Trump to win?

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

i am hesitant to believe the probabilities being generated by 538 and the nytimes. they are based on polling and i think there is a hidden-trump effect similar to the hidden-racist effect noted in elections with african-american candidates: they always garner 5% less than the polls would indicate, because of the number of people who won't admit they are voting against the black guy. otoh, i don't think there was this skew in either of obama's elections, so perhaps the hidden-racist vote is disappearing. nonethelss, my expectation is that trump wins roughly 5% more votes than the polls would predict. hillary is currently running 8-9% up nationally, so current numbers would still indicate a victory for her, but not the landslide some people are beginning to write about.

It's wouldn't surprise me if there's a female effect similar to that which happens to black candidates, especially for the first woman to run for president. But we could be misreading the effect as it may be Trump voters unwilling to tell anyone they're voting for him. On the surface, that makes more sense to me. I think her campaign reads it the same way. When they're up 10% like Pennsylvania, they start planning to work other areas and slow down the spending. If it drops to 5%, they'll step it up again.

I'm doing the same thing. I've stopped lending as much support in my home state which is strongly leaning toward HRC, and I'm currently focusing efforts and donations in AZ, (sorry shiny! I know you don't support that). I spend about 1/3 of my time in Arizona working with plenty of time in the evenings to volunteer. Current focus is registering Latino voters in Southern Arizona. Latinos should make up 20% of the voting public in Arizona in 2016, up from 9% 10 years ago.

For Obama, the 2nd term was likely less about race as people had gotten to know him so 'closet' racists were less likely to fear him.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

That's pretty good for mid-August, if you ask any political anarchist.

A phrase turned as deftly as The Donald himself. I shall await your indignation when someone asks you why you're an anarchist and you tell them you never said you were.

But if I were to "ask any political anarchist", they might see themselves in this quote by Thoreau, "There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root...". I assume this anarchist believes he's striking at the root, but an anarchist, (not that you are one), cannot follow a fascist and hope to peacefully transform a system they see as evil. If this anarchist's intent is to break the system by whatever means necessary, fascism will serve them well unless they succeed at which point they will have to live with the greater evil they've created.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

A phrase turned as deftly as The Donald himself. I shall await your indignation when someone asks you why you're an anarchist and you tell them you never said you were.

I said in response to an earlier post that "this year I am a political nihilist" and if anarchy brings this rotten and undemocratic party system to collapse, let it come.

The primary goal is the destruction of the Democratic and Republican Parties and the upending of the political status quo. The secondary goal is ending the political viability of HRC. Trump is the instrument that can accomplish these. Nothing else matters at this point for me and all things follow from it. This year I am a political nihilist (as it seems is everyone else) and an anarchist in the mold of Gramsci.

"The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear."

My favorite of the Transcendentalists remains Ralph Waldo Emerson and your behavior reminds me of one of his best lines. As a liberal Democrat, you probably never heard of "Self Reliance" but in it he wrote:

"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers divine."

Of all the "little statesmen" I've encoutered in my years, you resemble it best, Santa. So very small, you seem.

Emerson meant much to me as a young man and now that I am facing my end, I'm grateful that it was he instead of Thoreau that made the stronger impression. I've lived my life by Emerson's themes of individual authority, the gift of solitude, and most important to me personally, the discipline of nonconformity. Of that discipline, Emerson wrote:

"Whoso would be a man must be a nonconformist."

So it seems we two are of a type and Ralph Waldo had our number down before either of us were born.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

I'm with her.

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Clinton and Trump In A Statistical Tie:


http://zogbyanalytics.com/news/756-c...er-millennials

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump to win?

Years ago, when I was an exchange student in the Soviet Union, a Russian friend explained how he got his news.

"For news about Russia, Radio Liberty," he said. "For news about America, Soviet newspapers." He smiled. "Countries lie about themselves, tell truth about others."

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...-shill-w434484

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

+1

[wayiwalk]

Re: Trump to win?

+1. I seem to find great US coverage about the presidential race (and politics in general, and also crime) in the UK publications, along with RT.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

Of all the "little statesmen" I've encoutered in my years, you resemble it best, Santa. So very small, you seem.

Enjoy your certitude and btw, were you quoting Yoda at the end? Made me laugh anyway.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

More good news for the Trump campaign:

Trump is currently polling favorably at 1-2% with African Americans. "The blacks" that love him must be a white family named Black.

And even the white family named Black isn't certain any longer unless they're voters with no college education and the pollster only asks the man of the house. Maybe bringing on Roger Ailes will help with how women view The Donald. I'm assuming Trump supporters are fine with that tone deaf move as long as it helps some of the dismal polling numbers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us...iles.html?_r=0

And, just in case iTulip Trump supports missed it, he now supports trickle down economics, lower corporate taxes, eliminating the estate tax and pretty much everything else Grover Norquist and the US Chamber of Commerce wants to see. If you're worth $100MM or more, he's your guy, if not, I can't begin to understand the psychology of that decision.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-c...down-economics

The good news is that he lives in a separate reality and can only lose if the election is rigged.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...3a2_story.html

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

Enjoy your certitude and btw, were you quoting Yoda at the end? Made me laugh anyway.

Well, Santa. That's only fair. I laugh at every one of your posts.

Speaking of Yoda quotes, one comes immediately to mind: "Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering. I sense much fear in you."

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

woodsman, so bitter, so unhappy. hell hath no fury like a bernie bro scorned? i agree the system sucks. eventually it will self-destruct in one way or another, and perhaps trump will be the instrument of its destruction. but i'm very concerned about the collateral damage.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

woodsman, so bitter, so unhappy. hell hath no fury like a bernie bro scorned? i agree the system sucks. eventually it will self-destruct in one way or another, and perhaps trump will be the instrument of its destruction. but i'm very concerned about the collateral damage.

Et tu, JK?

Bitter and unhappy. You misjudge me; not at all. I'm a happy warrior and delighted to know I still have fight in me. Now could I wish for a better general, tell me what trooper couldn't?

You have a big net worth to guard, JK, and probably never had the stomach for much risk. I totally understand. But the folks I'm rooting for, most of them don't have two pennies to rub together and so I guess that makes them brave enough to take the gamble. You and Santa apparently have a lot to fear and that fear is precisely what the Democratic and Republican Party elites are counting on to keep the status quo going. So long as they have folks like you running scared, they sleep soundly.

I appreciate that not everybody can have moral courage, and the courage of their convictions least of all. And we are talking dollars and cents here, of course. It makes cowards of us all. Well, not all of us.

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

just read some background on that breitbart guy trump just brought in. an exponent of the alt-right white identity movement? you into that woodsman?

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

just read some background on that breitbart guy trump just brought in. an exponent of the alt-right white identity movement? you into that woodsman?

I am what I am. Hate to be the one to deliver the bad news. That racial jazz is all out of steam. People see it for the bludgeon it is and you should know better.

Turns out the color modern liberals care most about is green. And if they need a little brownwash for moral cover, all the better. Shame on you.