gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

will rogers was making a joke... you can't not buy a stock because it didnt go up, you've already bought it. that's called irony.

this livermore quote sounds like what ej was saying: "Every stock is like a human being : it has a personality - a distinctive personality - aggressive, reserved, hyper, high-strung, volatile, boring, direct, logical, predictable, unpredictable. I often studied stocks like I would study people; after a while their reactions to certain circumstances become more predictable."

livermore was anti-trading, just life all the guys who made lots of money: "Throughout all my years of investing I've found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting."

that's not what he did, tho. he kept trading anyway, even though he knew it wasn't the way to make money. the #1 problem with active trading is that it uses up your time. the jim rogers way, you spend your time living your life... livermore's most famous quotation: "My life has been a failure."

Believe it or not, I do and have from first reading of Will Rogers' quote understood it. Actually, it strikes me more as being a non sequitur; whatever it is, it is possible to accomplish the first part: buy a good stock and hold it till it goes up. That is possible. But then what is next? It could go down, at which time my approach would be to have decided, hopefully, when I would cut the loss of profits.

Life in interesting. When I worked 10 or more hours most days, and 5-6 most Saturdays and Sundays, more than once someone told me to "get a life." Often these were people who spent their times doing the same things repetitively when they did not work. Golfing incessantly, tailgating at every home and away ballgame, fishing, hunting, playing gin or bridge with every free minute, etc. I've lived life, I been around the world and many other places abroad more than I can readily count. I've traveled in all the states and seen many things--but not everything in the world for sure. I'm met my share of interesting characters.

Presently, which has actually been for a couple or three years, the only thing that seriously interests me is attempting to make more money by playing in the stock market. Nothing else attracts my interest--whether that is good or bad in the eyes of any other human, I don't give a shit.
I'm not out to make the money because I have immediate needs for it, just to do it is the game.

If I die today, my life has been a good life. There are things looking back that were it possible, I'd do differently, but that isn't life. Several effects from my life, which I found out by chance, are to my assessment perhaps the most important results of my life. Probably we never know what has been the full impact of our lives, so to make a self-assessment could come up short.

Edit: The best part of my life right now, is that I can do any goddammed thing I wish to do, and that was not the case for most of my life.

[jk]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

That said, I've made some decent timing calls that make it appear as though making money on trade timing is possible. For consistency, I will not longer provide those here but elsewhere.

eric, "elsewhere" meaning other threads or meaning other venues than itulip?

[rabot10]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

he doesn't know how to use google. he's still trying to figure out the dewey decimal system.

lol Me too, i sold half of my PMs at 19.6 silver and 980 gold. Not because I have a brain more because i was scared of the big draw downs i have experienced every time the PMs make a big run. Only wish that i had gotten all out. I know I know they would have then gone up.

Luke, it would be nice to know who to subscribe to or pay to get the advice. Not sure i would take it as i am getting way too much as it is. But if your numbers come in, i will send u a check for the name big guy. How is So Calif doing?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Lukester's undisclosed advisor's call: Gold 650, silver 9.80 based on ??

Bensimon's July call. Gold 732 in April or May 2009 based on Elliot wave and Fibonacci numbers.

akrowne's assessment. $780 marginal cost of production of gold

babbittd: Robin Griffiths 750 based on ??

EJ.'s call: He just knows--780

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GO...69&a=129594324

Here's stockcharts.com continuous contract prices with low yesterday of 777.70.

If EJ, akrowne, or Griffiths are near correct, most of the pain is passed.

If Bensimom is correct there is still 5.9% to the downside from yesterday's low.

If the undisclosed advisor were to be correct, there is still 16.4% to the downside from yesterday's low for gold.

Here is another call on gold by Marc Faber http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...stem-blows-up/

Dr Doom: ‘Let us just assume the financial system blows up…’

Gold — and the division of assets - is on the mind of Marc (aka Dr Doom) Faber this week in a special interim note to his subscribers. It’s not a particularly attractive trade right now, he notes, although personally, he’s hooked. And anyway, people have been asking …..

For investors with all their assets in US dollar cash (and no other holdings), Faber suggests accumulating gold from here on down to possibly $600/oz. While not necessarily forecasting such a drop (from the current level of about $820/oz), he notes the metal could decline to that level.

Those with “99 per cent of their assets in gold and no cash flow” should hold for now, says Faber, as the gold chart looks “truly horrible” since prices fell below the key support levels of around $850.

For traders, however, gold may have some short-term appeal right now because it is becoming oversold. But what, then, is the immediate upside potential? Heavy resistance would seem to exist at $850-$900 while the downside risk is at least as large as the upside potential.

If you care to look, click the link from my original post above and as of 8/21/08 $GOLD moved back above its 325 DMA.

Can anyone imagine an investor that Faber knows who has 99% of their assets in gold? I can't.

Unless I missed something above, Faber's notion of a possible 600$ floor for $Gold is the lowest I encountered from any pundit.

[Finster]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Gold is only a monetary dysfunction story.

Kinda like oil ... ;)

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Kinda like oil ... ;)

Finster! You have returned! I was beginning to think the two headed Cerberus dog had lost one of it's noggins. All I can report is that the Bart-Cerberus has been a little more frequent a poster than usual in past months (translates as uttering more than a few monosyllables occasionally) but this has probably been due to his "other half" having gone out for an extended Sabbatical. Have you been sojourning in the "Brown Study"?

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Hi Rick -

Apologies for the late reply - I have an office move on my hands down here. I'll PM you on the weekend.

lol Me too, i sold half of my PMs at 19.6 silver and 980 gold. Not because I have a brain more because i was scared of the big draw downs i have experienced every time the PMs make a big run. Only wish that i had gotten all out. I know I know they would have then gone up.

Luke, it would be nice to know who to subscribe to or pay to get the advice. Not sure i would take it as i am getting way too much as it is. But if your numbers come in, i will send u a check for the name big guy. How is So Calif doing?

[Finster]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Finster! You have returned! I was beginning to think the two headed Cerberus dog had lost one of it's noggins. All I can report is that the Bart-Cerberus has been a little more frequent a poster than usual in past months (translates as uttering more than a few monosyllables occasionally) but this has probably been due to his "other half" having gone out for an extended Sabbatical. Have you been sojourning in the "Brown Study"?

Never really left, Lukester. I started a band and it's been taking a lot of time. It will probably continue to do so for a while until we get our basic repertoire down. But meanwhile, I will still have to pop in at least now and then just to make sure you and Bart don't get tooo out of line ... ;)

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?
Because prices fell so sharply after the short sales were taken (with the appropriate dirty tricks as I have previously explained) holders of known physical silver in the world suffered a decline in value of more than $2.5 billion and long COMEX silver futures holders suffered a similar $2.5 billion decline in the value of their contracts. In gold, because the dollar value held is much greater than silver, investor losses were much greater, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars on their physical holdings. Declines in the value of mining shares adds many billions more. Was this loss of value caused by the concentrated short selling of 2 or 3 U.S. banks?
What real legitimate business do 2 or 3 U.S. banks suddenly have for selling short such quantities of speculative instruments over a brief time period? Do we want banks to be engaging in this type of activity? If the manipulation was not successful, would U.S. taxpayers be called on to bail out yet another bank speculation gone bad?

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php

Reminds me of the ESF funded by FDR stealing gold at 20/oz and reselling it at 35/oz...

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php

Reminds me of the ESF funded by FDR stealing gold at 20/oz and reselling it at 35/oz...

Manipulation of this kind seems to be the hallmark of those who induce fear in others, and then profit by it.

In possessing gold at least we have more in our hands than a piece of paper, or a brokers statement telling us that we have 'wealth', and can hopefully bear the daily supposed gains and losses in value that we might have had, 'if only'!

Many investors have gotten so used to the idea of buying paper investments low, and selling high that they forget that with gold they own something tangible that has a real value, no matter how it is expressed in fiat currency reckoning.

Gold is never worthless, though it is true that on rare occasions in history there may have been nothing to trade it for. And, since the value of gold is not entirely dependant on those manipulating it's trading, one can, with a little patience, watch with relative equinimity the banking houses and governments play their games.

One may not be able to always buy and sell gold at the perfect highs and lows, but holding ownership of a chunk of the stuff is comforting.

Gold has the infinite reassurance inherent in it, that it is a real form of wealth that has value attached to it by almost anyone.

It takes only a little shift of perception to learn to bear not looking at the daily gains and losses of the fiat currency value of gold, and simply hang on to the knowledge that despite the number of dollars you might have traded for it, gold is the real measure of value, and that if the price of gold goes down, you have lost nothing but a perceived value.

The gold is still gold. The currency's stated worth is what truly changes.

What is left for us to do then is to watch without emotion for the times to buy and sell, and buy again.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Manipulation of this kind seems to be the hallmark of those who induce fear in others, and then profit by it.

In possessing gold at least we have more in our hands than a piece of paper, or a brokers statement telling us that we have 'wealth', and can hopefully bear the daily supposed gains and losses in value that we might have had, 'if only'!

Many investors have gotten so used to the idea of buying paper investments low, and selling high that they forget that with gold they own something tangible that has a real value, no matter how it is expressed in fiat currency reckoning.

Gold is never worthless, though it is true that on rare occasions in history there may have been nothing to trade it for. And, since the value of gold is not entirely dependant on those manipulating it's trading, one can, with a little patience, watch with relative equinimity the banking houses and governments play their games.

One may not be able to always buy and sell gold at the perfect highs and lows, but holding ownership of a chunk of the stuff is comforting.

Gold has the infinite reassurance inherent in it, that it is a real form of wealth that has value attached to it by almost anyone.

It takes only a little shift of perception to learn to bear not looking at the daily gains and losses of the fiat currency value of gold, and simply hang on to the knowledge that despite the number of dollars you might have traded for it, gold is the real measure of value, and that if the price of gold goes down, you have lost nothing but a perceived value.

The gold is still gold. The currency's stated worth is what truly changes.

What is left for us to do then is to watch without emotion for the times to buy and sell, and buy again.

But wait, the financial times told me we're entering deflation...:rolleyes:

[jk]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

if you read jesse livermore, you'll read lots of stories of stock manipulations - driving prices up or down to fleece other holders. there is no doubt that buying or selling a huge number of futures contracts in what is a relatively small market - like that of the pm's - will in the short run drive prices this way or that. but it seems to me that it cannot affect prices in the long run. the shorts must be covered, the longs must be closed eventually. open interest goes up and then down again. and the long term trend - the really long term trend - is untouched.

by the same token, i think it naive to believe that this moment's gold price is necessarily a true measure of value. to believe so is to assert that this moment's price is resting precisely on the long term trend line. but this is unlikely. it is much more likely that there is some momentary deviation from the trend, and it is especially likely that there is a significant such deviation in the face of a quick and big expansion of open interest in a relatively small market. otoh, these deviations of value from the trend line provide opportunities for trading for those so inclined.

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

But wait, the financial times told me we're entering deflation...:rolleyes:

They might be wrong, but even if they are correct, to me that would be a good thing, so that the economy worldwide can stabilize, and not go through an inflationary cycle.

If the dollar deflates, my income in dollars will rise in value, and buy more, while the price of gold will adjust to what the dollar buys, and as demand for it is still high, I will be able to sell gold at a true, uninflated profit, having transferred my cash to gold in 2005.

I am not in gold to make a profit due to inflation, but because of coming scarcity of the metal, and to have my liquidity in a safe, tradable asset that is able to survive inflationary times.

My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state. In addition, with a more stable economy, I will be able to invest that dollar income in the GreenTech Infrastructure industry with some confidence that I will not lose innate value in those investments due to an inflationary spiral.

As a stronger, more stable economy winds into action here in America, I can invest dollars that are suddenly worth more into a safer U.S.. market, and profit from riskier investments to profit from the growth industries in India and China.

[Forrest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

if you read jesse livermore, you'll read lots of stories of stock manipulations - driving prices up or down to fleece other holders. there is no doubt that buying or selling a huge number of futures contracts in what is a relatively small market - like that of the pm's - will in the short run drive prices this way or that. but it seems to me that it cannot affect prices in the long run. the shorts must be covered, the longs must be closed eventually. open interest goes up and then down again. and the long term trend - the really long term trend - is untouched.

by the same token, i think it naive to believe that this moment's gold price is necessarily a true measure of value. to believe so is to assert that this moment's price is resting precisely on the long term trend line. but this is unlikely. it is much more likely that there is some momentary deviation from the trend, and it is especially likely that there is a significant such deviation in the face of a quick and big expansion of open interest in a relatively small market. otoh, these deviations of value from the trend line provide opportunities for trading for those so inclined.

It is true that today's gold price is not necessarily reflective of a specific value in any currency, but despite global fiat currencies, it does have a value that can be realized even in the worst markets.

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Forrest -

Can't say I find your game plan too focused on the most probable events upcoming.

Don't forget you are looking at $400 oil in just another seven or eight years? Yes indeed. $400 well within a decade. While the entire world tries to squeeze through the eye of a needle into a non-hydrocarbons new industrial paradigm in the space of maybe 5 years out there? Stock markets? Uh, better be equipped with multiple airbags.

And gold is not necessarily a "safe" asset as it can see 25% drawdowns (or worse!) any time. $400 oil makes the events you ponder below concerning the presence or absence of fiscal prudence in America a sideshow - because the larger inflationary event will be happening to all nations in the world. Still does not seem to have sunk in to a lot of iTuliper's frames of reference. If you don't buy the $400 a barrel oil in 7 years you should nonetheless obtain a firsthand view of our progress towards that end within a much shorter time frame, e.g. two to three more years?

A) Pondering possibilities for US fiscal prudence leading to a stronger US dollar and a stable US economy is a waste of time, because all paper money is going to catch fire and incinerate in a world of $400 a barrel oil, along with the economies too, who will be convulsing as they try to squeeze 40 years of industrial paradigm changes frantically into 10 years, and B) the flowering of "GreenTech" and the growth of India and China, and the distinction of "stable" vs. "unstable stock markets" may be an entirely moot point as well, as $400 oil well and truly puts the entire world economy in crisis.

That is really all we need to know. Are we really going to have $400 oil in seven or eight years, and if so, how can any of our economies or stock markets possibly remain "normal"? Some people here suggest that will be orderly, like an English bus queue - I think that requires a remarkable stretch of the imagination.

<< My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state >>

I say, "Dream on".

They might be wrong, but even if they are correct, to me that would be a good thing, so that the economy worldwide can stabilize, and not go through an inflationary cycle.

If the dollar deflates, my income in dollars will rise in value, and buy more, while the price of gold will adjust to what the dollar buys, and as demand for it is still high, I will be able to sell gold at a true, uninflated profit, having transferred my cash to gold in 2005.

I am not in gold to make a profit due to inflation, but because of coming scarcity of the metal, and to have my liquidity in a safe, tradable asset that is able to survive inflationary times.

My newly earned more valuable dollars under deflation, that I receive as income from other investments, on the other hand, will be able to buy more of profitable investments than they can in their current weak state. In addition, with a more stable economy, I will be able to invest that dollar income in the GreenTech Infrastructure industry with some confidence that I will not lose innate value in those investments due to an inflationary spiral.

As a stronger, more stable economy winds into action here in America, I can invest dollars that are suddenly worth more into a safer U.S.. market, and profit from riskier investments to profit from the growth industries in India and China.