Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

[cjppjc]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

What I don't get is 50% devaluation, gets you to 30 trillion of manageable debt in 17 years. Doesn't that assume no more huge deficits? That somehow unfunded mandates and runaway spending is controlled.

[sn1p3r]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

2 questions:

1. What are the political issues with the IMF/SDR solution?
2. Is the answer to those issues global gov't?

If the answer to 2 is yes then I have to apologize to my dad for calling him a "kook" for the last 15 years

[ricket]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

NO ******* SHIT DUDE! You ain't lying. The weirder it sounds or the cookier the source, the more likely it is to be factually correct at this point. (No, I am Drop DEAD SERIOUS!).

All the crack-pot consperacy theroists were the ones that had it right from the get-go.

I relate it to the Men In Black movies, where the headlines for all of the UFO/Alien stuff was in the zany headlines of the tabloids. If there were ever to be a signal to the elites of when/where/how to make major market moves, what channel do you think they would choose? Probably the least credible ones of all I would think...

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

What I don't get is 50% devaluation, gets you to 30 trillion of manageable debt in 17 years. Doesn't that assume no more huge deficits? That somehow unfunded mandates and runaway spending is controlled.

Agreed. The idea we're going to stop piling on more debt is unrealistic, short of a game changing event :eek:.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

Perhaps Mr. Frank is responding to a need to rein in the Fed's vaunted independence. Such a need would be felt by and encouraged by the world's leading oligarchs, who I'm guessing support this proposed wider use of SDR's as a world meta-currency.

My speculation that the oligarchy is downsizing the Fed aligns with another post at iTulip today: IMF to audit the FED?.

[Mega]

In his dreams

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-ZZFmKFk1s&feature=sub
Mike

[BigBagel]

Re: In his dreams

Why the 90% cash/10% gold recommendation for his conservative clients? Why not a higher percentage in gold? Can anyone explain his reasoning?

[Mega]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

I am shocked by this man, he comes across as very bright, yet he blind to many things. He assumes that America is in the driving seat (She is NOT) Also he fails to see the Geo-poltical angles.....
Mike

[rjwjr]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

You miss the point ENTIRELY, This was on CNBC for god's sakes! They just spilled the beans to J6P!

Uh-Oh! ( I don't think we get the slow steady dollar deprectiation that he talks about).

I have to agree with jtabeb on this one, metalman. We don't care that he may have been later to the party than EJ. In my mind, he came across as a very intelligent, very credible individual who happened to be sounding the same message. I, for one, appreciate that kind of confirmation and have added him to my list of potentially credible sages to begin following.

jtabeb, as for spilling the beans to J6P, when did CNBC become a primetime reality show? If it ain't Cramer saying it, I doubt J6P was listening.

[FRED]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

We like Richards' measured comments on the dollar, the problem with SDRs for the U.S., and of course agree with his recommendations on gold and Treasuries. Naturally, that advice was more useful in 2001 than today, but we have no way of knowing how long he has been issuing this advice to clients.

One of our few criticisms is that he has the relationship between gold and central bank holdings of gold backwards. Owning gold is not risky because central banks hate it. We hold gold as a hedge since 2001 primarily because central banks own gold even though they hate it. Our argument since 2001 is that the unwillingness of major central banks to go "all in" on a U.S. Treasury dollar based international money regime, without the gold reserves as a hedge, has everything to do European and Asian banks maintaining a modicum of leverage over the Fed.

[rjwjr]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

We like Richards' measured comments on the dollar, the problem with SDRs for the U.S., and of course agree with his recommendations on gold and Treasuries. Naturally, that advice was more useful in 2001 than today, but we have no way of knowing how long he has been issuing this advice to clients.

One of our few criticisms is that he has the relationship between gold and central bank holdings of gold backwards. Owning gold is not risky because central banks hate it. We hold gold as a hedge since 2001 primarily because central banks own gold even though they hate it. Our argument since 2001 is that the unwillingness of major central banks to go "all in" on a U.S. Treasury dollar based international money regime, without the gold reserves as a hedge, has everything to do European and Asian banks maintaining a modicum of leverage over the Fed.

Thank you for the insight and the clarification. It's precisely what makes you guys invaluable.

[skyson]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

yep... he's a heavyweight alright. and his advice to clients? 10/90 gold/cash. like this...



when did he start giving that advice? anyone know?

sorry, i am not familiar with treasuries. i just checked bank of canada's treasury bills, three month yield only 0.23. how could you earned on average of 4-5% in the last 10 years(am i wrong that US had similar interest rates in that period?)?

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/tbill.html

Also, when gold price increases, does that imply the treasury bill losing ground in real terms, although it seems to be gaining in nominal terms? So with a 15/85 allocation(early itulip portfolio?), the real investment return as a whole would not be as stellar as it seems...

[metalman]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

sorry, i am not familiar with treasuries. i just checked bank of canada's treasury bills, three month yield only 0.23. how could you earned on average of 4-5% in the last 10 years?

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/tbill.html

the chart is usa treasury bonds?

[skyson]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

the chart is usa treasury bonds?

thanks. can you comment on my question about the allocation?

[metalman]

Re: Future of the Dollar -- interesting analysis

thanks. can you comment on my question about the allocation?

if 15% gold & 85% treasuries 2001 - 2008... i get ~47% total.... 47.1% gold & 48% treasuries. compared to stocks?