Trump to win?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Trump to win?

What's also interesting is the timing.

I'm across the time/date line so I'm not exactly sure when this rolled out.

Did it roll out Friday afternoon once the markets closed?

The last time I recall something similar happening it was a few months ago on a Friday afternoon in San Francisco after the markets had closed when the phone of a fellow classmate and friend(CTO of a major Turkish mobile carrier) started blowing up with over the attempted coup.

That was a very interesting and action packed weekend.

That turned out to be a major mess that hasn't yet ended, and this looks like it could be going the same route.

I'm starting to get a bit anxious around North American Friday Afternoons.

A few days ago Newsnight here on BBC TV interviewed a Turkish Minister who gave a very clear impression that Turkey were about to move their border to enclose a large area of Iraq to "protect" their citizens in Mozel.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump to win?

Lol. That cover's hilarious. This election's unreal. All coming down to who showed/grabbed whose genitals when.

[GRG55]

Re: Trump to win?

Seems like its coming down to whether those that govern (or seek to govern) are capable of governing themselves?

Whether a philandering President, genital sexting, groping billionaires, or corrupt philanthropic Foundations (the WSJ didn't mince any words I see) it seems the limits of a heretofore tolerant public are no longer an unknown. Even the openly Hillary supportive MSM can't put a believable spin or persuade the masses to dismiss this stuff any more - it's finally become that blatant and offensive.

Can't wait for the Central Banker equivalent, once the financial cracks open up some more and start swallowing innocents in ever increasing numbers...

[shiny!]

Re: Trump to win?

How will the stock market react to a Clinton win -vs- a Trump win? What market sectors will benefit from Clinton or Trump?

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

No matter how it plays out, this guy needs to be given a gold watch and a pension as soon as possible and turn it over to an independent prosecutor. His decision making is baffling and leads to all sorts of untoward speculation.

...He might be seeking to restore his badly damaged reputation, recognizing that the damage he has inflicted on the FBI is substantial. Three days ago, American Thinker published an open letter from a retired FBI Agent, Hugh Galyean, that laid out some of the damage Comey has inflicted on the institution he leads. There is little doubt that this reached many in the FBI family, putting in print what people have only whispered about. If those silenced voices start speaking out, Comey could face a serious loss of face. In this scenario, he is heading off a staff rebellion, possibly including mass resignations.

Rush Limbaugh today discussed an alternative theory, that by announcing an FBI Investigation resuming, Comey is putting a lid on further attention to Wikileaks. I guess this means that Clinton forces will argue we must wait for the investigation to be complete (after the election) before speaking about what the evil Russians are planting into our politics.

It is possible that something so dramatic came up in the pertinent emails that postponing a public reaction by not announcing the reopening of the investigation would, be regarded as political interference by covering up a smoking gun until after the election. In this scenario, Comey is assuming the evidence cannot be suppressed, and that he would be held accountable after it comes out. This scenario also indicates that we could be headed for a constitutional crisis, involving the possible indictment of a president-elect before an election. Or the evidence being turned over to the House of Representatives for impeachment hearings.

Meanwhile, Loving grandmother Loretta Lynch know what she'd rather do.

Comey’s decision to make public new evidence that may raise additional legal questions about Clinton was contrary to the views of the Attorney General, according to a well-informed Administration official. Lynch expressed her preference that Comey follow the department’s longstanding practice of not commenting on ongoing investigations, and not taking any action that could influence the outcome of an election, but he said that he felt compelled to do otherwise.

She'd rather handle it like some chance meeting at the airport,

The private meeting, described by both parties as a chance encounter, came as the Justice Department was wrapping up its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email account during her tenure at the State Department.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

The Donald predicted this email thing would blow up in HRC's face because of Huma's crazy husband. Back in 2015, Trump alleged that his Weiner's wife, Huma Abedin, a top adviser to Hillary Clinton, was passing sensitive information to him and now it turns out he might have been right.

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

When Carl Bernstein speculates "bombshell" and "national security chatter" it is a very serious matter:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vid...bombshell.html

As for Comey reopening this 11 days before the election, he was forced to do so. If he had waited for the election could you imagine what would happen if there is indictable material here. You would have a constitutional crisis. He felt he had to reopen. There has been talk that a number of FBI agents who felt that Clinton should have been prosecuted based on the information they had in July. Some agents are still incensed and they would have leaked it if Comey had not come forth.

As I stated the FBI has to have staff on this 24/7 so we have definitive information before we vote.

Meanwhile Wikileaks will continue to dump more each day, so there may be a lot more damaging information there,

HRC created this mess and she will suffer the consequences IF she deserves too.

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

How will the stock market react to a Clinton win -vs- a Trump win? What market sectors will benefit from Clinton or Trump?

The Clinton camp will be all about infrastructure in the first 100 days. If she wins on 11/8 you'll hear about this plan. As you might imagine, I have no contacts in the Trump camp so I've no idea what they really have planned. No matter who wins, don't invest in coal, that's a non-starter. With Trump, you'll get more traditional energy, with Clinton more renewable energy. If either wins, don't be poor. That's a bad plan in the US. If Trump wins and you're poor, don't get sick. If Clinton wins and you're middle class, get ready to pay a lot more for health insurance.

As for Wall Street, they have all the money. If Trump wins I expect they will suck up to him like he's the 2nd coming and he'll love it as much as the Clintons, the Bush family or anyone else who's risen to the top in the US.

The wild card with Trump is that he probably does have the power as president to nullify trade agreements like NAFTA. A trade war would not be good for anyone in my opinion, including Wall Street.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

As for Comey reopening this 11 days before the election, he was forced to do so.

We'll never agree on causation but this is a very decent bureaucrat put between a rock and a hard place. This is the man who did not allow our civil rights to be walked over when those f*ing bastards in the Bush administration tried to force John Ashcroft to sign off on NSA spying while Ashcroft was in the hospital and he was acting Attorney General.

You can imagine anything you want to imagine but this is a hard working guy in a very unusual and difficult circumstance. He hasn't done a great job managing this issue and he's probably not the smartest guy in the world but he's certainly as smart as anyone here. I would not want to be in his situation. You know I support HRC and Comey is no close friend of the Clintons. If she wins, I will judge her character based on how she treats him during her administration.

America owes this man some gratitude. I've no idea if he'll ever get it.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

The Clinton camp will be all about infrastructure in the first 100 days...

Same lies Bill Clinton peddled to us during his first 100 days. Can you hear how they rhyme with the present crisis?

"...The 46-year-old Mr. Clinton committed his Administration not only to ending the lingering recession, but also to lifting the nation to a higher level of economic productivity for years to come."

"...Among the items that he placed at the top of his agenda during the long campaign are an economic stimulus package, including large-scale public construction projects, a comprehensive health-care program, a family leave law, educational initiatives and campaign-finance reform."

"...For businessmen and the financial markets, Mr. Clinton said, "We understand the need to pursue stability even as we pursue growth," and added, "the changes I seek will strengthen America's market systems, not weaken them."

"...For the benefit of Mr. Hussein and anyone else who might need reminding, the Arkansas Democrat, whose lack of foreign-policy experience was a campaign issue, said that "the greatest mistake any adversary could make would be to doubt America's resolve in this period of transition.""

THE 1992 ELECTIONS: PRESIDENT-ELECT -- THE OVERVIEW; Clinton, Savoring Victory, Starts Sizing Up Job Ahead

Bill Clinton's first days gave us NAFTA, "don't as don't tell," a failed nominee for Attorney General who couldn't seem to obey the most basic laws, Clinton criminality in the form of the Whitewater scandal and Hillary's commodity trades, the suicide of Vince Foster, and Paula Jones.

Now with HRC leading the ticket, they're peddling the same empty rhetoric they have for the past 30 years, running on a record of no accomplishments, failed promises and criminal conduct. What sort of magical thinking is required to believe their capable of behaving differently this time around, never mind willing?

I look at the old Clinton campaign lit and it's a litany of false promises and I expect even more failure, falsehood, and crooked dealings this turn should HRC steal the win.

Bill Clinton for President 1992 Campaign Brochures

‘Fighting for the Forgotten Middle Class’

"America is in trouble. Our people are hurting. The rich keep getting richer and the politicians just seem to be taking care of themselves. It's time we took care of our own. If America's not strong enough at home, we'll never be able to stand up for what we believe in around the world. National security begins at home."

BILL CLINTON OFFERS AN ECONOMIC PLAN TO COMPETE AND PROSPER IN THE WORLD ECONOMY
Bill Clinton will cut taxes for the middle class and make the rich pay their fair share.
Bill Clinton will encourage and maintain commitment to better education at every level.
Bill Clinton will make sure American workers can get training and retraining throughout their careers -- so that America can achieve a high-skill, high wage economy.
Bill Clinton will fight for tough, effective trade laws and encourage investment in research and development for emerging technologies.
Bill Clinton will make certain there are more FHA loans so middle-income families can buy homes.
Bill Clinton will speed up building and repair of our roads and bridges.

BILL CLINTON OFFERS A NEW AMERICAN HEALTH CARE PLAN
Middle-class working families are living in fear everyday that if they get sick they'll lose everything. That's wrong. In his last year as President, Bill Clinton will present a new American health care plan to:

Cover everybody.
Control costs, improve quality, expand preventive and long-term care.
Maintain consumers' choice of doctors.
Take on the insurance companies and the medical bureaucracy, and demand reform.

BILL CLINTON OFFERS A PLAN TO ENSURE WORLD-CLASS EDUCATION
The key to our economic future is education. A nationally-recognized leader in education reform, Bill Clinton will be a real "Education President As President", he will:

Fully fund Head Start for all eligible young children.
Demand accountability and quality of every school, teacher and student.
Establish a national apprenticeship program for young people who don't want to go to college but don't want to end up in dead-end jobs.
Launch a domestic GI bill to guarantee a college education to everyone if they're willing to pay it back as a small percentage of income or through two years of national service in their communities as police officers, teachers, health care personnel, and other vital professions.
.
.
.
‘Putting People First’
It's Time to Put People First.
That is the core of our national economic strategy for America. And that will be the fundamental idea that guides every day of our Administration.

For more than a decade our government has been rigged in favor of the rich and special interests. While the wealthiest Americans get richer, middle-class Americans work harder and earn less while paying higher taxes to a government that fails to produce what we need: good jobs in a growing economy, world-class education, affordable health care, and safe streets and neighborhoods. Economic growth will not come without a national economic strategy to invest in people and meet the competition. Today we have no economic vision, no economic leadership and no economic strategy.

Our political system has failed us, too. Our government doesn't work. Hard-working Americans who play by rules have no voice in Washington.

Our National Economic Strategy puts people first by investing more than $50 billion annually over the next four years to put America back to work -- the most dramatic economic growth program since World War II. To pay for these investments and reduce our national deficit, we will save nearly $300 billion by cutting spending, closing corporate tax loopholes, and requiring the very wealthy to pay their fair share of taxes.

No one will agree with all the details of our plan. But you have a right to know what we'll do and where we stand.

Put America to Work.
To restore economic growth, we must put our people back to work and invest in our nation. Our strategy will:

Create a Rebuild America Fund with a $20 billion annual federal investment for each of the next four years, leveraged by state, local, private sector and pension fund contributions. This fund will be used to renovate roads, bridges and highways and create the world's best transportation, information and environmental protection technologies and networks.

Convert our defense-based economy to a peacetime one to ensure that the communities and workers who won the Cold War don't get left out in the cold. Create a civilian research and development agency to encourage conversion and cutting-edge technologies.

Invest in our communities by creating a nationwide network of community development banks to provide loans to entrepreneurs and homeowners; requiring companies that bid on city projects to set up shop in enterprise zones to employ local residents; and easing the inner-city credit crunch to prevent "redlining."

Make our streets safer and create jobs by adding 100,000 new police officers, with incentives for military personnel to join.

Demand Corporate Responsibility.
Our National Economic Strategy will make large corporations accountable to the American people and provide incentives for entrepreneurs and small businesses, which create most of the jobs in our nation. We will:

Ensure tax fairness by cracking down on foreign companies that manipulate our laws to evade taxes. Eliminate deductions for companies that ship American jobs overseas and reward outrageous executive pay.

Encourage private investment with tax credits that reward companies that make long-term commitments to new business, and reward those who invest in research and development.

Open up world markets by passing tougher trade legislation, creating a national Economic Security Council and stopping our trade representatives from cashing in on their contacts when they leave government.

Ensure worker retraining by requiring every employer to spend 1.5 percent of payroll on training for all workers -- not just executives.

Reward Work and Families.
Our National Economic Strategy will put people first by rewarding work, demanding responsibility and ending welfare as we know it. We will:
Make welfare a second chance, not a way of life by scrapping the current system and empowering those on welfare by providing the education, training and child care they need to go to work.

Reduce the middle-class tax burden by giving working families a choice between a children's tax credit and a rate cut -- and pay for it by making the rich pay their fair share.

Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit so that no one with a family who works full time has to raise children on poverty.

Sign the Family and Medical Leave Act to give American parents the right to 12 weeks of unpaid leave to care for a newborn or a sick relative.

Crack down on deadbeat parents by reporting those delinquent in child support payments to credit agencies, using the IRS to collect child support and starting a national deadbeat databank.

Lifetime Learning.
Governments fail when our schools fail. Education today is more than the key to climbing the ladder of opportunity, it is an imperative for our nation. Our strategy will:

Prepare children for school by helping disadvantaged parents build a learning ethic at home and fully funding programs like Head Start and the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program that save taxpayers several dollars for every one spent.

Overhaul America's public schools with tough standards and national exams in core subjects, and provide public school choice. Enact a "Safe Schools Initiative" to help ensure a positive learning environment.

Giving dropouts a second chance by giving them a chance to develop skills and learn self-discipline through a Youth Opportunity Corps.

Develop a national apprenticeship program that brings business, labor, and educators together to offer non-college-bound students valuable training.

Give every American the right to borrow for college by establishing a National Service Trust Fund, maintaining Pell Grants, and scrapping the current student loan program. Students will repay their loans either as a small percentage of their income after graduation or by going home to do community service as teachers, counselors or police officers.

Provide Affordable Quality Health Care.
Our health care system costs too much and does not work. Washington has favored the insurance companies, drug manufacturers and health care bureaucracies. Putting people first means guaranteeing every American the right to affordable quality health care. We will:

Control health care costs to ensure that they do not rise faster than the rate of inflation.

Eliminate tax breaks for drug companies that raise their prices faster than Americans' incomes.

Take on the powerful insurance lobby to prevent consumers from subsidizing billions in administrative waste.

Guarantee a core benefits package that includes ambulatory physician care, inpatient hospital care, prescription drugs, basic mental health, and expanded prenatal, preventive, and long-term care. The package will be set by a health standards board made up of consumers, providers, business, labor and government.

Make health care a right, not a privilege, by giving employers and employees the right to buy private insurance or opt for a public package.

Streamline the health care bureaucracy and protect small business by instituting a "community rating" program.

Break the Washington Stalemate.
No plan to put our people first, no strategy to make the economy grow, can succeed unless we break the stalemate in Washington. It is time to cut the bureaucracy, limit the special interests, stop the revolving door and cut off the unrestricted flow of campaign funds. We will:

Cut 100,000 unnecessary bureaucratic positions through attrition and mandate 3 percent across-the-board savings in every federal agency.

Eliminate taxpayer subsidies for lobbyists and special interests. Toughen and streamline disclosure requirements.

Reduce the White House staff by 25 percent, and challenge Congress to do the same.

Stop the revolving door from public service to private enrichment by requiring senior Administration officials pledge never to become registered agents for foreign governments, and challenging Congress to do the same.

Enact strong campaign reform legislation that caps spending on Congressional campaigns: slashes political action committee (PAC) contributions to the individual legal limit of $1,000; and lowers the cost of air time so that TV becomes an instrumentation of education, not a weapon of political assassination.

If you're ready to put people first, join our cause.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

Nate is far more interesting when he's speculating than when he's playing data scientist. My money is on a combination of 2 and 4, scorched Earth style.

It seems to me as though there are four basic courses the story might take. As a framing device, I’m going to conceive of these as four strategies available to the Clinton campaign, although of course the campaign isn’t the only actor here – the Trump campaign, the FBI, the news media, down-ballot candidates and so forth also have some choices to make.

Election Update: Four Ways Forward For Clinton After The FBI News

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump to win?

Same lies Bill Clinton peddled to us during his first 100 days. Can you hear how they rhyme with the present crisis?



Bill Clinton's first days gave us NAFTA, "don't as don't tell," a failed nominee for Attorney General who couldn't seem to obey the most basic laws, Clinton criminality in the form of the Whitewater scandal and Hillary's commodity trades, the suicide of Vince Foster, and Paula Jones.

Now with HRC leading the ticket, they're peddling the same empty rhetoric they have for the past 30 years, running on a record of no accomplishments, failed promises and criminal conduct. What sort of magical thinking is required to believe their capable of behaving differently this time around, never mind willing?

I look at the old Clinton campaign lit and it's a litany of false promises and I expect even more failure, falsehood, and crooked dealings this turn should HRC steal the win.

I think one thing's obvious Woody. Michael had this one on the nose a while back (I really wish he would have left the racial epithets out, though).

Meanwhile, we've got a choice between one Manhattanite who puts the Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate sector first, or another.



Oh well. The plan continues onward. GINI 0.55 by 2025. It's gonna be real. Putting the banana right before the Republic.

Buckle up. In a land where the bosses can't or won't play by the rules, you better start breaking them too if you don't want to bend knee. They just take what they want. What's stopping you?

One things for sure. Things will get worse for most of us. And they'll keep doing everything the economists say. Trump thinks you can solve the world's problems by giving tax cuts to the rich. Hillary thinks the answer is to punish the poor with Pigouvian taxes. They both have economists tripping over each other to demand how correct they are. At least the economists' myth that the bad medicine is good for you is starting to die on both the left and the right.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

Can't disagree with the detail but so what? Look at the bigger picture. Trump upsets the template, mixes things up and might be disruptive enough to at least create an environment where change is possible.

The hope of some outcome along those lines is what I've aspired to at least since HRC shanked Bernie and Wikileaks confirmed the plot. No, it's not perfect, the outcomes are uncertain, and it could go bad, yes, but we have to start somewhere and play the cards that are dealt to us. And why so glum, chum? I think there's every reason for optimism in the face of a corrupted Democratic Party being handed a stunning loss after betting the farm on Hillary. Change you can believe in, right?

Dream with me, here. What if that's followed by a strong showing by the Stein/Greens left and further embarrasses the neoliberals and GOP neocon defectors in the Democratic Party? If the Sanders/Warren left can't make something of this once in a century opportunity to make further gains, then what good are they? Too much? Maybe, but it feels like we're in uncharted territory where anything can happen.

And look at all that's happened. Trump runs away with the GOP and splits the party, sending the neocons back to their Democratic Party roots. Look where Wikileaks has emails showing the Clinton people maneuvering to run against Trump. What happens to the smartest guys in the room after all their scheming? They set the table that might deliver us a right-populist takeover of the Executive branch by the very same character they thought was their fall guy. It's too poetic to be real, but do you think they misunderestimated the butterfly effect of that correspondents' dinner one-off. And from my little perch, all of it still goes to the fact that Trump truly is an outlier, unexpected, unplanned, and I think just the thing this sclerotic polity needs.

My expectations are low and I'm inclined to be generous. If we can avoid a shooting war with Russia, I say give Obama's Peace Prize to Trump. If it means indicting the Clintons and ending their criminal enterprise, call Trump the new Eliot Ness. If we can get the TECI economy rolling, put Trump's name on every bridge and building he erects if that gets us the investment.

I think the mass of Americans are willing to roll the dice that things might break their way for once. And why not? Can you blame them for wanting to send their so-called betters a nice ufck you for change?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Trump to win?

Can you blame them for wanting to send their so-called betters a nice ufck you for change?

Absolutely not

And from my little perch, all of it still goes to the fact that Trump truly is an outlier, unexpected, unplanned, and I think just the thing this sclerotic polity needs.

Was he truly unexpected? Trump looked strong from the getgo. He led the polls from the getgo too, despite the whining and protestation of the pundits. Methinks the lady doth protest too much...

Trump was couth enough to play golf with and go to weddings with and invite to Whitehouse dinners nary a year or two ago.

Now one side would have me believe he's such an unexpected, unplanned outsider that he'd rock the whole system, while the other side would have me believe he's an uncultured lowbrow swine, who just happens to own tailored white tie tuxedos and be invited to all the most exclusive events in the world.

Too much cognitive dissonance for me. Neither narrative adds up.

My guess is Trump is exactly what he appears to be. Maybe the 50th richest guy in America who makes most of his money off real estate, and who grew up with a silver spoon, became a socialite, and who is friendly and comfortable hanging out with all the inner-circles of media and political power and always has been. My guess is Hillary is exactly what she appears to be. One half of a team that has used the Whitehouse to achieve unprecedented personal wealth for themselves, and who cares very little about anyone but her and hers.

The best pro-Trump argument going is the foreign policy one. But even there, as I don't like the idea of Clinton taunting Russia into a fight, and the media dutifully following as they have been, I also worry about Trump's more boots on the ground, double budgets strategy for the middle east.

The way I see it, we're stuck with a choice between two candidates, each of which wants the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer, each of which wants more soldiers and more war, each of which wants a larger debt and greater deficits, and both of which feel more at home in a penthouse in downtown Manhattan than anywhere else in the world.

It's another choice between rule by Brookings or rule by Heritage.

The veneers and the narratives we have over the meat this time are particularly juicy and egregious.

But I really don't sense anything too original, or too outrageous, for that matter.