How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

[rj1]

I guess this can qualify as a rumor, although it's more just how good your foresight is or how you think things will come to pass. Keeping in mind the main type of news on this site. In other words, I don't care who wins the World Series or if the U.S. will warn Iran for the millionth time on their nuke program. More based on currencies, prices, the general economic outlook in the U.S. and abroad, etc.

[touchring]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

I guess this can qualify as a rumor, although it's more just how good your foresight is or how you think things will come to pass. Keeping in mind the main type of news on this site. In other words, I don't care who wins the World Series or if the U.S. will warn Iran for the millionth time on their nuke program. More based on currencies, prices, the general economic outlook in the U.S. and abroad, etc.

If there's no Iran war before the presidential elections, Obama will be the president in 2009. What kind of policies will he implement?

[phirang]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

obama will implement inflationary deficit spending to kickstart the economy per EJ's prediction. Emphasis will be on greentech and maybe infrastructure.

Inflation will remain high because, well, the alternative is we become a nation of renters...

[Mega]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

1ST thing he needs to do is sit down with the American people and EXPLAIN just HOW BAD things are............and WHO caused them!

Mike

[phirang]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

if he did that, hed upset those who put him in power.

obama was a nobody until he sold himself cheaply to the oligarchs.

[algerwetmore]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

I think that the next bubble to burst is the high cost of health care!
My sister works for Genesys, a healthcare conglomerate in Flint, Mich. The parent company that owns Genesys, is headquartered in Missouri.
The parent company, from a right-to-work state, is asking for a 25% hourly wage cut of the unionized employees. My sister, who is a non-union
human-resources employee, has worked over 20 years there. She was recently told by upper management that when she retires, her health care insurance plan will be dropped.
Of course, the cardiologist earns $675 k and his/her salary is non-negotiable. I don't need to tell you that parts of Flint already function like a third world country. A very vast disparity between the haves and the have-nots.

[rj1]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

I'm not talking about what you think needs to happen. Let's stay in reality here with the full knowledge that not all politicians are forthcoming and some are required to say certain things by their stakeholders. This is a "what you think will happen in a year's time".

[Judas]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

My feeble guesses:



What Phirang said to start, deficit spending and lots of inflation.

Lots of poorly managed, budget overunning projects in infrastructure farmed out to crony companies all over the country.

A series of mini-bubbles– instead of one large bubble like the tech boom or the housing boom, you will see sector (and subsector) bubbles in things like "green" technology, projects to facilitate less/more affordable commuting, certain farming sectors, etc.

MASSIVE increases in local and state taxation through taxes but moreso through fees, surcharges, etc. Local governments are still in the business of serving their public sector unions first, and a year from now will still be fighting to keep the bloat going as long as possible.

The Fed will have tried to raise rates, maybe a quarter point in a lackluster bluff, but then drops it down to 1% and it stays.

After the large number of bank failures there will be a large consolidation in the banking industry, with the big (and connected) fish eating up the little fish.

The new oil bourses in Russia, Iran, etc. will be running full steam, oil in dollars is crazy expensive but stabilizing in other currencies.

Dollars will be flowing back into the US with alarming speed. Lots of foreign ownership of US assets/companies.

Capital flight as new laws are put in place to get those pesky speculators, rich people, etc.

The move of Halliburton is just the opening shot in seeing companies move their headquarters overseas.

Increase of black and gray market activity due to the dollar, so draconian financial reporting laws will start being put into place.

Trade war activity. Tariffs are just the beginning- things like Canada and where its oil goes could be major points of contention.




Any of this making sense?

[algerwetmore]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

Yes, it is making sense. What types of capital controls do you envision?
The rumor I heard is that eventually everyone having an 401K will be forced to purchase GSE'S as part of their 401K. In effect, we are the buyers of last resort, not the FED.

[Judas]

Re: How do you think the World will look (financially) on June 17,2009?

Yes, it is making sense. What types of capital controls do you envision?

Maybe we'll see a futile attempt to punish capital outflows and companies which move abroad. These never really work. I imagine the Justice (sic) Department will be used as an indirect form of capital outflow control– ask the former Qwest CEO who didn't "play ball"...

The more interesting battles may be related to capital inflows. All those dollars will be looking to come home, but foreign ownership of American assets is politically sensitive. On the one side you will have powerful industries (especially banking) fighting to get those monies, and on the other hand politicians and interest groups freaking out. Imagine what will happen when the "Russkies" start looking for chunks of the US to buy up with all those greenbacks now that they have their own oil bourse and are pushing for the ruble to take up a more prominent reserver currency status... people here in the US will be FREAKING...

The rumor I heard is that eventually everyone having an 401K will be forced to purchase GSE'S as part of their 401K. In effect, we are the buyers of last resort, not the FED.

The bastards.

Moves like that might drive money from the 401K system and be counterproductive.