Trump to win?

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

except for certain concerns, i too would vote for trump if i thought he really would tear up the status quo. however i'm not at all convinced of that, especially looking at his list of potential supreme court appointees as well as his proposed tax policies. it appears he is now retracting all his radical policies in favor of republican reagan boiler plate. he now looks very status quo to me. my concerns revolve around the fact that i don't trust his judgement or his ability to restrain his impulses, and i'm amazed at his ignorance of world affairs.

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

here's today's column from maureen dowd- hillary is the republican candidate:

As Republican strategist Steve Schmidt noted on MSNBC, “the candidate in the race most like George W. Bush and Dick Cheney from a foreign policy perspective is in fact Hillary Clinton, not the Republican nominee.”

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

And this little gem:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/6/470657/-

Notice the source

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

here's today's column from maureen dowd- hillary is the republican candidate:

As Republican strategist Steve Schmidt noted on MSNBC, “the candidate in the race most like George W. Bush and Dick Cheney from a foreign policy perspective is in fact Hillary Clinton, not the Republican nominee.”

She can't help it. It's in her nature.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

here's today's column from maureen dowd- hillary is the republican candidate:

As Republican strategist Steve Schmidt noted on MSNBC, “the candidate in the race most like George W. Bush and Dick Cheney from a foreign policy perspective is in fact Hillary Clinton, not the Republican nominee.”

The day Maureen Dowd writes her last column will be a sad day for journalism. I don't agree with her quote above as Trump currently has almost no foreign advisors so we can't know which group he'd choose. We do know he's leaning hard right. He is clueless when it comes to FP, "I watch the shows...", he told Chuck Todd. He understands nothing about foreign policy. Her hawkish foreign policy is not my favorite attribute but worse than Cheney? Unlikely.

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

Who knows, while installing signs for Trump, a Clinton supporter might decide to drive over me as a means of expressing his distaste for the carried interest loophole? Or maybe I might mistakenly wander into a neighborhood where Democrats dominate and get my skull fractured by someone desirous of a $15 minimum wage increase? Or perhaps I'll canvass the wrong door and be doused with gasoline and set aflame by a Clinton supporter concerned about the fiscal impact of a cut to the estate tax? Maybe I'll be shot to death by a Democrat expressing her opposition to the Second Amendment? Anything could happen now since good and well meaning folk of liberal bent have determined that Trump is the reincarnation of Adolf Hitler (or Jack Kemp, shudder the thought), and so really who could blame them? It's a free country, right?

Your concerns are noted. I'd be grateful if you wouldn't mind taking a nanosecond to note mine as I've only repeated them about a dozen or so times and it seems I'm still having trouble making myself understood through the blinding rage that grips folks anxiously looking forward to Trump's "destruction." First things first. Upend the status quo in whatever way possible, then defeat Clinton. From there all things flow. I made that choice in spite of my personal policy preferences and in full knowledge of Trump's many defects. It's my little strategery, you see.

Your martyr fantasy aside, I don't think any of us supporting a $15 an hour minimum wage will douse you with gasoline. Most of us use as little traditional energy as possible. Neither will you be shot by a Democrat. We don't own guns but we have Republican friends and some of them let us shoot their guns, rifles if you will. An AR-15 is like a great sports car, it does not belong in the hands of the untrained. But most of us don't care that you have guns. We would however like it if you and your friends at the NRA allowed some minimal background checks.

There is no "blinding rage" on our side. We're concerned. We see Trump supporters as angry children. It's not easy to understand but we're responsible adults and when our children are making friends with people like The Donald and the NRA we will voice our opinion and we will not condone your tantrums. The rage is yours, now go to your room and when you can own it we'll talk.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

Sure, Santa. Clinton supporters have shown so much forbearance and good cheer to their fellow Americans across the aisle.

The fair play, the presumption of good intent, the bonhomie. Loving your neighbor is what your cohort does best.

Bloomfield police: Man beaten with crowbar for wearing Trump shirt

A 62-year-old male was assaulted in a Friendly's parking lot for wearing a Donald Trump T-shirt, Bloomfield police reported Tuesday. The victim was walking on West Passaic Avenue in Bloomfield at 5:41 p.m. Wednesday when a male in an older gray compact vehicle questioned him about his shirt of the Republican presidential candidate. The suspect directed profanities at the victim as he continued to follow the victim. The suspect followed the victim to the restaurant at 1243 Broad St. The suspect then approached the victim armed with a crowbar. An altercation occurred, with the suspect striking the victim several times, police said. The victim sustained injuries to his forearms, hands and thighs. He was treated at the scene. The suspect fled prior to police arrival, according to authorities.

And even here at iTulip, you Santa, are nothing if not respectful, thoughtful, and always, always argue to the facts. Why even now in this very conversation you do your side credit by evidencing such respect for me and your opposition, as do all Clinton supporters.

Ugly, bloody scenes in San Jose as protesters attack Trump supporters outside rally

Protests outside a Donald Trump rally in downtown San Jose spun out of control Thursday night when some demonstrators attacked the candidate’s supporters.



Protesters jumped on cars, pelted Trump supporters with eggs and water balloons, snatched signs and stole “Make America Great” hats off supporters’ heads before burning the hats and snapping selfies with the charred remains. Several people were caught on camera punching Trump supporters. At least one attacker was arrested, according to CNN, although police did not release much information.

It hardly feels as if we are at odds.

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

woody,

it's hard not to associate the candidates with the worst of their supporters- trump with white nationalists and clinton with the violent people you document. otoh- i haven't heard clinton being asked about whether she disavows such supporters only to avoid the question. i don't think reporters bother to ask her because we all know what she would say.

do you have any doubt about what she'd say? and how it would differ from the way trump has handled such questions?

but this is small[ish] ball. the issues are bigger than this, unfortunately.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

woody,

it's hard not to associate the candidates with the worst of their supporters- trump with white nationalists and clinton with the violent people you document. otoh- i haven't heard clinton being asked about whether she disavows such supporters only to avoid the question. i don't think reporters bother to ask her because we all know what she would say.

do you have any doubt about what she'd say? and how it would differ from the way trump has handled such questions?

but this is small[ish] ball. the issues are bigger than this, unfortunately.

I like the classy way Hillary praised KKK Kleagle and Exalted Cyclops Robert Byrd as her "mentor."

"The Klan is needed today as never before, and I am anxious to see its rebirth here in West Virginia." Byrd defended the Klan in his 1958 U.S. Senate campaign when he was 41 years old.[1]

"My old mom told me, ‘Robert, you can’t go to heaven if you hate anybody.’ We practice that. There are white ni**ers. I’ve seen a lot of white ni**ers in my time; I’m going to use that word. “We just need to work together to make our country a better country, and I’d just as soon quit talking about it so much.”

"Oh, but that's not fair," one might say. "It's guilt by association."

And besides, it's not as if the Clintons are apologists for a KKK member and tried to excuse his leadership role in a white nationalist terror organization merely to advance their political interests. Only a crumbum like Trump would stoop so low.

"He once had a fleeting association with the Ku Klux Klan and what does that mean? I’ll tell you what it means. He was a country boy from the hills and hollows of West Virginia. He was trying to get elected. Any maybe he did something he shouldn’t have done. And he spent the rest of his life making it up. And that’s what a good person does. There are no perfect people. There certainly are no perfect politicians.”

[DSpencer]

Re: Trump to win?

There is no "blinding rage" on our side. We're concerned. We see Trump supporters as angry children. It's not easy to understand but we're responsible adults and when our children are making friends with people like The Donald and the NRA we will voice our opinion and we will not condone your tantrums. The rage is yours, now go to your room and when you can own it we'll talk.

the Trumpster Fire will not win New Mexico. We only have 5 votes, but your guy is not getting them. This is not the election of 1800 or 1860 but to my mind it's close. No disrespect personally but I hope we crush your side. I don't want to win, I want to destroy your candidate.

Well you're right about one thing: It's not easy to understand that you're responsible adults

[vt]

Re: Trump to win?

Jill Stein goes on the attack of Hillary:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/15/politi...ils/index.html

[santafe2]

Re: Trump to win?

With 84 days left I thought I'd check in with that "discredited" 538 web site. Apparently it's not going well in Trumpland.

[Woodsman]

Re: Trump to win?

With 84 days left I thought I'd check in with that "discredited" 538 web site. Apparently it's not going well in Trumpland.

You are enjoying this, aren't you Santa? Schadenfreude becomes you.

It looks grim, but who gives a damn? Silver was running the same dodge in the primaries. I look forward to hearing his next explanation of "how we got it wrong" and his impending return to calling baseball games.

Still, if I let myself get philosophical about it, it's hard not to wonder where the Trumpsters would be in September without the GOP running with Clinton and Clinton running as a GOP candidate, with the media participating in the AM conference calls as a full-fledged member of the team. Oh yeah, and this.



And as far as Woodsman is concerned, half the strategery is going swimmingly.

First things first. Upend the status quo in whatever way possible, then defeat Clinton. From there all things flow. I made that choice in spite of my personal policy preferences and in full knowledge of Trump's many defects. It's my little strategery, you see.

So look where we are. We have the GOP irreparably split, the metastasizing of the Democratic Party into a union of neoconservative and neoliberal war criminals, and the outing of the media as a cheap john working the rough trade of the DC/NY/LA glory holes. That's pretty good for mid-August, if you ask any political anarchist.

But do enjoy your moment, Santa. I've had many like it in the day and I'm betting I still might get one more. And should it turn out instead to be one more disappointing election night, I had a few of those too and lived to tell the tale. Campaigns and elections are so fun they ought to be illegal, and funny enough, it turns out they usually are!

Full speed ahead. I have a suspicion we might actually see an inversion, and who knows? If that happens I bet you won't be able to find a soul the next morning who would admit they voted for Trump.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Trump to win?

Australia has mandatory voting. In Thailand it's illegal to take a selfie in the voting booth. Many countries like the UK have “election silence.”

Silver is interesting...

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articl...te-silver.html

[jk]

Re: Trump to win?

i am hesitant to believe the probabilities being generated by 538 and the nytimes. they are based on polling and i think there is a hidden-trump effect similar to the hidden-racist effect noted in elections with african-american candidates: they always garner 5% less than the polls would indicate, because of the number of people who won't admit they are voting against the black guy. otoh, i don't think there was this skew in either of obama's elections, so perhaps the hidden-racist vote is disappearing. nonethelss, my expectation is that trump wins roughly 5% more votes than the polls would predict. hillary is currently running 8-9% up nationally, so current numbers would still indicate a victory for her, but not the landslide some people are beginning to write about.