Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

[FRED]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

My Great Grannie could rant better than Orlov in his steady MONOTONE!!!!!

I would throw the FLAG us football style on this one and request an instant review by the REFEREE!!!!! He blew this call big time.

Orlov expressed well thought out opinions. Since when are Opinions banished to the Penalty Box?

If it is because he is WRONG, then let's have no more of Greenspan, Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, and all the other cronies, phonies and assorted expert dregs who brought this Disaster on and do not have a CLUE!!!!!

Americans have been living in a Dreamworld for the last thirty years. The shock of waking up leads to denial, incredulity and a desire to shut down the opinions of those who have known all along that the Dreamworld was a massive Fraud.

Turn off the TV, MSM, read some books about your history and the real America and get ready for Change, it ain't gonna get ready for you!

It's like rjwjr said, not up to our standards.

[krakknisse]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

The idea that the United States will break up into several smaller countrys or fall captive to an invasion by China and Mexico is laughable at best. You are calling the kettle black when you are your self a burnt frying pan.

One needs to weed out the rubbish from both sides of the political spectrum to get a clear veiw. Are we adopting some socialist social agendas? Of course. And it is about time. For too long we have allowed the elite rich to run roughshod over the working poor.
Are we turning into a mini Russia? Please. Perhaps a pre 1950's America. A modern version of 17th century Russia? No.

I cannot avoiding pointing out that this type of debate turns rapidly into ad hominem arguments. Or would johnw106 remind me exactly how I am "a burnt frying pan" and how this eloquent metaphor advances this debate?

We are not arguing over me, or Orlov's personality. We are arguing over the possible future paths of what is conventionally known as the Western world, in which the US plays a leading role.

The US is not going to split up into little countries.

Well, Fred, that's not Orlov's main argument.

Take a look at a map of Europe in 1900, and in 2000. Then think about all the huge economic and political changes that happened in that time period: the welfare state, universal suffrage, the labor movement, fascism, etc, etc. etc. I think a number of the posters in this thread imagine that the extraordinary post-WW2 period of peace and prosperity will continue indefinitely. I hope so, but am pretty sure not. You run the risk of being like Taleb's turkey: 1000 days of being fed every day - until the day of the slaughter. Extend your models just a little.

The US is still the largest, most successful by many measures, longest living federated state in recent history. It may very well pull through. But it _may_ creak at the seams. Even just a reduction in the scope of US empire would lead our kids to see a very different world - just think of the decades of Britain's declining empire. It would be, in a wide sense, "the end of the world as we know it" where the key word is "as we know it". The collapse of the Soviet Union wasn't the end of the world, but to a large proportion of the world's population it required significant changes in lifestyle, allegiances, world view, economics and politics.

You can scream and call me names all you want. But that's not going to change the strong impression - all across the world - that US hegemony is creaking in its seams, and this going to require adjustments on many levels. Maybe the US can get its shit together and return to being the beacon of freedom that I and many others would love it to be, but it sure doesn't look like it at the present moment. Place your chips gentlemen, because the ball is rolling.

[FRED]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

I cannot avoiding pointing out that this type of debate turns rapidly into ad hominem arguments. Or would johnw106 remind me exactly how I am "a burnt frying pan" and how this eloquent metaphor advances this debate?

We are not arguing over me, or Orlov's personality. We are arguing over the possible future paths of what is conventionally known as the Western world, in which the US plays a leading role.



Well, Fred, that's not Orlov's main argument.

Take a look at a map of Europe in 1900, and in 2000. Then think about all the huge economic and political changes that happened in that time period: the welfare state, universal suffrage, the labor movement, fascism, etc, etc. etc. I think a number of the posters in this thread imagine that the extraordinary post-WW2 period of peace and prosperity will continue indefinitely. I hope so, but am pretty sure not. You run the risk of being like Taleb's turkey: 1000 days of being fed every day - until the day of the slaughter. Extend your models just a little.

The US is still the largest, most successful by many measures, longest living federated state in recent history. It may very well pull through. But it _may_ creak at the seams. Even just a reduction in the scope of US empire would lead our kids to see a very different world - just think of the decades of Britain's declining empire. It would be, in a wide sense, "the end of the world as we know it" where the key word is "as we know it". The collapse of the Soviet Union wasn't the end of the world, but to a large proportion of the world's population it required significant changes in lifestyle, allegiances, world view, economics and politics.

You can scream and call me names all you want. But that's not going to change the strong impression - all across the world - that US hegemony is creaking in its seams, and this going to require adjustments on many levels. Maybe the US can get its shit together and return to being the beacon of freedom that I and many others would love it to be, but it sure doesn't look like it at the present moment. Place your chips gentlemen, because the ball is rolling.

EJ writes in:

I've read Orlov's book. He works so hard to find parallels between the US and the USSR to make his argument that he completely misses the essence of what America is not. America is nothing whatsoever like the old USSR; historically, culturally, legally, and in any other significant way. As a model for the future of America in crisis, he may as well start with China or Africa.

It's an entertaining read, though, full of great stories, such as driving around Russia with a case of vodka to use for barter to buy gasoline. Some of the details he covers do pertain to a future US, such as how cetain aspects of Soviet infrastructure were beneficial in the crisis and US infrastrucure, with its lack of public transportation, is ill suited.

The heart of his argument is that the Soviets were so used to hardship that the crash was only an added hardship by degree, whereas Americans are so accustomed to prosperity that they will not know how to cope with hardship, that a depression will be The End of the World.

The US is, unlike Europe or Russia, not composed of the descendants of ancient tribes with thousands of years of history among them, and cultural, religious, racial, ethnic, and language differences that its consitutents can readily identify. In the US, yes accents matter, education and where you went to college, and how much money you have, and we certainly have rich and poor neighborhoods and states, but cultural, religious, racial, ethnic, and language differences are not what divide us, and what divisions there are become quickly subsumed by our essential Americanism in crisis, the opposite of what Orlov argues.

I recommend it. Some day when I have time I'll review it.

[krakknisse]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

EJ writes in:
The US is, unlike Europe or Russia, not composed of the descendants of ancient tribes with thousands of years of history among them, and cultural, religious, racial, ethnic, and language differences that its consitutents can readily identify. In the US, yes accents matter, education and where you went to college, and how much money you have, and we certainly have rich and poor neighborhoods and states, but cultural, religious, racial, ethnic, and language differences are not what divide us, and what divisions there are become quickly subsumed by our essential Americanism in crisis, the opposite of what Orlov argues.

Thanks, EJ. Much appreciated. Let's not forget that one prime difference between the Soviet collapse and the potential collapse of significant aspects of Western civilization is in fact the rule of law, and a working market, which the Soviets didn't have. They had widespread corruption, and no price discovery. So the Soviets had a poorer base and collapse was inevitable.

But this point is precisely what really takes me to the brink of despair, and which you point out repeatedly, and I'm quite enamored with. The current crisis, and the response to it, is precisely the result of a political meddling with the best of Western civilization: price discovery and the rule of law. The corrupt and incompetent get more power, while price discovery (and its corrollary time preference of money) is getting quite rough treatment through monetary policy.

Perhaps Argentina, or similar financial crises, are a better starting analogy for the US than Russia. But if thing really go down the tube and there is an actual crash,
then I think Orlov has some valid points regarding the poor resilience of the US consumer vis a vis a crash.

[*T*]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

EJ writes in:

I've read Orlov's book. He works so hard to find parallels between the US and the USSR to make his argument that he completely misses the essence of what America is not. America is nothing whatsoever like the old USSR; historically, culturally, legally, and in any other significant way. As a model for the future of America in crisis, he may as well start with China or Africa.

It's an entertaining read, though, full of great stories, such as driving around Russia with a case of vodka to use for barter to buy gasoline. Some of the details he covers do pertain to a future US, such as how cetain aspects of Soviet infrastructure were beneficial in the crisis and US infrastrucure, with its lack of public transportation, is ill suited.

The heart of his argument is that the Soviets were so used to hardship that the crash was only an added hardship by degree, whereas Americans are so accustomed to prosperity that they will not know how to cope with hardship, that a depression will be The End of the World.

The US is, unlike Europe or Russia, not composed of the descendants of ancient tribes with thousands of years of history among them, and cultural, religious, racial, ethnic, and language differences that its consitutents can readily identify. In the US, yes accents matter, education and where you went to college, and how much money you have, and we certainly have rich and poor neighborhoods and states, but cultural, religious, racial, ethnic, and language differences are not what divide us, and what divisions there are become quickly subsumed by our essential Americanism in crisis, the opposite of what Orlov argues.

I recommend it. Some day when I have time I'll review it.

From an outsider's perspective, the race divide (white/black/hispanic) in the US runs as deep as many cultural divides in Europe.
I do feel that, when it comes to culture, EJ sees the US through slightly rose-tinted glasses.
More to the point though, I think the Craic Troll's comparison to the British empire is apt - a dissolution of hegemony abroad without territorial disintegration at home.

[rjwjr]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

It's like rjwjr said, not up to our standards.

Wow, I'm honored. My first-ever shout-out.

For what it's worth, I was viewing the video from the perspective of...
a] how can I make money using this information?,
b] how can I protect my assets using this information?

The ideas (and yes, to some extent the monotone presentation) caused me to decide very early in the video that this guy wasn't going to help me do either.

There is SOOOOO much good information on this site that I think we, as a community, need to be dilligent in calling-out the "bad" (defined as non-useful, non-relavent, not-worth-the-time) information when we see/read it. Granted, it was just my opinion, and others may disagree, but I was trying to provide a community service and in no way was I trying to disrespect Mega.

[goadam1]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

Do you imagine this, apparently you've read The Man in the High Castle....

And that was written while high on Acid.

[goadam1]

Re: Dmitry Orlov:- America will collaspe

Doom does make for a good parlor game.