Julian Robertson: Inflation and dollar crisis

[doom&gloom]

[D-Mack]

Re: Julian Robertson: Infaltion and the possible dollar crisis -- good video!

[rjwjr]

Julian Robertson Video

A couple of comments about Julian Robertson's comments in the posted video...

Early on he states that he thinks the recession is over, at least temproarily. WTF does that mean? Is it over or is it not over? If it's over "temporarily", I would define that as NOT being over. All he did here was to add to the confusion.

I don't understand his thinking behind his comment that we will not be able to repay our current debt, unless the Chinese & Japanese continue to buy it. How does going deeper in debt allow us to then pay back said debt, regardless of who buys it. What does it matter who owns the debt. it's our debt to repay regardless...and we can't...or can we? Again, he adds to the confusion.

In regards to solutions, he states that we (I assume he means the American people) would need to be "masochistic" in that we'd need to ask for tough solutions to be brought upon ourselves, otherwise he doesn't think the government will impose these tough "solutions". Then he later states that our savings rate is up to 12%. He seems to have all of the information, but seems to miss the point...we, the American people, are already making the sacrifices we need to make to increase our personal savings rates, reduce our spending, and shore-up our personal financial balance sheets; it's the idiots in Washington that have no discipline and are acting contrary to the current behavior of the American people. Of course, we individuals ain't looking to buy votes.

I found this guy's comments worthless and confusing. Am I missing something?

[GRG55]

Re: Julian Robertson: Infaltion and the possible dollar crisis -- good video!

The full 29 minutes of the interview can be seen here

[GRG55]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

A couple of comments about Julian Robertson's comments in the posted video...

Early on he states that he thinks the recession is over, at least temproarily. WTF does that mean? Is it over or is it not over? If it's over "temporarily", I would define that as NOT being over. All he did here was to add to the confusion.

I don't understand his thinking behind his comment that we will not be able to repay our current debt, unless the Chinese & Japanese continue to buy it. How does going deeper in debt allow us to then pay back said debt, regardless of who buys it. What does it matter who owns the debt. it's our debt to repay regardless...and we can't...or can we? Again, he adds to the confusion.

In regards to solutions, he states that we (I assume he means the American people) would need to be "masochistic" in that we'd need to ask for tough solutions to be brought upon ourselves, otherwise he doesn't think the government will impose these tough "solutions". Then he later states that our savings rate is up to 12%. He seems to have all of the information, but seems to miss the point...we, the American people, are already making the sacrifices we need to make to increase our personal savings rates, reduce our spending, and shore-up our personal financial balance sheets; it's the idiots in Washington that have no discipline and are acting contrary to the current behavior of the American people. Of course, we individuals ain't looking to buy votes.

I found this guy's comments worthless and confusing. Am I missing something?

Did you watch the full 29 minute interview or just the excerpted cut & paste 8 minute version?

I didn't find much of anything that was confusing when I watched the whole thing.

On the recession he said that it's over...for now. EJ also said the recession is over...and now the depression has begun. Robertson seemed to be sending much the same message.

On the debt repayment you seem to have missed his point that the USA is selling large amounts of short term debt [he speculates that may be because the Treasury is having trouble selling long-term US Dollar denominated debt]. Short term debt has to be continously rolled over as it expires...if the previous buyer doesn't want to buy another new debt issue from you then you have to pay the maturing debt issue in full [assuming you don't intend to default], either out of savings or from capital raised by selling new debt to someone else. He makes the point that the debt overwhelms the USA's puny savings, and asks if not the Chinese and Japanese "who else" will [or can?] buy such massive amounts of US debt? That's my interpretation of his commentary.

As for the idiots in Washington and their budget problems [compared to the newly virtuous private citizens you describe] where is most of the fiscal spending directed? Entitlement programs for all those virtuous private citizens, non? His point seemed to me that politicians over the years have not been willing to be truthful with the voters and many people probably don't really understand just how bad this is going to be.

I don't hold the opinions of people that are hugely wealthy in any particular high regard...the past decade or so has proven conclusively that you don't need to be very smart to make [and lose] a pile of dough. But Robertson is one of the folks that has access to the likes of Bernanke, Geithner, Congress and the White House so it's perhaps useful to pay attention to what he's saying, because he's probably saying the same things to the politicians. And this is now the ultimate evolution in an increasingly political global economy.

[Jay]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

On the debt repayment you seem to have missed his point that the USA is selling large amounts of short term debt [he speculates that may be because the Treasury is having trouble selling long-term US Dollar denominated debt]. Short term debt has to be continously rolled over as it expires...if the previous buyer doesn't want to buy another new debt issue from you then you have to pay that debt immediately - either out of 1) savings or from 2) capital raised by selling debt to someone else. He makes the point that the debt overwhelms the USA's puny savings, and asks if not the Chinese and Japanese "Who else" will buy such massive amounts of US debt?

Well, there is a third way to pay back that debt...
it involves ink, a large forest and magic. Oh, and a dash of poverty.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

You forget the 4th way -- default!

[GRG55]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

You forget the 4th way -- default!

Actually I edited my post to make reference to that possibility just before your post

But from a practical standpoint we all know the USA will inflate before it defaults...

[GRG55]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

Well, there is a third way to pay back that debt...
it involves ink, a large forest and magic. Oh, and a dash of poverty.

That's the same as 2. The Treasury issues the debt to the Federal Reserve, which purchases it using ink and processed trees - Bernanke's famous "the U.S. government has a technology"...

But the question remains...if the Fed can continue that process ad infinitum fine; but if not what is the limit on the Fed and what happens when it reaches that limit [other than the poverty]?

[rjwjr]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

Did you watch the full 29 minute interview or just the excerpted cut & paste 8 minute version?

I didn't find much of anything that was confusing when I watched the whole thing.

On the recession he said that it's over...for now. EJ also said the recession is over...and now the depression has begun. Robertson seemed to be sending much the same message.

On the debt repayment you seem to have missed his point that the USA is selling large amounts of short term debt [he speculates that may be because the Treasury is having trouble selling long-term US Dollar denominated debt]. Short term debt has to be continously rolled over as it expires...if the previous buyer doesn't want to buy another new debt issue from you then you have to pay the maturing debt issue in full [assuming you don't intend to default], either out of savings or from capital raised by selling new debt to someone else. He makes the point that the debt overwhelms the USA's puny savings, and asks if not the Chinese and Japanese "who else" will [or can?] buy such massive amounts of US debt? That's my interpretation of his commentary.

As for the idiots in Washington and their budget problems [compared to the newly virtuous private citizens you describe] where is most of the fiscal spending directed? Entitlement programs for all those virtuous private citizens, non? His point seemed to me that politicians over the years have not been willing to be truthful with the voters and many people probably don't really understand just how bad this is going to be.

I don't hold the opinions of people that are hugely wealthy in any particular high regard...the past decade or so has proven conclusively that you don't need to be very smart to make [and lose] a pile of dough. But Robertson is one of the folks that has access to the likes of Bernanke, Geithner, Congress and the White House so it's perhaps useful to pay attention to what he's saying, because he's probably saying the same things to the politicians. And this is now the ultimate evolution in an increasingly political global economy.

No, I didn't watch the full 29 minute version. Honestly, at this point, I don't care to. The guy simply didn't strike me as a profound thinker (EJ-type) or visionary/trend spotter (Rogers-type). I was underimpressed is all.

[metalman]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

Did you watch the full 29 minute interview or just the excerpted cut & paste 8 minute version?

I didn't find much of anything that was confusing when I watched the whole thing.

On the recession he said that it's over...for now. EJ also said the recession is over...and now the depression has begun. Robertson seemed to be sending much the same message.

On the debt repayment you seem to have missed his point that the USA is selling large amounts of short term debt [he speculates that may be because the Treasury is having trouble selling long-term US Dollar denominated debt]. Short term debt has to be continously rolled over as it expires...if the previous buyer doesn't want to buy another new debt issue from you then you have to pay the maturing debt issue in full [assuming you don't intend to default], either out of savings or from capital raised by selling new debt to someone else. He makes the point that the debt overwhelms the USA's puny savings, and asks if not the Chinese and Japanese "who else" will [or can?] buy such massive amounts of US debt? That's my interpretation of his commentary.

As for the idiots in Washington and their budget problems [compared to the newly virtuous private citizens you describe] where is most of the fiscal spending directed? Entitlement programs for all those virtuous private citizens, non? His point seemed to me that politicians over the years have not been willing to be truthful with the voters and many people probably don't really understand just how bad this is going to be.

I don't hold the opinions of people that are hugely wealthy in any particular high regard...the past decade or so has proven conclusively that you don't need to be very smart to make [and lose] a pile of dough. But Robertson is one of the folks that has access to the likes of Bernanke, Geithner, Congress and the White House so it's perhaps useful to pay attention to what he's saying, because he's probably saying the same things to the politicians. And this is now the ultimate evolution in an increasingly political global economy.

the relevance of this from robertson is not that he says anything new but that he is saying it in public.

[audrey_girl]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

the relevance of this from robertson is not that he says anything new but that he is saying it in public.

would have been really great, if people as respected and powerful like this, were as honest and public about this, say about 7-8 years ago

its too late now - this bus is going over the cliff - shame

all you can really do now is brace for impact for yourself and family

[cjppjc]

Re: Julian Robertson Video

would have been really great, if people as respected and powerful like this, were as honest and public about this, say about 7-8 years ago

its too late now - this bus is going over the cliff - shame

all you can really do now is brace for impact for yourself and family

This is so true. It would now be a good thing if respected and powerful people would now just say those last two sentences of yours.

[mooncliff]

Re: Julian Robertson: Inflation and dollar crisis

Hmm, tell the people the truth?

Does he mean like "drive 55"? "If we don't become energy efficient, we will become beholden to foreign powers"? Tried that 30 years ago.

Too childish to deal with it, and they will look for whoever will tell them it is Morning in America again.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Julian Robertson: Inflation and dollar crisis

More footage from this interview below:




He is using a case scenario in which inflation would reach 15%-20%.