Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

I believe the financial/economic bind Venezuela is in can be attributed to a number of problems, of which I can see:

1.) Chavez spending BIG....real big.....buying votes and buying a LOT of very expensive military kit

2.) Commodity price volatility

3.) ???? other reasons folks smarter than I can ascertain

Chavez has initiated a lot of populist spending programs and a rather massive arms buying spree.......and it's not just announcements of purchases...he's got some rather expensive and very recently purchased Russian kit in inventory TODAY.

Combine this considerable spending spree with dramatically dropping energy revenue(only just recovering now) and you have a recipe for disaster.

My concern lies with Chavez being a far bigger version of the stereotypical trailer trash lottery winner......it usually ends in disaster.

Will Chavez be able to hold out until his next lottery win comes in the form of the next spike in energy prices?

Or will he attempt to distract his citizens with a convenient war or border conflict he initiates against Columbia if energy prices don't climb high enough fast enough?

I think it's safe to say there's the headroom here to calculate the likely financial future of Venezuela based on Chavez spending X amount and bringing in Y revenue based on Z oil price.

But what happens if the numbers don't add up?

There's good headroom here in predicting bankruptcy...but what about war?

Chavez has already been making troubling noise about Columbia.......Didn't the Argentinian Junta do something similar in 82?

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

bwhahahahahahahaha! ROTFL.

.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0..._n_118820.html

25000 spies!!! Including judges/cooks/ you name it. Stay in yor fantasy world -but don't tell others it the truth !

[Crazyfingers]

Re: Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

I believe the financial/economic bind Venezuela is in can be attributed to a number of problems, of which I can see:

1.) Chavez spending BIG....real big.....buying votes and buying a LOT of very expensive military kit

2.) Commodity price volatility

3.) ???? other reasons folks smarter than I can ascertain

Chavez has initiated a lot of populist spending programs and a rather massive arms buying spree.......and it's not just announcements of purchases...he's got some rather expensive and very recently purchased Russian kit in inventory TODAY.

Combine this considerable spending spree with dramatically dropping energy revenue(only just recovering now) and you have a recipe for disaster.

My concern lies with Chavez being a far bigger version of the stereotypical trailer trash lottery winner......it usually ends in disaster.

Will Chavez be able to hold out until his next lottery win comes in the form of the next spike in energy prices?

Or will he attempt to distract his citizens with a convenient war or border conflict he initiates against Columbia if energy prices don't climb high enough fast enough?

I think it's safe to say there's the headroom here to calculate the likely financial future of Venezuela based on Chavez spending X amount and bringing in Y revenue based on Z oil price.

But what happens if the numbers don't add up?

There's good headroom here in predicting bankruptcy...but what about war?

Chavez has already been making troubling noise about Columbia.......Didn't the Argentinian Junta do something similar in 82?

Or even worse for him, oil dropping to $30. Venezuela has oil revenues for its social programs. I find it hard to believe that switching on the printing press to compensate for the shortfalls would work to well for Chavez.

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

Or even worse for him, oil dropping to $30. Venezuela has oil revenues for its social programs. I find it hard to believe that switching on the printing press to compensate for the shortfalls would work to well for Chavez.

I think that for a financial forum an awful lot of people are speaking as if they are unaware of dollar hegemony and its tie in to oil. Oil will break its highs of 150 a barrel in two years time. The pretext will be a 'recover' hence driving up energy costs - but the truth is that with out a rise in the price of oil to mop the trillions printed - it will be hyperinflation. Wayne Angell himslef stated confidently that the ability of the Fed to expand their balance sheet was -and I quote "infiinite".

The reason is because all excess short term dollar floods will be wiped up by the price of oil. So expect to see the pain - this time it won't appear as a 'market' shock -instead it will be a slightly decelerated pace to accelerate price. All ready you red headlines like "Oil lowest for the year!". Its part of the brainwash.

To Chavez- when a country that refuses to acknowledge that you were elected fair and square twice (one with a veritable battalion of international observers -including Carter himself) and then has a new treaty for the leasing of seven (SEVEN) super bases in Columbia -how are you not going to go for the bait -and divert resources to arm simply because the other guy has moved in and starting walking by your house with a bunch of shotguns.

This happens to all leaders who try to re-distribute wealth. Innuedo, false lies and failed assassination and coups can not taint true leaders. In the US he would be hailed for eradicating poverty, instituting universal health care, annexing all the bonuses of AIG/Goldman/Bear Stearns/BOFA/American Express/Wells Fargo/Wachovia and all personal assets of executives who had fiduciary responsibility.


He then would have nationalized the bank and declared all prior debt to the Fed null and void and ask the US armed forces to enforce said decree. He would settle with BIS for pennies of the default of the US government buy declaring a dual exchange rate. Any inexpensive cheap imports that could be made in the US -say like garments would double in price. those products made in Venezuela - food etc will paid at double the price in effect boosting local industry over nite and leveling the playing field against the Walmarts/ Cargills of the world.


There is a reason they want these guys assasinated. These guys are making our jokers look like the jokers they are-Chavez and Fidel have done more for the over all people than anyone in government.

[iyamwutiam]

Re: Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

How dollar hegemony would work -say with China:

Oil goes up to 200 dollars a barrel in 2012. So if you stick at 7 yuan and they need say a 10,000,000 barrels a day. Thats a 2 billion dollar a day bill -thats basically 730 billion dllars a YEAR for oil.

so thats 730 billion * 7 =is a lot 4.9 trillion yuan

730 billion *5 = 3.65 trillion yuan

Conversely :

1 trillion yuan / 7 (rate) = 142 billion dollars

1 trillion yuan/ 5 = 200 billion dollars

you essentially your forced to churn your dollar reserves at a higher burn rate. IF you don't than we slap tariffs on the steel and rubber -and you play along.

So you take less out of your economy when you re-value- your currency higher. So the dollar appears weaker but in reality what is happening is countries are FORCED to re-value up wards to stop with drawing domestic reserves and coverting to dollars and removing more reserves from the country. - which is not in dollars at the domestic level. If people start dumping yuan this is when all hell can break lose. Because now - people know that even with 2 trillion dollars in reserves they can force you to de-value - there by reducing the standard of living in your country. Only the super rich benefit because with the upward valuation of the yuan -they can go buy companies , resources and technologies.

These companies have failed in Australia/ US and Europe. Like Abu Dhabis sovereign funds they are sitting on billions but can't buy into high end businesses like say an Boeing/GM/Delta/HP etc. So they are forced to deposit them in short term treasuries and wait on the sidelines.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Chavez.....Is going to get his Head blown off!

Personally am waiting on Argentina. One of my favorite countries.

Haven't done the countryside, but BA is Great!