gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

Can't say I find your game plan too focused on the most probable events upcoming.

Don't forget you are looking at $400 oil in just another seven or eight years? Yes indeed. $400 well within a decade. While the entire world tries to squeeze through the eye of a needle into a non-hydrocarbons new industrial paradigm in the space of maybe 5 years out there? Stock markets? Uh, better be equipped with multiple airbags.

And gold is not necessarily a "safe" asset as it can see 25% drawdowns (or worse!) any time. $400 oil makes the events you ponder below concerning the presence or absence of fiscal prudence in America a sideshow - because the larger inflationary event will be happening to all nations in the world. Still does not seem to have sunk in to a lot of iTuliper's frames of reference. If you don't buy the $400 a barrel oil in 7 years you should nonetheless obtain a firsthand view of our progress towards that end within a much shorter time frame, e.g. two to three more years?

A) Pondering possibilities for US fiscal prudence leading to a stronger US dollar and a stable US economy is a waste of time, because all paper money is going to catch fire and incinerate in a world of $400 a barrel oil, along with the economies too, who will be convulsing as they try to squeeze 40 years of industrial paradigm changes frantically into 10 years, and B) the flowering of "GreenTech" and the growth of India and China, and the distinction of "stable" vs. "unstable stock markets" may be an entirely moot point as well, as $400 oil well and truly puts the entire world economy in crisis.

That is really all we need to know. Are we really going to have $400 oil in seven or eight years, and if so, how can any of our economies or stock markets possibly remain "normal"? Some people here suggest that will be orderly, like an English bus queue - I think that requires a remarkable stretch of the imagination.

<< My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state >>

I say, "Dream on".

Ah, Lukester, you didn't hear the IF of my answer to the rumor that the economy is deflating.

If I thought our economy was deflating, that is how I would act.

I agree with you that it is not...between the banking mess, the ridiculous government debt levels, and debt peonage ever expanding in the U.S. and around the world, I feel it is far more likely that we will have a good deal of inflation, and a truly scary economic climate for some time.

None of my investments are in stock...just gold, and some well located rental property, as well as living on a tiny farm that can produce most of what my family eats.

I do hope that the powers that be manage to re-orient our economy into Green Tech, mostly so that I can go completely off grid at a cheaper price than I can now, but I am prepared with plans for whatever happens. I would also like to take advantage of communication and transportation technology around the world, a bit here, and a bit there, so as to tred lightly in these essentially risky business climates.

But, since I don't believe the powers that be will be able to do all that much, I am hunkering down, and getting ready to weather a very bad storm.

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

My bad. And indeed what you describe is a very cautious stance. The little farm forms a very valuable part of the overall configuration also, as one of the most direct expressions of ultra-expensive oil must be directly into the food complex. We all need to keep in mind however that to call gold and silver "safe" is a considerable misconception. You are making a very specific market call by positioning significantly into these. Having said that, I have yet to read a compelling argument anywhere, as to how $400 oil could cause a rise in the purchasing power of fiat money in a fiat money world.

None of my investments are in stock...just gold, and some well located rental property, as well as living on a tiny farm that can produce most of what my family eats.

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

We all need to keep in mind however that to call gold and silver "safe" is a considerable misconception.

I agree that an investment in metals is not entirely safe, but so long as you are prepared to neither access the metal, bury it deep, and wait for however long it takes for the value to equal the original investment, I don't see a problem, particularly when I call all paper money FAKE money these days, and consider it only worthwhile until I spend it...mostly these days on upgrading the little farm, and gathering in long term food and water storage, against disaster.

You are making a very specific market call by positioning significantly into these. Having said that, I have yet to read a compelling argument anywhere, as to how $400 oil could cause a rise in the purchasing power of fiat money in a fiat money world.

Having been expecting $10.00/gallon gas prices since 1985 - after a trip to England when I drove around the island at $7.00 dollars/gallon - I see a rapid, forced switch to public transportation, and an immediate switch to commuting by phone and computer. Americans have always done what they have to, although I admit we've gotten out of practice lately.

But unless America starts switching their energy dollars into restructuring how we live in America, I don't see any happy endings for anyone. And if we actually do....well, then I can see light at the end of the tunnel.

With gold and silver, one has the reality of true coinage, and one has to look at what gold and silver will buy, particularly since there is little income to be had of it, unless you are buying and selling large lots constantly.

Since saving fiat currency at a stated 4% APR is actually closer to -4% in real terms, I would rather have my cash in metals, and my long term investments in small rental properties that are held forever. As the economy strengthens, then I'll take an occasional flyer on a stock or two.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

I agree that an investment in metals is not entirely safe, but so long as you are prepared to neither access the metal, bury it deep, and wait for however long it takes for the value to equal the original investment, I don't see a problem, particularly when I call all paper money FAKE money these days, and consider it only worthwhile until I spend it...mostly these days on upgrading the little farm, and gathering in long term food and water storage, against disaster.



Having been expecting $10.00/gallon gas prices since 1985 - after a trip to England when I drove around the island at $7.00 dollars/gallon - I see a rapid, forced switch to public transportation, and an immediate switch to commuting by phone and computer. Americans have always done what they have to, although I admit we've gotten out of practice lately.

But unless America starts switching their energy dollars into restructuring how we live in America, I don't see any happy endings for anyone. And if we actually do....well, then I can see light at the end of the tunnel.

With gold and silver, one has the reality of true coinage, and one has to look at what gold and silver will buy, particularly since there is little income to be had of it, unless you are buying and selling large lots constantly.

Since saving fiat currency at a stated 4% APR is actually closer to -4% in real terms, I would rather have my cash in metals, and my long term investments in small rental properties that are held forever. As the economy strengthens, then I'll take an occasional flyer on a stock or two.

the argument around here for why gas didn't go to $10 is the dollar cartel and the bubble the fire economy created in dollars, making oil cheap. the uk... and ireland, australia, and others... had fire econs of their own. the uk's is toast and the pound is getting pounded. the usa's is over and the bonar is on its way to pesoville. as always some stocks will go up, but i'm not smart enough to pick 'em...

'I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.' - jesse livermore

' The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.' - jesse livermore

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

the argument around here for why gas didn't go to $10 is the dollar cartel and the bubble the fire economy created in dollars, making oil cheap. the uk... and ireland, australia, and others... had fire econs of their own. the uk's is toast and the pound is getting pounded. the usa's is over and the bonar is on its way to pesoville. as always some stocks will go up, but i'm not smart enough to pick 'em...

'I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.' - jesse livermore

' The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.' - jesse livermore

Jumping into the stock market just now would scare me to death! I don't know enough about who is who right now, and whether they are safe (comparatively) to invest in.

Not being a high flyer, and trying to keep my nest egg from getting broken, I need to be playing with the house's money in order to just throw it away. But I have my eye on a few little companies, and if they survive this cycle, I'll know where to place my bet.