America.....The coming collaspe of 09

[Mega]

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=CtpsV0zMM3s

Total collaspe
Revolution
Pain

............and hopfully am American wife for Mega!

Mike

[BadJuju]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

The man is a fraud and has been exposed as one before.

[Wild Style]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

The man is a fraud and has been exposed as one before.

when....link?

[ricket]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

The man is a fraud and has been exposed as one before.

Proof?

Otherwise, your 6 posts will explain it all...

[BadJuju]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

All of his predictions have been incredibly generalized without any real substance to them. Some of what he says may be true, but he does not offer anything substantive to back what he says up. Why even listen to him when Janszen has made much better predictions with actual data to back it up?

[LargoWinch]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=CtpsV0zMM3s

Total collaspe
Revolution
Pain

............and hopfully am American wife for Mega!

Mike

Sorry Clockwork Orange guy this is kinda...boring.

[santafe2]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

All of his predictions have been incredibly generalized without any real substance to them. Some of what he says may be true, but he does not offer anything substantive to back what he says up. Why even listen to him when Janszen has made much better predictions with actual data to back it up?

One of the great things about iTulip, is that one can't often defend a specific allegation with a generalized defense. You'll simply get called out even if your point is correct. It's especially difficult when you're accusing someone of being incredibly general and without substance while using incredibly general accusations without substance. You also find that you entertain logical fallacy at your own risk. I see three in the above paragraph. If you dislike Celente, and can support your argument with some research, you'll find several other posters who support your position and come to your defense. iTulip contains several discussions regarding Celente if you would like to fill your quiver before you respond to this thread.

And if you find that task daunting, don't forget, Mega wants an American wife. One assumes, South American. He may be thinking of Brazil or has desperation lead him to a Hooters in South Dakota? That's definitely a new thread.

[TRake]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

Here is something that may not be so boring....
My job consists of monitoring and balancing electrical demand in a highly industrial area near chicago. Customers are PX, X, MT, BP.......
I have noticed that for the calendar 4th quarter the demand from all of these industries went to zero. For the entire 3 months nothing was being made. Then at the start of the year everything was back to normal. I also have some friends that work at these companies and others that supply these companies. I know that MT and X were placing orders on backlog during this period. I also know that MT has a firing plan that is based on or around the Obama stimulus announcements. I also know that MT increased its maintenance expenditures from 0 to 350,000 per month starting the new year.
Based on all of this my first conclusion is that we may be setting up for a false market bottom with the earnings that are rolling through. I am sure that demand for all of these companies will not go straight up from here. Personally I have set up a strategy for the potential bottoms in some of the names listed. I only see us going straight up from here if Obama does start his bank and gives it the 800 billion stimulus money to loan out at 15 to 1 or better (or worse depending on your position) for US programs. That kind of capital injection might do something.

If I am completely off please let me know.

TRake

[FRED]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

For the entire 3 months nothing was being made. Then at the start of the year everything was back to normal. TRake

Clarification, please. What do you mean by "nothing was being made" and "everything was back to normal"? Thanks.

[TRake]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

Fred,

What I mean is that thier electrical load went to zero meaning they were not running machines and making steel or gas or fuel, depending on the company. For example, when X or MT is producing new product they have two main furnaces called electronic arc furnaces (EAF's) that melt the steel. When these furnaces come on they instantly use up to 150 million watts (Mega Watts or MW's) of power. These furnaces were running every day all day until some time in the 3rd quarter of 2008. Then they shut down completely for the entire 4th quarter of 2008. When we entered 2009 after the holiday, X and MT both were running there furnaces just like they did prior to Q3 2008. They run these furnaces every day all day except for Tuesday's for maintenance. In 2007 this shutdown did not happen in the 4th quarter. In 2007 they may have slowed a little, but not at all like they did this year.

TRake

[TRake]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

Another thing......I know that emplyee's of MT were offered a stock option buying program. They were offered to buy stock at a 2% discount from the going rate unless the price of MT was < or = $15, then they would have to pay $15 no matter what. This seems to suggest that MT is trying to buoy their price and create a base of $15.

TRake

[metalman]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

Fred,

What I mean is that thier electrical load went to zero meaning they were not running machines and making steel or gas or fuel, depending on the company. For example, when X or MT is producing new product they have two main furnaces called electronic arc furnaces (EAF's) that melt the steel. When these furnaces come on they instantly use up to 150 million watts (Mega Watts or MW's) of power. These furnaces were running every day all day until some time in the 3rd quarter of 2008. Then they shut down completely for the entire 4th quarter of 2008. When we entered 2009 after the holiday, X and MT both were running there furnaces just like they did prior to Q3 2008. They run these furnaces every day all day except for Tuesday's for maintenance. In 2007 this shutdown did not happen in the 4th quarter. In 2007 they may have slowed a little, but not at all like they did this year.

TRake

interesting. has that ever happened before? are they back to full power now?

[TRake]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

I don't know about the 1970's, but this has not happened in the recent past.

[c1ue]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

TRake,

Out of curiosity, has the price of electrical power been constant through this entire period (Q1-Q4 2008)?

I ask because United just ate a nearly $1B loss in Q4 due to fuel hedging.

What's even more interesting is that only about 1/3 of the amount is 'booked', the remainder is ongoing.

I have speculated before that some of the demand loss is due to these hedges unwinding.

In your ArcMit and US Steel examples, perhaps price spikes from the summer combined with anticipated loss of demand contributed to the shutdown you saw.

What would be a smoking gun is if these facilities were in fact 'shut down' - everyone sent home on enforced vacation. This has been going on with the semi companies, for example.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: America.....The coming collaspe of 09

we may be setting up for a false market bottom with the earnings that are rolling through.

And could you clarify what the above means? Does it mean that you anticipate (1) improved profits and business showing in these companies for this quarter, due to their working off the backlog from the fourth quarter, only to be followed by (2) another collapse in production when new orders fall short.

As a result, the profits of this quarter may boost the stock price for the moment, only for sales, production and the stock price to fall further next quarter?

Is that more or less what you're saying?