Trump to win?

[lektrode]

Re: What is the plan ?

I know you directed your question to Thailandnotes, but I'll give you my virtual $0.02... (which is worth exactly what you paid for it)

If HRC is elected and the wheels fall off the world financial system under her watch, and it's as bad as we think it's going to be, the Democrats will get the blame. It'll be the end of the Democrat party, and thus the end of the two-party system as we know it.

nears i can tell, ms shiny! ?

that was supposed to happen during geedubya's term (2001-2008)
which is why it all landed in his lap; ie: so that the lib-dems could blame it all on bush+repubs
using that as the ULTIMATE EXCUSE for the affirmative action candidate's failures (on nearly all fronts that matter) on what they inherited - even while being in complete command of the agenda - in 2009-10 - even as they bailed out TBTF, inc and 'passed so they could read what was in it' and so thoroughly screw up the entire medical services delivery channel - vs 'insurance' - that NO ONE WANTS TO HIRE ANYBODY OVER 50 any more

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Lifelong Democrat decides to vote for Trump:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/party-lo...ton-1474498244

[Thailandnotes]

Re: What is the plan ?

Could you flesh that out?

Of course not, who knows what will happen?

Trump and the Republican party will embrace each other. Roe v Wade will be overturned. There will be Rodney King riots. The stock market will tank. The economy will get hammered. The left will be in disarray and throw up a Hail Mary candidate in 2020 who will get pummeled.

or

Hillary will go to war, back Wall Street during a hopeless downturn, and be a one-term Carter. The right will lose it and make Trump rallies look tame and sane. The left will be screaming at Warren and Sanders (“We told you so!”) for backing Clinton.

Maybe you will get the stirrings of a new party, but I doubt it.

Odds that a Trump victory = a reboot of American politics...2%

Odds that a Clinton victory = a reboot of American politics...5%

Odds that neither victory = a reboot of American politics...93%

[Thailandnotes]

Re: What is the plan ?

Of course not, who knows what will happen...

http://nyti.ms/2cpWKwM

[Woodsman]

Re: What is the plan ?

http://nyti.ms/2cpWKwM

Meanwhile, what the NYT won't show you.



Bet this poor fellow was wishing he had exercised his Second Amendment rights. You want a picture of America without the Second Amendment, after HRC takes your birthright to defend yourself, your neighbors, your city, then look no further than to this innocent man's suffering.

Imagine the terror he must feel. What if it was you or your wife or daughter?

When are the police and National Guard going to get serious with these people and put them in the prison cells they belong? Have they not been issues ammunition?
Where is President Obama and how long will his silence continue to speak of his indifference? Is it because NC is so full of Deplorables?
How long must our North Carolinian brothers and sisters suffer in fear before they say no more? Could they be afraid of the consequences of self and community defense - defend and be branded a violent racist or be brutally assaulted or die and avoid the appellation?

This is going to move NC to Trump. No doubt in my mind. You may not find a single voter admitting it, but I think you can take it to the bank.

[LazyBoy]

Re: Trump to win?

Lifelong Democrat decides to vote for Trump:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/party-lo...ton-1474498244

The Democratic Party has moved away from where it was, but so has this guy.

He's all excited about standard right wing stuff: "reducing the marginal and corporate tax rates and eliminating thousands of job-killing and business-stifling regulations, the biggest of which is ObamaCare" and rebuilding the military.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

The Democratic Party has moved away from where it was, but so has this guy.

He's all excited about standard right wing stuff: "reducing the marginal and corporate tax rates and eliminating thousands of job-killing and business-stifling regulations, the biggest of which is ObamaCare" and rebuilding the military.

We used to call them "Reagan Democrats" but I guess that will need to be updated to "Trump Democrats" moving forward.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Trump to win?

I'm starting to think the Asch Conformity Experiment may be relevant to this particular US Presidential election cycle.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TYIh4MkcfJA


i've been using it very recently as an example in training to mitigate/break common human psychological behaviour that may negatively impact high performance decision making.

Basically, humans overwhelmingly choose to be wrong(knowingly) in order to belong, at least when their choice is made public and opposition is overwhelming and unanimous.

But when small minority agreement becomes public, conformity bias begins to erode.

And most importantly, when choice/selection is anonymous, conformity bias largely collapses.

-----

Does this possibly have relevance to this election?

I suspect so.

In all the many conversations I had with a broad cross section of people in the US earlier this year where the conversation turned to awkward American national politics, it always started and ended the same way.

A default assumption of Hillary and highly negative Trump. Anything else was framed as insane.

I've never heard anyone openly support Trump, but have witnessed an incredible amount of conflicted body language from those who didn't participate in the conversations.

Poll numbers certainly show a far, far greater level of support for Trump than every conversation I've ever been a part of.

-----

I'd like to see another Asch conformity variation that includes the effect of overwhelming wrong mass media influence on conformity using video, radio, print, social media.

And more importantly, what it takes to break such conformity beyond just anonymity.

-----

i'm not a Trump fan, nor looking forward to him as President if we wins. I view this election as a choice between pancreatic cancer or Ebola.

But I have a hunch that the open public conformity towards Hillary Clinton comprehensively supported by very narrowly owned mass media could be shocked by the remaining anonymity of voting.

Which has me thinking that if voting anonymity was compromised we'd be in much bigger trouble than we already are.

[vt]

Re: What is the plan ?

Notice he was unarmed too.

This type of behavior, while rare happens, and it is criminal. The responsible individuals need to be arrested for assault and battery.

A black person understands profiling and that some unarmed black men are being killed by police. Every effort must be made to avoid such future shootings.

is unfortunate that the public won't wait for the full facts with visual evidence that might conclusively show what happened. If the Charlotte man had a gun then it will make the protests without merit. The police are under enormous pressure and and in greater peril than they have ever been. However they have to been exceedingly careful to make as sure as possible that a threat from a citizen is real and life threatening before using their guns.

I did notice in Charlotte a white protesters destroying property and some whites looting. There are elements in the community as well as from outside looking to cause trouble and incite.

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Interesting analysis of turnout. I feel this years turnout may surprise as Trump's supporters are more enthusiastic.

TURNOUT IS KEY

Less than 60% of eligible voters
voted in the 2012 presidential
election.

2012 US voter turnout 58% Voted

42% Stayed home


In 2012, 126 million eligible voters voted
(57.5% — down from 62.3% in 2008).


93 million of those eligible (42.5%) did
not vote. (source: Bipartisan Policy
Commission).

What about polling? It's possible that older retired voters who may be more likely to support Trump may not be answering home phones. There is so much telephone scams that unless the caller leave a message these voters won't answer. I work but my home phone gets an average of 3 to 4 such calls a day, and I block every number I can.

I feel unreliable polling and uncertain turnout could be responsible for possible millions of votes.

[shiny!]

Re: Trump to win?

I'm starting to think the Asch Conformity Experiment may be relevant to this particular US Presidential election cycle.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TYIh4MkcfJA


i've been using it very recently as an example in training to mitigate/break common human psychological behaviour that may negatively impact high performance decision making.

Basically, humans overwhelmingly choose to be wrong(knowingly) in order to belong, at least when their choice is made public and opposition is overwhelming and unanimous.

But when small minority agreement becomes public, conformity bias begins to erode.

And most importantly, when choice/selection is anonymous, conformity bias largely collapses.

-----

Does this possibly have relevance to this election?

I suspect so.

In all the many conversations I had with a broad cross section of people in the US earlier this year where the conversation turned to awkward American national politics, it always started and ended the same way.

A default assumption of Hillary and highly negative Trump. Anything else was framed as insane.

I've never heard anyone openly support Trump, but have witnessed an incredible amount of conflicted body language from those who didn't participate in the conversations.

Poll numbers certainly show a far, far greater level of support for Trump than every conversation I've ever been a part of.

-----

I'd like to see another Asch conformity variation that includes the effect of overwhelming wrong mass media influence on conformity using video, radio, print, social media.

And more importantly, what it takes to break such conformity beyond just anonymity.

-----

i'm not a Trump fan, nor looking forward to him as President if we wins. I view this election as a choice between pancreatic cancer or Ebola.

But I have a hunch that the open public conformity towards Hillary Clinton comprehensively supported by very narrowly owned mass media could be shocked by the remaining anonymity of voting.

Which has me thinking that if voting anonymity was compromised we'd be in much bigger trouble than we already are.

Very interesting, lakedaemonian. Thanks for the link to the Ashe Conformity experiment.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: What is the plan ?

Meanwhile, what the NYT won't show you.

Release the videos.

http://www.democracynow.org/2016/9/2...acp_protesters

[Woodsman]

Re: What is the plan ?

Release the videos.

Sure, and black lives matter. But can we stop rioting, looting, raping, shooting and pillaging first. It seems to me that is the first order of business.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: What is the plan ?

It seems to me that is the first order of business.

"First order"

Those 2 words seem like a dog whistle to me.

http://www.democracynow.org/2016/9/2...acp_protesters

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Trump to win?

Because if so many primary precincts hadn't committed massive voter fraud on behalf of Clinton he might've been in first place. This primary season has been absolutely riddled with corruption, e.g. electronic voting machines throwing votes, thousands of voters purged from the rolls, precints NY that leaned heavily to Sanders drastically shortening their voting hours... They're not even making an effort to hide it anymore. Steal a thousand votes here, a thousand votes there, and the propaganda ministry keeps reporting that Hillary's the winner...

Stalin said, "The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."

I have talked to several software engineers about the electronic voting systems, and most of them are quite suspiscious of them. The actual "firmware" is proprietary, so no one outside
the company really knows how they work. Also, if the machine was skewing the results 5%, how would we know? I really think a more accountable voting system is possible.