times of yore; his M.O. is to drop a provocative, contrarian one-liner, usually in a hostile and inflammatory tone, and refuse ever to elaborate on his thinking. Frankly, I'd love to hear it, but he never does. Tiresome IMO.

[raja]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

No offense, but you're new here (not that I am that long in the tooth, but still). Phirang's an old pain in the ass from times of yore; his M.O. is to drop a provocative, contrarian one-liner, usually in a hostile and inflammatory tone, and refuse ever to elaborate on his thinking. Frankly, I'd love to hear it, but he never does. Tiresome IMO.

I often don't get anything out of Phirang's post . . . and they do have a trollish quality.

denizens, I like your style, and hope to see more postings from you.

[phirang]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

You people can get agitated all you want - I have expenses to pay and can not afford to be mislead by amateurs, least of all someone as intellectually lazy and naive as Williams.

[metalman]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

You people can get agitated all you want - I have expenses to pay and can not afford to be mislead by amateurs, least of all someone as intellectually lazy and naive as Williams.

site:itulip.com conditions hyperinflation

Is hyperinflation possible?

05-10-08, 10:49 PM

The official iTulip position on hyperinflation: Warning about a dollar hyperinflation makes good theater but has little value from an investment perspective. As we've pointed out many times and most recently here in How to make $301% in six years with low volatility, dollar hyperinflation is not in the cards.

For a nation to experience a hyperinflation, all four of the following conditions need to be met:

1. Large and growing external debt as a percentage of GDP with falling GDP (Yes, like the US.)
2. Politically and economically isolated and irrelevant (Not like the US. Think: Zimbabwe.)
3. No external demand for the currency (Not like the US dollar. Think: Iraqi Dinar.)
4. Political chaos (i.e., tanks rolling down the street, not like the US.)

The US meets only the first condition. The US is certainly more politically isolated than in the past but as the world's largest economy is hardly irrelevant. The dollar is still a reserve currency so hardly meets the third criteria. The US is arguably one of the most politically stable on earth so the 4th condition is out.

Hardly the stuff of hyperinflation. That said, the value of a common share of USA, Inc.–the US dollar–will continue to come under pressure.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

LOL! @ video clip

[Guest]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

Dear beloved Largo-Winch -

Phirang has a provocative posting style - but do you really want to haul him into the stockades for his occasional provocative comment?

He's got, by the most conservative estimate, at least some small quantity of "actioned" wisdom on the markets - unless one wants to assume his claim that he lives off the markets to be a sham.

I don't - and I suggest the rest of us act like gentlemen giving him the benefit of the doubt, if not our adult and shrewdly estimated full credence.

I enjoy Phirang's exceedingly brief posts. He makes me think it over - always one more time - That leaves plenty of nuance, to still appreciate John Williams great contributions, in the preamble to this 'dollar crisis'.

A smart market observer can be resoundingly right in 80% of his analysis, and yet still be wrong on some remaining part. Truth is not black and white to conform to anyone's entirely elaborated game plan.

Let's see how the dollar collapse progresses, and remain collegial all to each other in disagreement?

Peace.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

Denizen, velvet covered hammers are welcomed here. The anvil won't break and something can come from the interchange as the metal is worked. Unfortunately, some of us can't work miracles from metal too well, but we appreciate and are awed by what's wrought from the process and the skilled artisan's efforts. Always nice to see an elegant new tool from the toolbox at work.

[cjppjc]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

No offense, but you're new here

No he isn't. Look again. Wait, wait for it. It will come to you.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

Shadowstats guy has NO IDEA wtf he's talking about.

I think you're right. I'm not sure why I think so, and I'm not feeling motivated to figure out why. He may or may not be wrong on all counts; even my deck of Tarot cards gets it right now and then. But I can feel my IQ declining as I listen to him.

[cjppjc]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

Largo, could you please embed the video? I'm having trouble with the site. Even before this dustup I very much wanted to see it. Thank you.

Phirang has a few unattractive qualities he doesn't bother to hide. Most people try to hide theirs. Most of his posts other than the long TLT position are / were usefull and informative. Phirang doesn't use phrases like imo, or I think. Confidence? Arrogance?

If Phirang was a female I would think less of her. So it goes to show you how preconditions lead to outcomes. You and I like John Williams and his work, so it is hard to read anything bad about him. Now as long as Phirang doesn't pick on Ron Paul.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

No he isn't. Look again. Wait, wait for it. It will come to you.

Huh? Are you saying denizens is not new here? All I have observed is that his login account is new, but he speaks with the voice of experience and carries himself with confidence. What am I missing?

[Sharky]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

I can't afford to have too many bad quarters or even many bad trades. Many here seem to have real jobs and hence aren't as sensitive to pnl fluctuations as I am, but I have developed an excellent BS filter, and Shadowstats guy has NO IDEA wtf he's talking about.

I subscribed to Williams' newsletter for 6 months, and read everything he wrote during that time -- and I would agree with the above.

Williams real skills are as an accountant / statistician. He knows enough to be able to correct the government-reported statistics, but that doesn't mean he knows anything about economics, much less investments or predictions of any kind.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

Dear beloved Largo-Winch -

Phirang has a provocative posting style - but do you really want to haul him into the stockades for his occasional provocative comment?

He's got, by the most conservative estimate, at least some small quantity of "actioned" wisdom on the markets - unless one wants to assume his claim that he lives off the markets to be a sham.

I don't - and I suggest the rest of us act like gentlemen giving him the benefit of the doubt, if not our adult and shrewdly estimated full credence.

I enjoy Phirang's exceedingly brief posts. He makes me think it over - always one more time - That leaves plenty of nuance, to still appreciate John Williams great contributions, in the preamble to this 'dollar crisis'.

A smart market observer can be resoundingly right in 80% of his analysis, and yet still be wrong on some remaining part. Truth is not black and white to conform to anyone's entirely elaborated game plan.

Let's see how the dollar collapse progresses, and remain collegial all to each other in disagreement?

Peace.

Well said denizens; I agree for the most part.

I just wish that sometimes Phirang would know where the line is, but I acknowledge that I was perhaps harsh on member Phirang and will use my "edit" function for some of my posts above.

Lastly, welcome to iTulip and make sure to post more often.

[Rajiv]

Re: Interview with John Williams od Shadowstats

Glad to have him back -- I missed him