Why is gold NOT going up?

[Guest]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Sorry Jtabeb, call me thick. What's the point? The metal just got through running up 40-50%. What's the question here? Mega capitalises words regularly in his posts for all sorts of reasons, so you are probably the one reading more into this than is actually there.

OK, so what if "the evil cartel" drives the gold price down regularly. Is this some sort of ground breaking story here? It's been beaten to death in countless posts for years. The stuff went up a lot recently. Not enough for some, I guess. Now it's got to sit around and bore people to death for another six months, a year, 18 months or whatever. "Why gold may may or may not be going up is a non-story". Tell me what I'm missing that's a revelation here?

And what's this 'hitting below the belt' stuff? Huh? This is just a discussion about whether the gold price has been hashed out enough as a topic. If it were a piece of laundry it would be threadbare and colorless by now.

[jtabeb]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Sorry Jtabeb, call me thick. What's the point? The metal just got through running up 40-50%. What's the question here? Mega capitalises words regularly in his posts for all sorts of reasons, so you are probably the one reading more into this than is actually there.

OK, so what if "the evil cartel" drives the gold price down regularly. Is this some sort of ground breaking story here? It's been beaten to death in countless posts for years. The stuff went up a lot recently. Not enough for some, I guess. Now it's got to sit around and bore people to death for another six months, a year, 18 months or whatever. "Why gold may may or may not be going up is a non-story". Tell me what I'm missing that's a revelation here?

And what's this 'hitting below the belt' stuff? Huh? This is just a discussion about whether the gold price has been hashed out enough as a topic. If it were a piece of laundry it would be threadbare and colorless by now.

Just trying to determine what I'm up against like the rest of you. If I learn something and you do too great. If not, I agree we shouldn't waste our spit. But sometimes you gotta use some spit to find out if you would be wasting it in the first place.

[Guest]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

You saw his point but just drove right by and went way past it.

What's Mega's point here Jtabeb? Can't figure out what it is, other than voicing some disappointment at the fact that Gold's price is not going up any more.

[ No worries Jtabeb. I'm fine with Miker posting whatever he wants, and much appreciate all of your posts also. ]

[phirang]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

I've been hearing that the gold souks in UAE have been very active, and that most gold is sold on the blackmarket there...

As for inflation, it's damn simple: the banks, since they practice fractional reserve banking, can ill afford asset deflation. The US gov will become the backstop for the mortgages at risk, and as a result, the dollar will depreciate accordingly with this added liability factored into the US budget npv.

Of course, this makes SS much cheaper to pay in the future, especially since the purchasing power of SS payments isn't assured, per greenspan:rolleyes:.

Grover Norquist is lovin' it!

[Aerius]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

I’m typically anti-conspiracy theory, but it may be manipulation. There appears to be a strong seller at $950 and apparently it broke some major technical rule (as per Dennis Gartman); lower and lower RSI or something.

He has been long gold and did a panic sell on his entire position today.

[*T*]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Chill, Winston. Gold is going up fast. Just not in a straight line.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Exactly, T,

Investor psychology is now fixed on other sectors, i.e energy, alternate energy, agriculture, tech, steel (which is an infrastructure play), etc, When sentiment in those sectors becomes overly optimistic and overbought, that will be your signal to short them and return long to PM's

By the way, I am curious. Why would a gold cartel work to keep the price of their product low? Like OPEC, isn't in their best interest to drive prices higher?

[JoeSixpack]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

(P.S. I've owned gold for 5 years and I asked the same freaking question)

Ok i actually thought it WAS a joke or rather a rant.
The last correction lasted 15 MONTHS.

I dont even post a chart here because if you own gold you know it.

Gold has hit a technical target which i also saw on Sinclair (1026-1040). Perfect and kudos. Unfortunately i was on vacation and could not short it.

EVEN Sinclair who is the BIGGEST gold bug on earth said that Gold should better NOT challenge these levels too soon or it will be sold hard.
From the same analysis a quick glance gives conservative buy entries at 840 and 795 area, but the correction might already be over (885) if it moves sideways a while.

If you own it from much cheaper levels, just hold it.

Sheesh.

[phirang]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

GATA strives to let gold rip... all the members are gold fund managers or miners

[WDCRob]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

How in the hell can you argue gold isn't going up? It's risen at an annualized rate of ~17% since the start of the year.

ETA: I see others raised the same point ahead of me. Note to self: read whole thread before posting.

[vcif]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Mike,

If you think gold is undervalued now, then buy more!!! I would love to see it get knocked down ($850) and I have been saving for such an opportunity.

Your question raises another point. Are you invested in gold as a store of value and inflation hedge or as a speculative investment?

If there is a speculative aspect to your purchase, then undervalued gold is your friend, especially- so make nice.

vin

[krakknisse]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Just my $0.02. Asking why gold is not going up is an interesting question to ask (though I'm not sure it belongs in news). I've previously posted a "hold my hand" post when gold fell. No longer.

This is definitely a correction. Absolutely nothing has changed in the fundamentals. There is absolutely no way that the Fed could get away with a meaningful raising of US interest rates. Sure, they could raise a quarter, or a half point to spook the market. But to counter the monetary beast that they've unleashed, they'd have to push it to at least 7% (which used to be a normal interest rate) and that would kill homeowners and businesses. But no way they could do a real Volker. Just do the math yourself. CPI-U was 12.5% in 1980, declining to 8% after that or less which makes the real Volker interest rate from 5% to 15%. The real interest rate would have to increase to 10% at least to be anywhere near Volkers sting.


Maybe I and other late entrants bought in a little late - so we'll have to live with a 20% or 30% fall. Just look at the chart - if you bought in on the May 2006 top it would have taken you 18 months to start to see a profit again, and the fall was between 20% and 30%.

But gold is still an excellent insurance against real monetary disasters. If the ITulip thesis is correct, we will see significant price inflation to "get out" (save the bankers) of this recession, but not hyperinflation. But nobody really knows how this will pan out. It could well get worse. Eating a potential 30% loss - on paper - and near certainty that it will get back up - still gives you the best monetary insurance that fiat money can buy. There is a thin veneer of trust in fiat money, and this crisis will slowly erode that. Even societal trust will be worn down. And anything politicians do to "fix it" will erode that limited reserve of trust - there is no way to fix it short of a miracle happening (Ron Paul - are you listening?) Let's hope that that veneer of trust is not worn down. Sooner or later it will, but I hope not in my lifetime.

Speak to me again in a year or two. I may be a sucker J6P. But at least gold is a safer bet. Any other new gold entrants start to like the feeling of fondling your stack (and I don't mean the female variety) ?



- Non teneas aurum totum quod splendet ut aurum

[WDCRob]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

But gold is still an excellent insurance against real monetary disasters. If the ITulip thesis is correct, we will see significant price inflation to "get out" (save the bankers) of this recession, but not hyperinflation. But nobody really knows how this will pan out. It could well get worse. Eating a potential 30% loss - on paper - and near certainty that it will get back up - still gives you the best monetary insurance that fiat money can buy. There is a thin veneer of trust in fiat money, and this crisis will slowly erode that.

Well said K.

I finally bought around $875 earlier this year and I find that I worry much less about what's happening now. Watching it skyrocket to $1000+ was good fun, but I haven't given it a second thought on the way down. And if it goes much lower I'll probably buy some more.

I hadn't factored in the security blanket function feature of metals when I was planning, but it's definitely there (for me at least) and I doubt I ever sell all of it now.

[medved]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

Well said JG.

I finally bought around $875 earlier this year and I find that I worry much less about what's happening now. Watching it skyrocket to $1000+ was good fun, but I haven't given it a second thought on the way down. And if it goes much lower I'll probably buy some more.

I hadn't factored in the security blanket function feature of metals when I was planning, but it's definitely there (for me at least) and I doubt I ever sell all of it now.

Same here. I have to make a terrible admission. I was selling gold, silver and some related mining companies, when gold hit $1000 and silver hit $20. So, I guess, I am one of the manipulators. Now I am waiting for the right moment in this "annual takedown" (as Jim Puplava calls it) to buy some of it back. I also wait for most of my sold covered calls to expire worthless.

I guess, if I could time it (for the third time in the last 6 years), so could the professional traders.

Yes, Virginia, there is manipulation in the gold market. Why should it be different from any other? The only thing different is manipulating gold is much easier, than, say, copper. And yes, there is a lot of speculation. So, if you want to reduce pain, learn to speculate.

[rabot10]

Re: Why is gold NOT going up?

What I wanna know is, why aren't I rich yet??? When am I gonna get freakin' rich already? :mad: :confused: :rolleyes:

Just the fact that anyone would be talking to you makes you a rich guy, U have some real issues. But I still Love ya