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  • Could some kind soul explain this to me?

    This is from that "Tickerforum" guy:


    RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
    8:17 CT
    I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.
    Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.
    It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.
    At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.
    There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.
    Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."
    The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.
    To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.
    Unfortunately.
    I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night.

  • #2
    Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

    Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
    This is from that "Tickerforum" guy:


    RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
    8:17 CT
    I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.
    Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.
    It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.
    At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.
    There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.
    Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."
    The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.
    To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.
    Unfortunately.
    I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night.
    See this post from EJ

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

      Thank you. I'm not a subscriber however so I'm in the dark alas.
      Is there a short answer?

      OG

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

        Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
        Thank you. I'm not a subscriber however so I'm in the dark alas.
        Is there a short answer?

        OG
        Nobody is really clear on what's up, but something seems to be coming to a head. EJ's written in the past about a currency dislocation event, and how that what triggers such a thing and when, is unpredictable. Might be happening now/soon, but not clear to anyone here yet exactly what may have triggered this. We'll have to see what transpires when the markets in North America open after the long weekend...

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

          Originally posted by olivegreen View Post
          This is from that "Tickerforum" guy:


          RED ALERT: FX Dislocation In Process
          8:17 CT
          I do not know what is going on here, and I don't think I want to.
          Someone, apparently someone in Asia, wants dollars. A LOT of dollars. There is a forced-liquidation event underway that is massive, it is against all asset classes and it is spreading.
          It originated at approximately 7:15 CT this evening and originated out of Asia somewhere. All of the primary currency crosses got hit at once - Euro, Pound, Yen - all weakened dramatically against the dollar and it is still going on. The Asian stock markets got walloped at the same time in coordinated waves of forced selling.
          At the same time the US futures markets got nailed as well, down some six handles on the /ES in a near-vertical drop. While this sounds "not that big" to move these markets in a coordinated fashion like this is a trillion-dollar enterprise - this is not some small company that went bankrupt, or even a large company.
          There is no news coverage at the present time identifying the source of this but it is not small and contrary to some reports it is not "automatic selling"; this is forced liquidation.
          Folks, if this translates into Eastern Europe where there are severe instabilities already brewing literally everything in the financial world could come apart "all at once."
          The worse news is that if this happens Bernanke will have killed us (in the US) by extending those swap lines all over the planet during the last six months. These will become utterly uncollectable and they are massive, in the many hundreds of billions of dollars.
          To those who are reading this, I hope if you're in the markets you are prepared for extreme levels of violence. You must expect that the authorities will try to arrest the destruction if they are able, but you must also be prepared for the possibility that we have reached a "critical mass" point beyond which "duck and cover" is the only winning strategy.
          Unfortunately.
          I hope I'm wrong; this is going to be a long night.
          Well his hopes are probably justified ... probably he is wrong...

          The dollar has to go down in order to pass onto the ROW the housing +suprime + commodities madness losses. The dollar can spike up only whenever there is a bank implosion in the ROW. Probably, now there is a local Lehman approaching critical level somewhere in Asia (Japan or Korea) or in Europe.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

            Interesting piece here.........


            http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...ues-in-poland/

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

              Nice find Olivegreen. Thanks.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Could some kind soul explain this to me?

                Thank you all. I'm a little calmer now thanks to you all. When something is going on I can't understand I'm more nervous for some silly reason.

                Carry on

                OG

                Comment

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