gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[Guest]

Got my new advisory's call half an hour ago. Gold "likely" to go to $650, silver to $9.80. Coming up soon. Hope he's wrong but that's what I got served up to me tonight. Ugh.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Got my new advisory's call half an hour ago. Gold "likely" to go to $650, silver to $9.80. Coming up soon. Hope he's wrong but that's what I got served up to me tonight. Ugh.

BY WHEN ?

Edit: Luke, you continue to strike me as one of the strangest dudes who contributes here. What you posted is no rumor, it is the opinion of someone, assuming you are a truth-teller most of the time. However, as you have chosen to "share" your information with the community makes it useless.

David Bensimon, an Elliot wave counter and Fibonaccist (I hope that is a word) suggested in July that gold would decrease to 732 by April or May of next year, I forget which. He also suggested it would bounce around at 850 and 790 before its projected low. He seems wrong on the 850 resistance level in that gold blew right threw that. Whether anyone wishes to make use of this information is up to them, but the projection can be documented.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Got my new advisory's call half an hour ago. Gold "likely" to go to $650, silver to $9.80. Coming up soon. Hope he's wrong but that's what I got served up to me tonight. Ugh.

how much you spending our your gold guru, luke? did he call you 8/13 when gold was $844 and let you know to expect the hair raising price crash to stop at $780? not a popular call at the time.

akrowne Senior iTuliper

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 160

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

---

If gold gets to $780, that will be something else... because $780 is just about the marginal cost of production at this point. Spot silver is arguably under its marginal cost of production (in the $17s).

I am buying!

still holding.



seriously, what was he saying then? sometimes these guys come out with a lower number later just to sound conservative but they don't really know what they're talking about.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Most of these gold clowns have no understanding at all of the FX, BoP, and central banking that drive the gold price.

If you don't understand FX at least a bit, you should not be in gold, period.

[Slimprofits]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

FYI,

Robin Griffiths, Technical Strategist, Cazenove Capital Management:

- gold bottom is $750
- if you want to buy more, do it ASAP, too tough to time the bottom perfectly (last night at 10:40 PST on CNBC)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=805901852

I can't get the thing to play at this moment, so not sure if this (below) is a reference to that apperance or one made earlier in the week on CNBC, but no earlier than that for sure.

"Robin Griffiths, technical strategist from Cazenove Capital told CNBC this week he expects the normal downtrend associated with a bear trend will resume in September or October as people return from the summer vacation season. He expects another big down leg in that period."

source

Who?

Robin Griffiths joined Phillips & Drew in 1966, having taken a degree in Economics at Nottingham University. He went on to be a partner at WI Carr, the first British stock broker to have offices in Hong Kong and Tokyo. Part of this firm was acquired by Grieveson Grant, with whom Robin enjoyed a stay in Japan. In 1986 Robin joined James Capel, which was already owned by HSBC.

Having left HSBC Investment Bank in 2002, Robin then joined Rathbones as Head of Global Investment Strategy, where he stayed until 2008. He is currently the Technical Strategist for Cazenove Capital and manages the Worldwide Absolute Return hedge fund.

Robin has been a regular on CNN, CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg TV. He is a committee member and former chairman of the international Federation of Technical Analysts, and former chairman, now fellow, of the British Society of Technical Analysts.

source

Griffiths, Cazenove CEO Andrew Ross told Financial News “is a legend in the industry."

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Phirang -

Not really allowed to post the specific trades but I have a list of recent sell instructions here across a range of currencies and commodities that would stand the hairs up on the back of your neck. Every last one called very close to it's top - all logged right in the recent issues. Will try to post a dozen of these in "paraphrase" later this week.

When you look them up, you'll be extremely skeptical that someone actually issued this string of sells - yet it's all recorded in the consecutive alerts.

This person is calling gold and silver down to these numbers. He's also calling 16000 DOW within a *short period of time* (I imagine Jim Nickerson will be grubbing all around this mention trying to root up some freeby goodies). He's calling for the USD to bust out "far higher" than the most informed observers are willing to project.

I have no problem with occasionally being flat wrong. Does anyone else here have a problem with every once in a while being just plain wrong? Happens to me a lot!

[jk]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

so luke, do you believe this call enough to sell a big chunk of your pm's to be able to buy back at reduced prices? yes, it's hard to catch a bottom, but gold is around 800 at the moment, which is quite a distance from 650, and silver's over 13 when - so someone says - you'll soon be able to buy under 10. so, you selling?

[Guest]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Absolutely not selling anything JK. I don't see how that would follow from my observations above, which merely reaffirmed that this person is making some calls which at very least require people with a non-dogmatic view about these trends to sit up and pay attention.

For your info, I'm actually one of the people who has been most exposed to this savage correction, ans I hold a very large position in silver bullion. I've seen a massive reduction in my net worth, but it's a theoretical reduction only, as I am *not selling* or handing my holdings over to any ready buyers of the physical silver.

My basis was constructed from 1/3 holdings purchased at $7.00 per ounce, 1/3 purchased at $12.00 per ounce and another third (this part with less good judgement) purchased at $17.00 per ounce. I have an averaged $12.00 basis in what is admittedly a rather overweight silver holding, and I see an excellent chance of a net double to $24.00 in two to three years. If I'm wrong, the worst that occurs is that it's extended out to five to six years, or seven or ten years. This is what is referred to as investing on a macro trend, with "trycicle wheels on". There is no "wrong" in this strategy, there is only "strategy completes a little behind schedule"

Global growth in the next 20 years will be above trend, or if not, it's due to the energy crunch, which is highly inflationary anyway. Either way, the story is commodity inflation, not commodity deflation at the global level.

Silver is a hybrid investment: global GDP growth / minerals depletion / monetary dysfunction story. Silver's monetary linkage to gold is only one part of it. The part of it's story that will snooker the physical availability is the confluence of the investment demand, with it's industrial utility, which confers to it it's premier position within a commodity bull market. You can buy Jim Roger's vision, or you can dump Jim Rogers vision. Everyone has to make their own macro call on that.

Gold is only a monetary dysfunction story.

Holding silver bullion across the next five to ten years (and this is a global thesis, not just an American one) is a conservative investment within any commodity bull market, because it is a hybrid of both commodity and monetary assets, which are converging upon each other like a set of pincers. Gold does not have this edge. I will be looking carefully at scaling a significant chunk of this position out into a managed account with this adviser next February, but I am completely fluid on that part. I will take my time making a decision about that in the next few months.

If the dollar keeps going up past 80 the "gold as anti-dollar" trend would eventually break, and gold / silver would begin to drift upwards further alongside an apparently rising USD. The dollar rise (if it even occurs, I am only relating what I've read) would of course have to be an 'optical illusion", brought about by the illusion of foreign currency strength vs. the USD having dissipated. As the global vendor-financing of the US shrivels and foreign markets struggle through transitions away from US as prime consumer, all currencies weaken. As you noted yourself, that point would kick off the "race to the bottom" among all currencies, with the dollar looking stronger all through that portion of the decline. Those selling gold and silver into apparent dollar strength will have gotten fooled. But first we have to have this meat-grinder for the inflation hedges.

Some people would be in a quivering, jellified state of fear of a net 40% drawdown of their entire net worth. I'm quite distressed by the short term event in price, but I'm still sitting here with a solid core of comfort in the pit of my stomach, anticipating a changed life within probably at very latest 8 years (I'm patient). I would not have nearly this solid a feeling were I in paper silver and paper gold, or worse, in gold or silver stocks. Glad I understood that much and configured myself to withstand a bombshell. I've got the "anti-shrapnel sandbags" piled high up around my position.

This is my position. I like to stand in one place for a good while and let the big trend hand me my profits without chasing them. If I am wrong, my worst penalty will be to wait for eight to ten, rather than four years beyond now, for the same payoff. Just because I stare at the gruesome bottom in the PM's in fascination, should not lead you to infer that those doing so are acting stupidly. Right now, the nervous nellies are looking smart. Across a full decade, the nervous nellies will have lost the race.

so luke, do you believe this call enough to sell a big chunk of your pm's to be able to buy back at reduced prices? yes, it's hard to catch a bottom, but gold is around 800 at the moment, which is quite a distance from 650, and silver's over 13 when - so someone says - you'll soon be able to buy under 10. so, you selling?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Absolutely not selling anything JK. I don't see how that would follow from my observations above, which merely reaffirmed that this person is making some calls which at very least require people with a non-dogmatic view about these trends to sit up and pay attention.

For your info, I'm actually one of the people who has been most exposed to this savage correction, ans I hold a very large position in silver bullion. I've seen a massive reduction in my net worth, but it's a theoretical reduction only, as I am *not selling* or handing my holdings over to any ready buyers of the physical silver.

My basis was constructed from 1/3 holdings purchased at $7.00 per ounce, 1/3 purchased at $12.00 per ounce and another third (this part with less good judgement) purchased at $17.00 per ounce. I have an averaged $12.00 basis in what is admittedly a rather overweight silver holding, and I see an excellent chance of a net double to $24.00 in two to three years. If I'm wrong, the worst that occurs is that it's extended out to five to six years, or seven or ten years. This is what is referred to as investing on a macro trend, with "trycicle wheels on". There is no "wrong" in this strategy, there is only "strategy completes a little behind schedule"

Global growth in the next 20 years will be above trend, or if not, it's due to the energy crunch, which is highly inflationary anyway. Either way, the story is commodity inflation, not commodity deflation at the global level.

Silver is a hybrid investment: global GDP growth / minerals depletion / monetary dysfunction story. Silver's monetary linkage to gold is only one part of it. The part of it's story that will snooker the physical availability is the confluence of the investment demand, with it's industrial utility, which confers to it it's premier position within a commodity bull market. You can buy Jim Roger's vision, or you can dump Jim Rogers vision. Everyone has to make their own macro call on that.

Gold is only a monetary dysfunction story.

Holding silver bullion across the next five to ten years (and this is a global thesis, not just an American one) is a conservative investment within any commodity bull market, because it is a hybrid of both commodity and monetary assets, which are converging upon each other like a set of pincers. Gold does not have this edge. I will be looking carefully at scaling a significant chunk of this position out into a managed account with this adviser next February, but I am completely fluid on that part. I will take my time making a decision about that in the next few months.

If the dollar keeps going up past 80 the "gold as anti-dollar" trend would eventually break, and gold / silver would begin to drift upwards further alongside an apparently rising USD. The dollar rise (if it even occurs, I am only relating what I've read) would of course have to be an 'optical illusion", brought about by the illusion of foreign currency strength vs. the USD having dissipated. As the global vendor-financing of the US shrivels and foreign markets struggle through transitions away from US as prime consumer, all currencies weaken. As you noted yourself, that point would kick off the "race to the bottom" among all currencies, with the dollar looking stronger all through that portion of the decline. Those selling gold and silver into apparent dollar strength will have gotten fooled. But first we have to have this meat-grinder for the inflation hedges.

Some people would be in a quivering, jellified state of fear of a net 40% drawdown of their entire net worth. I'm quite distressed by the short term event in price, but I'm still sitting here with a solid core of comfort in the pit of my stomach, anticipating a changed life within probably at very latest 8 years (I'm patient). I would not have nearly this solid a feeling were I in paper silver and paper gold, or worse, in gold or silver stocks. Glad I understood that much and configured myself to withstand a bombshell. I've got the "anti-shrapnel sandbags" piled high up around my position.

This is my position. I like to stand in one place for a good while and let the big trend hand me my profits without chasing them. If I am wrong, my worst penalty will be to wait for eight to ten, rather than four years beyond now, for the same payoff. Just because I stare at the gruesome bottom in the PM's in fascination, should not lead you to infer that those doing so are acting stupidly. Right now, the nervous nellies are looking smart. Across a full decade, the nervous nellies will have lost the race.

Luke you could be correct in your reasoning above, and for your sake I hope you are.

You detract from the rationalization of your stance by impugning those (your label: "nervous nellies") who might have had the lack of dogmatism, positioning, foresight, anticipation, cojones to trade out of what could be the first stage of the drowndraft in PM's that might have temporarily stopped Friday. From 7/15/08 highs, I believe GLD lost 19.3%, SLV lost 32.9% and spot gold lost 20%, and spot silver lost 33.9% (the last two figures from stockcharts.com highs on 7/15 to close on 8/15).

I doubt anyone here traded out of those positions at the highs, but if they did or traded out even close to those highs, then a more appropriate label would be "geniuses" as opposed to anything approaching your sour grapes assignment of "nervous nellies." Even if they are not in the genius category, I think you should have a bit more charitable opinion of them. If they were "dumb" (meaning "smart") enough to trade out of the positions, it might be possible that they will be truly smart enough to buy back at some point, way lower than where the market closed today. Then if you prove correct in your assessments of whatever your pundits predict, those "nervous nellies" will probably rack up more gains than you did because of your dogmatism, lack of positioning, lack of foresight, lack of anticipation, or having NO cojones.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

This discussion is completely useless without an FX considerations... then again, I find technical analysis as hateful as the Fourier Transform beautiful.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

This discussion is completely useless without an FX considerations... then again, I find technical analysis as hateful as the Fourier Transform beautiful.

phirang-spook,

For some reason I am in a particularly foul mood today, but I also find I have time to rattle your cage, despite my notion that doing so will prove useless.

I am not very smart, and a lot of your posts seem to suggest that you know a lot about something, though exactly what, I am yet to discern.

Were it to be correct that you do actually have some insights that most of us here probably do not have, if you see any personal gain from expending the time and typing energy to go into them a bit deeper, then you might someday evolve as a worthwhile contributor here.

If the discussion here is completely useless without foreign exchange (I assume FX means "foreign exchange") considerations, why don't you be so kind as to expand on that for me and perhaps a few others.

If this is beneath your dignity, then fine.

[phirang]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

phirang-spook,

For some reason I am in a particularly foul mood today, but I also find I have time to rattle your cage, despite my notion that doing so will prove useless.

I am not very smart, and a lot of your posts seem to suggest that you know a lot about something, though exactly what, I am yet to discern.

Were it to be correct that you do actually have some insights that most of us here probably do not have, if you see any personal gain from expending the time and typing energy to go into them a bit deeper, then you might someday evolve as a worthwhile contributor here.

If the discussion here is completely useless without foreign exchange (I assume FX means "foreign exchange") considerations, why don't you be so kind as to expand on that for me and perhaps a few others.

If this is beneath your dignity, then fine.

"Technical analysis" is, in my opinion (and they're like assholes: eveyrone has one), a very poor attempt at imposing naive pattern-recognition on fat-tailed, stochastic dynamic systems. Funds like RenTech, which make 30-40% yoy using quant methods, literally create their own methods, but it doesn't entail "head-and-shoulders"(and definitely not VaR). If people are serious about technical trading, they should visit www.wilmott.com and speak with the quants there.

By FX, I mean foreign-exchange, namely recognizing the macro and micro economic effects on currencies. This entails understanding the difference between the BoJ, PBoC, ECB, BoE, and Fed. If Trichet says, "non!" to an increase in interest rates and the US Fed jawbones static or higher FFR, then one should not be surprised to see USD rally at the expense of the euro. Since central banks share data when it suits them, and since a high euro was strangling EU exports and a weak dollar spooking the US and PPT, then it makes even more sense that the ESF would do what it did knowing full-well what Trichet had in mind.

Any so-called "gold-analyst" who doesn't understand(or, in my case, have a limited yet non-zero understanding) of the relationship between the various central banks, the major drivers of the economies over which they've seignority, and the politics associated amongst and within them, is a hack.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

"Technical analysis" is, in my opinion (and they're like assholes: eveyrone has one), a very poor attempt at imposing naive pattern-recognition on fat-tailed, stochastic dynamic systems. Funds like RenTech, which make 30-40% yoy using quant methods, literally create their own methods, but it doesn't entail "head-and-shoulders"(and definitely not VaR). If people are serious about technical trading, they should visit www.wilmott.com and speak with the quants there.

By FX, I mean foreign-exchange, namely recognizing the macro and micro economic effects on currencies. This entails understanding the difference between the BoJ, PBoC, ECB, BoE, and Fed. If Trichet says, "non!" to an increase in interest rates and the US Fed jawbones static or higher FFR, then one should not be surprised to see USD rally at the expense of the euro. Since central banks share data when it suits them, and since a high euro was strangling EU exports and a weak dollar spooking the US and PPT, then it makes even more sense that the ESF would do what it did knowing full-well what Trichet had in mind.

Any so-called "gold-analyst" who doesn't understand(or, in my case, have a limited yet non-zero understanding) of the relationship between the various central banks, the major drivers of the economies over which they've seignority, and the politics associated amongst and within them, is a hack.

Thanks, phirang-spook, that at least lets some of know to what you may be alluding.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

Please don't give your fellow members a hard time because they choose anonymity. We have heads of financial firms and other corporations, and people in relatively high positions in government, here. I'm sure you can understand why many choose to remain anonymous, and we guarantee that members' privacy it will not be violated by iTulip.

Let's see, I am a hedge fund runner, CT. Interests: economics, sailing
Hobbies: music, painting.

Who is this mystery contributor? Impossible to know.

Economist, retired; interests: misdirection; hobbies: swinet. Who am I?
This one is easy. Only Alan Greenspan plays the swinet. What's a swinet? Stretch a rubber band across a hog's ass and blow on it.

I've not ever asked exactly who anybody is? People can improve their credibility by choosing to put a bit about themselves in their bio's. Those who chose not to, are spooks, and readers should tread lightly on spook's making recommendations, which a good many here do.

I wish everyone here had management experience, hiring and, unfortunately, occasionally firing people over time. What one learns, usually the hard way, is that when you are trying to learn who someone is and how they are going to behave, what they say is of little importance, and a resume is of little more use than an indication of areas of competence. That's to help you not hire a sales person with no sales experience, or if you do – and I have, with great success (they didn't know they were sales people, but I did) – you're doing it on purpose. A record of competence is no guarantee that they will be competent in the future, however, because while they may now have the skill from experience they may for various reasons have lost the motivation to apply it.

The truth of the matter is that we learn about each other here just as in the real world, by observing behavior over time. That's who the "real" Jim and phirang and everyone else here is at iTulip.

The real Jim is a pain in the ass. Whoever the real phirang-spook is, is yet to be determined based on his choice for brevity and initalisms, the use of which is presumptious in a crowd of mostly lay investors. I'm not intent on beating on phirang-spook, I would just like to be able to get the most out of what anyone knows, and unfortunately I think that may require more than a line of comment. If you wish to reject my contention on that consider how long EJ's contributions are, not to even mention Lukester's.

While I'm here, taking a quick break from the book writing, I've received a few PMs and emails regarding my call of $780 for gold's bottoming in the recent price crash. The questions can be summed up as, "How'd you do it?"

No one is going to like the answer, probably Jim least of all. No, no wave counting or other charting magic – common knowledge here I don't believe in it. The answer is, and I'm being brutally honest here, I just know.

Eric, that answer doesn't bother me in the least. Anyone putting up such an answer results in it having no meaning to me. No meaning>> no way to even consider my using it for an actionable trade. I hope it is correct.

Thanks.

[metalman]

Re: gold to $650, silver to $9.80

[quote=Jim Nickerson;44179]Let's see, I am a hedge fund runner, CT. Interests: economics, sailing
Hobbies: music, painting.

Who is this mystery contributor? Impossible to know.

Economist, retired; interests: misdirection; hobbies: swinet. Who am I?
This one is easy. Only Alan Greenspan plays the swinet. What's a swinet? Stretch a rubber band across a hogs ass and blow on it.

I've not ever asked exactly who anybody is? People can improve their credibility by choosing to put a bit about themselves in their bio's. Those who chose not to, are spooks, and readers should tread lightly on spook's making recommendations, which a good many here do.

I wish everyone here had management experience, hiring and, unfortunately, occasionally firing people over time. What one learns, usually the hard way, is that when you are trying to learn who someone is and how they are going to behave, what they say is of little importance, and a resume is of little more use than an indication of areas of competence. That's to help you not hire a sales person with no sales experience, or if you do – and I have, with great success (they didn't know they were sales people, but I did) – you're doing it on purpose. A record of competence is no guarantee that they will be competent in the future, however, because while they may now have the skill from experience they may for various reasons have lost the motivation to apply it.

The truth of the matter is that we learn about each other here just as in the real world, by observing behavior over time. That's who the "real" Jim and phirang and everyone else here is at iTulip.[/quote}

The real Jim is a pain in the ass. Whoever the real phirang-spook is, is yet to be determined based on his choice for brevity and initalisms, the use of which is presumptious in a crowd of mostly lay investors. I'm not intent on beating on phirang-spook, I would just like to be able to get the most out of what anyone knows, and unfortunately I think that may require more than a line of comment. If you wish to reject my contention on that consider how long EJ's contributions are, not to even mention Lukester.

Eric, that answer doesn't bother me in the least. Anyone putting up such an answer results in it having no meaning to me. No meaning>> no way to even consider my using it for an actionable trade. I hope it is correct.

Thanks.

are you supposed to be more worth reading on the subjects of economics and finance because we know your name and that you're a dentist?

i'd rather hear what phirang has to say because at least he's a pro, as anyone can tell by reading what he says, never mind his bio and who cares if that isn't his real name.

but it's worse than that. thing is, jim, folks will get put off by you calling members 'spooks' and making fun of members' bios... but they won't complain they'll just leave and go to a more civilized forum where the cranky old men don't rule the roost.

wish fred would come back and enforce the old mutual respect rules. calling people spooks and discrediting them because they don't want to/can't say who they are is disrespectful, of you ask me.