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Icm63 suggests the possibility of a double top in gold at 1200 here: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...60145#poststop
Here's the gold chart:
http://http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=gld#chart2:symbol=gld;range=1y;indicator =volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;l ogscale=off
So, what is a double top? Definition found here:
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_top.html
1. Uptrend Preceding Stock Chart
As mentioned previously, the double top is a reversal formation. It begins with prices in an uptrend. Analysts focus on specific characteristics of that uptrend when searching for a valid double top. The trend upwards should be fairly long and healthy. Bulkowski maintains that an investor will want to see prices trending up over the short to intermediate term - approximately 3 to 6 months. Further, he states that "the price trend should not be a retrace in an extended decline but generally has a stair-step appearance. Schabacker confirms this approach, explaining that if the stock has been in a long, healthy uptrend, the double top is more likely to develop into a reversal. If the uptrend is short, the double top may not hold and the uptrend will continue.
2. Time between Tops
Analysts pay close attention to the "size" of the pattern - the duration of the interval between the two tops. Generally, the longer the time between the two tops, the more important the pattern as a good reversal. Schabacker warns investors off of a pattern where only a few days intervene between the two peaks.Analysts suggest that investors should look for patterns where at least one month elapses between the peaks. It is not unusual for a few months to pass between the dates of the two tops. Murphy mentions that these patterns can span several years.
On the other hand, Yager notes that patterns that are too long may be unmanageable, and she looks for tighter, shorter patterns. Yager believes that shorter patterns are viable as long as you can see the volume in the right top forming.
3. Decline from First Top
According to Schabacker, this element is even more significant to the validity of a double top than volume. He argues the decline in price that occurs between the two peaks should be consequential, amounting to approximately 20% of the price. In fact, he states that it could even be more than that but should not be much less.Other analysts are not so definite or demanding concerning the price decline. For some, including Yager, a decline of at least 10% is adequate. All agree, however, that the deeper the trough between the two tops, the better the performance of the pattern. 4. Volume
As mentioned previously, volume tends to be heaviest during the first peak, lighter on the second. It is common to see volume pick up again at the time of breakout.
5. Decisive Breakout
According to Murphy, the technical odds usually favor the continuation of the present trend.This means that it is perfectly normal market action for prices on an uptrend to peak at a resistance level a couple of times, retreat, and then resume that uptrend. It is a challenge for the analyst to determine whether the decline from a peak is the indication of the development of a valid double top or simply a temporary setback in the progression of a continuing uptrend.Analysts, therefore, advise cautious investors to wait for the price to fall back and break through the confirmation point before relying on the validity of the pattern. Many experts maintain that an investor should wait for a decisive breakout, confirmed by high volume. Others, like Bulkowski, are not so reliant on high volume at the time of breakout but do agree that the higher the volume at the time of breakout, the further the decline in prices that the pattern will register.
6. Pullback after Breakout
A pullback after the breakout is usual for a double top. Bulkowski argues that the higher the volume on the breakout, the higher the likelihood of a pullback. "When everyone sells their shares soon after a breakout, what is left is an unbalance of buying demand (since the sellers have all sold), so the price rises and pulls back to the confirmation point."
As you can see, the criteria for a double top has been met. This would appear to be a good call. What do you think?
Here's the gold chart:
http://http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=gld#chart2:symbol=gld;range=1y;indicator =volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;l ogscale=off
So, what is a double top? Definition found here:
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/double_top.html
1. Uptrend Preceding Stock Chart
As mentioned previously, the double top is a reversal formation. It begins with prices in an uptrend. Analysts focus on specific characteristics of that uptrend when searching for a valid double top. The trend upwards should be fairly long and healthy. Bulkowski maintains that an investor will want to see prices trending up over the short to intermediate term - approximately 3 to 6 months. Further, he states that "the price trend should not be a retrace in an extended decline but generally has a stair-step appearance. Schabacker confirms this approach, explaining that if the stock has been in a long, healthy uptrend, the double top is more likely to develop into a reversal. If the uptrend is short, the double top may not hold and the uptrend will continue.
2. Time between Tops
Analysts pay close attention to the "size" of the pattern - the duration of the interval between the two tops. Generally, the longer the time between the two tops, the more important the pattern as a good reversal. Schabacker warns investors off of a pattern where only a few days intervene between the two peaks.Analysts suggest that investors should look for patterns where at least one month elapses between the peaks. It is not unusual for a few months to pass between the dates of the two tops. Murphy mentions that these patterns can span several years.
On the other hand, Yager notes that patterns that are too long may be unmanageable, and she looks for tighter, shorter patterns. Yager believes that shorter patterns are viable as long as you can see the volume in the right top forming.
3. Decline from First Top
According to Schabacker, this element is even more significant to the validity of a double top than volume. He argues the decline in price that occurs between the two peaks should be consequential, amounting to approximately 20% of the price. In fact, he states that it could even be more than that but should not be much less.Other analysts are not so definite or demanding concerning the price decline. For some, including Yager, a decline of at least 10% is adequate. All agree, however, that the deeper the trough between the two tops, the better the performance of the pattern. 4. Volume
As mentioned previously, volume tends to be heaviest during the first peak, lighter on the second. It is common to see volume pick up again at the time of breakout.
5. Decisive Breakout
According to Murphy, the technical odds usually favor the continuation of the present trend.This means that it is perfectly normal market action for prices on an uptrend to peak at a resistance level a couple of times, retreat, and then resume that uptrend. It is a challenge for the analyst to determine whether the decline from a peak is the indication of the development of a valid double top or simply a temporary setback in the progression of a continuing uptrend.Analysts, therefore, advise cautious investors to wait for the price to fall back and break through the confirmation point before relying on the validity of the pattern. Many experts maintain that an investor should wait for a decisive breakout, confirmed by high volume. Others, like Bulkowski, are not so reliant on high volume at the time of breakout but do agree that the higher the volume at the time of breakout, the further the decline in prices that the pattern will register.
6. Pullback after Breakout
A pullback after the breakout is usual for a double top. Bulkowski argues that the higher the volume on the breakout, the higher the likelihood of a pullback. "When everyone sells their shares soon after a breakout, what is left is an unbalance of buying demand (since the sellers have all sold), so the price rises and pulls back to the confirmation point."
As you can see, the criteria for a double top has been met. This would appear to be a good call. What do you think?
The main lesson: buy weakness and sell strength.
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