gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

ah, c'mon, jim. it'll be fun having luke in the back room behind the main room of the itulip bar and grill. too stuffy in there anyway... we can use the levity.

I can tolerate his levity and look forward to it, it is the unending creative writing with unending use of metaphors that wear me out. I think Lukester is a genius, or near that, while at the same time he has no respect for other people's times.

So far from having omitted reading much of what he has posted in recent times, I am doing well with making money, so I don't guess I have missed anything important.

[vcif]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Does anyone have any comments about short positions in gold relative to the price? This gets mentioned a lot by the GATA folks, but I haven't seen anyone here mention it.

EJ's call is consistent with the fact that Goldman Sachs' net short position is currently at an "all-time low".

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

What about the USD? Does it bust out past 80? I say yes, it does.

[GRG55]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

What about the USD? Does it bust out past 80? I say yes, it does.

Doesn't that depend on how long before the next credit "event" hits critical mass?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

What about the USD? Does it bust out past 80? I say yes, it does.

Here's a 10-year chart on US$.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$US...31&a=132940973

The move up from the 70.70 low, most of which has been off the secondary low of 71.31 in mid-July, has been powerful, and because 80 is almost within spitting distance, I expect the odds favor it reaching 80.

The move has been mostly uncorrected, so it may take some time before it continues up. Even 78 would take it above the highs back to December 2006.
Below is a one-year chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$US...76&a=132940973

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Here's a 10-year chart on US$.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$US...31&a=132940973

The move up from the 70.70 low, most of which has been off the secondary low of 71.31 in mid-July, has been powerful, and because 80 is almost within spitting distance, I expect the odds favor it reaching 80.

The move has been mostly uncorrected, so it may take some time before it continues up. Even 78 would take it above the highs back to December 2006.
Below is a one-year chart.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$US...76&a=132940973

100, 90, 80, 70... short term meaningless. long term meaningful.

remember when below 80 meant the world was gonna melt down? didn't, did it? i can show you a dozen threads of guys who claimed it'd never happen. their claims have been forgotten, of course. no one cares. doesn't matter.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

100, 90, 80, 70... short term meaningless. long term meaningful.

remember when below 80 meant the world was gonna melt down? didn't, did it? i can show you a dozen threads of guys who claimed it'd never happen. their claims have been forgotten, of course. no one cares. doesn't matter.

Things you seem unable to grasp is that most markets move up and down despite whatever may be the overall trend, and that there are more ways to make money than the way you choose to invest. It is possible to trade these up and down moves if one chooses to take the time and risk the money. I, for one, am not going to live forever, and it makes all the sense in the world to me to attempt to define moves and play them. A lot will happen in which money can be made between now and the time the dollar becomes totally valueless in these up and down moves.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Things you seem unable to grasp is that most markets move up and down despite whatever may be the overall trend, and that there are more ways to make money that the way you choose to invest. It is possible to trade these up and down moves if one chooses to take the time and risk the money. I, for one, am not going to live forever, and it makes all the sense in the world to me to attempt to define moves and play them. A lot will happen in which money can be made between now and the time the dollar becomes totally valueless in these up and down moves.

you're a funny guy. you obsess over these up and down moves even though the pros all say pick a bet and stick with it... soros, rogers, buffett... anyone who has ever made real money. famous traders like jesse livermore got rich, poor, rich, poor. trick is if you are a trader is not run out of gas when you're poor.

if you're going to trade, figure there is another guy on the other side trying to take your money. ask yourself, are you smarter?

i know i'm not. so i pick a macro trend and ride it. that's why i'm here.

jesse's full of wisdom...

The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.

The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.

I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Anybody else got a call on whether the USD busts out over 80 here? Or you all figure it's a slam-dunk that it's going to "behave" and resume it's downtrend like a good walking-dead dollar is supposed to do?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

you're a funny guy. you obsess over these up and down moves even though the pros all say pick a bet and stick with it... soros, rogers, buffett... anyone who has ever made real money. famous traders like jesse livermore got rich, poor, rich, poor. trick is if you are a trader is not run out of gas when you're poor.

if you're going to trade, figure there is another guy on the other side trying to take your money. ask yourself, are you smarter?

i know i'm not. so i pick a macro trend and ride it. that's why i'm here.

jesse's full of wisdom...

As I said this issue of trading is apparently way beyond your abilities to grasp. My aim is to make as much money everyday as I can. I certainly don't achieve that, but for the moment I am and have been achieving it and whether it is luck, genius, or idiocy, I could not be doing better by having not traded in and out of metals over the last three years and well as other issues to attempt to capture moves. My drawdown is 0.00%

What is yours?

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

As I said this issue of trading is apparently way beyond your abilities to grasp. My aim is to make as much money everyday as I can. I certainly don't achieve that, but for the moment I am and have been achieving it and whether it is luck, genius, or idiocy, I could not be doing better by having not traded in and out of metals over the last three years and well as other issues to attempt to capture moves. My drawdown is 0.00%

What is yours?

let's make sure we have our definitions straight here before i answer.

say i started with $100k in 1995... figure proportions. its more than $100k in reality but i'm not into broadcasting my net worth on the net. rode the bubble up and got out in 2000 on itulip's call with $230k march 2000.

didn't do anything but sit in cash until 2001, then bought gold & silver.

haven't done shit since.

never lost a dime, i'd say i'm up 300% at least on the metals on am up 230% on the tech... total up 530% since 1999.

what do you mean by 'drawdown'? what i missed not selling gold at $1000?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Anybody else got a call on whether the USD busts out over 80 here? Or you all figure it's a slam-dunk that it's going to "behave" and resume it's downtrend like a good walking-dead dollar is supposed to do?

Luke, despite your placing this thread in the rumor mill, it has turned into a decent thread.

I think most people are sheeple on the dollar and many other things. Waiting to be told what to do. I know I am prone to that myself, but even in old age occasionally I can come up with an independent action.

However the dollar moves, it will not be because of any consensus that might arrive here, if anything any consensus here would probably represent excellent opinion upon which to act contrarily.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Luke, despite your placing this thread in the rumor mill, it has turned into a decent thread.

I think most people are sheeple on the dollar and many other things. Waiting to be told what to do. I know I am prone to that myself, but even in old age occasionally I can come up with an independent action.

However the dollar moves, it will not be because of any consensus that might arrive here, if anything any consensus here would probably represent excellent opinion upon which to act contrarily.

there's a whole thread here on that topic... Too many dollar bears?

maybe reread it?

As a contrarian, the near unanimity of expectations of the dollar's decline is emotionally bothersome. However, the significance of the crowd's agreement on the dollar's decline depends on where we are in the cycle.

Back in 1998 when we first started to track the decline of the dollar on iTulip during stock bubble boom times, dollar negativity was uncommon, as you'd expect. The US economy was flying high. The government ran a fiscal surplus, the stock market was high, inflation was low, and so on. The iTulip 2001 gold call was based on the expectation that dollar depreciation was going to be part of the US economy reflation program. Finally, after years of dollar depreciation since then, popular sentiment has turned against the dollar.

The crowd gets on board after a trend is observable, and the crowd extrapolates the trend into the infinite future. The dollar trend they are on board with is the gradual decline. The crowd does not expect a dollar crash. So the question is, will the slow depreciation trend continue, accelerate, or reverse?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

let's make sure we have our definitions straight here before i answer.

say i started with $100k in 1995... figure proportions. its more than $100k in reality but i'm not into broadcasting my net worth on the net. rode the bubble up and got out in 2000 on itulip's call with $230k march 2000.

didn't do anything but sit in cash until 2001, then bought gold & silver.

haven't done shit since.

never lost a dime, i'd say i'm up 300% at least on the metals on am up 230% on the tech... total up 530% since 1999.

what do you mean by 'drawdown'? what i missed not selling gold at $1000?

Don't feel badly, neither did I know what drawdrawn was before I joined iTulip. Take your highest attained gain and take your present value and subtract the present value from the highest gain. The difference is the loss, e.g. 10-7.5= 2.5 The 2.5 is an approximation I have made for those who held gold and silver to the top and still have not sold. Divided 2.5 by 10 and you have a 25% drawn down. This says where you are now.

Where you are now is what counts because it can be determined. Where you may be in 10 years is useless until you get there and see what you have. Hopefully more than dashed dreams.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Don't feel badly, neither did I know what drawdrawn was before I joined iTulip. Take your highest attained gain and take your present value and subtract the present value from the highest gain. The difference is the loss, e.g. 10-7.5= 2.5 The 2.5 is an approximation I have made for those who held gold and silver to the top and still have not sold. Divided 2.5 by 10 and you have a 25% drawn down. This says where you are now.

Where you are now is what counts because it can be determined. Where you may be in 10 years is useless until you get there and see what you have. Hopefully more than dashed dreams.

wait a minute... doesn't it depend on where you started counting? i seem to recall you're saying you had a big drawdown after the tech bubble busted?

counting unrealized gains and losses as realized gains and losses strikes me as a dubious measure. let's try this.

i'm up 530% since 1999. you?