Gold's Double Top at 1200

[Finster]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

Icm63 suggests the possibility of a double top in gold at 1200 here: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...60145#poststop ...

I spotted the title of this thread with amusement because it recalls the double top we saw at $400 and then the double top at $700 and then the double top at $900 and then $1100...

[dummass]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

I spotted the title of this thread with amusement because it recalls the double top we saw at $400 and then the double top at $700 and then the double top at $900 and then $1100...

You have to admit, the pattern is very similar. We all know what happened in Jan 1980. Perhaps we are not there yet, but one should not be so quick to dismiss the possibility. If we get a moon shot... :eek

[jk]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

You have to admit, the pattern is very similar. We all know what happened in Jan 1980. Perhaps we are not there yet, but one should not be so quick to dismiss the possibility. If we get a moon shot... :eek

the graphs look similar because of manipulation. although both depict a tripling in price, one takes 5 years to achieve that, and the other takes 15 years.

[dummass]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

the graphs look similar because of manipulation. although both depict a tripling in price, one takes 5 years to achieve that, and the other takes 15 years.

Yes, the pattern has taken longer to develop (this time). Does that make it irrelevant to our analysis?

JK, your response seems a bit guarded. Clearly, many of us here, at iTulip, have a large investment in gold. We have been led to believe that we will have advanced notice at the turning point; that we can beat the market when it is time to sell. EJ has certainly made that claim. Are we relying on EJ's analysis for timing this event? As far as I can tell, EJ has never clearly shared his thoughts on how to time this event. Perhaps your aware of something that I have not considered. What should we be watching for? When will we know?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

Yes, the pattern has taken longer to develop (this time). Does that make it irrelevant to our analysis?

JK, your response seems a bit guarded. Clearly, many of us here, at iTulip, have a large investment in gold. We have been led to believe that we will have advanced notice at the turning point; that we can beat the market when it is time to sell. EJ has certainly made that claim. Are we relying on EJ's analysis for timing this event? As far as I can tell, EJ has never clearly shared his thoughts on how to time this event. Perhaps your aware of something that I have not considered. What should we be watching for? When will we know?

I'm sure jk will come forth with his opinion, but here is another. IIRC in the past couple of weeks Hussman suggested the possibility of a 20-30% correction in the price of gold. If I had a million dollar portfolio (and that was the majority of my invested assets) and 30% in gold, then a 30% loss would equate to a 90K loss or 9%. Personally, I prefer to avoid that if I could. I disagree with reliance upon anyone else to make my investment decisions--EJ or any other pundit. I like knowing their opinions, but unless I had a contract with a pundit to trade my account, I wouldn't get stuck on waiting on their advice as to when I should make a buy or sell.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

Considering that someday there probably will be some sort of price correction in gold, here is a chart I ran across a few days ago. http://dshort.com/articles/Kimble/10...D-support.html

If you care to look at that link and blow up the chart, you will see Kimble highlighted the price of GLD on the y-axis to be ~116.39. A break below that would break that trendline going back to late 2008. A break would not in any way dictate that a 5, 10, 20 or 30% correction was in the offing, but it definitely represents a breakdown of the trend, as also would have occurred in March or April of this year only then to see prices go to new nominal highs.

[jk]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

i think the time frame of those charts are a significant difference. it's not just a matter of taking longer to show the same pattern. i think because of the very different timeframes, they are different patterns, not the same pattern.

in the mid '70s gold was cut in half before going on to much higher highs. these are markets, and anything can happen. for me, the issues are twofold: 1. is the long term case for gold still solid? 2. can i time shorter term movements? my answers are yes and no. [respectively]

[dummass]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

for me, the issues are twofold: 1. is the long term case for gold still solid? 2. can i time shorter term movements? my answers are yes and no. [respectively]

That's a curious comment, JK, coming form a guy who involves himself on every gold thread.

(FWIW) I'm not good at timing these thing either, but I do like to try. Perhaps some day, with a little bit of effort and even more experience, I might get better. Who knows?

I've learned to do a lot of things in my life and I didn't start out good at any of them.

[jk]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

That's a curious comment, JK, coming form a guy who involves himself on every gold thread.

(FWIW) I'm not good at timing these thing either, but I do like to try. Perhaps some day, with a little bit of effort and even more experience, I might get better. Who knows?

I've learned to do a lot of things in my life and I didn't start out good at any of them.

i've outsmarted myself too many times in the past to think i can time shorter term movements. i don't try.

if you look at the chart in the '70s, you'll see that gold was cut in half at one point along the way. if you'd had the prescience to get out before the drop, when do you think you would have had the nerve to buy back in?

[dummass]

Re: Gold's Double Top at 1200

Here is a "Double Top" at $640 (Jan 1980), just before going to $850.