Astrology and markets

[aaron]

Re: Astrology and markets

Thank you. I only drink the kool-aid that I see advertised on T.V. Not the stuff floating around in the stars.

[Guest]

Re: Astrology and markets

Aaron

You misunderstood me. My comment was a bit "tongue in cheek". If I'm to be frank, my view of your expressed opinion is that it is narrow, and rather uninquiring.

Thank you. I only drink the kool-aid that I see advertised on T.V. Not the stuff floating around in the stars.

[WDCRob]

Re: Astrology and markets

Well said Aaron, Metal. No sense humoring bunk.

The only people required to pretend both 'sides' of an 'argument' are equal are the national press corps.

[Supercilious]

Re: Astrology and markets

Astrology is b.s. HOWEVER, if enough people believe in the B.S. then it could affect the market. Do enough people believe in this crap on Wall Street for it to have predictive value?

So that would mean you believe Option3 may be true: a self-fulfilling prophecy created by unintended coordination of people who believe in astrology. Anecdotal evidence suggest that the use of astrology is quite widespread in high circles of investment.
Considering how many important politicians are using and have used astrological advice I wouldn't be surprised to find out that a lot of high power Bernies are following astrology based prediction.

Just think how many of our leaders are members of different fraternities (like Skull and Bones) or secret societies. If they are ready to participate in all kinds of silly rituals is not a stretch of imagination to think they would also be open to believe in astrological advice. Just think of how many believed in the CDO ratings provided by Fitch and Standard & Poors.


We are not ruled by a meritocracy, but by a (more or less) hereditary idiocracy. Everything is possible.

You presume that all possible explanations for the success of the Bradley model to be solidly predictive during this market crash are "right but only for the wrong reasons" (i.e. that implausible notion of things being consistently right "by chance").

No. I was just open to examine if astrology based predictions can be something more than jsut a monkey throwing darts. Some anecdotal seems to suggest that, but it;s very difficult to juge the quality of that information. If ye had for example the blog of an astrologers where we could find a clear track record of few years of predictions that prooved to be in proportion of more than 50% correct then ...

But I was not able to find such a source. Maybe someone else knows about such a source where the accuracy of astrological prediction can be demonstrated.

Compounding the hazard your range of alternative "rational" explanations are alternate explanations you put forward as unquestionable or "axiomatic"- such as "there are no predictive components possible for the markets in the natural world".

Nah, Lukester. I just put foward three possible logical explanations that could explain the astrological buzz in investment and market prediction.
This is what I could think of as an alternate to Saturn and Jupiter bumping up the GS stock by planetary influence. Probably there other logical explanations that I couldn't find and if anybody has a better idea I'm ready to listen.

Find one or two market students / analysts of some repute, who have made a study of how PHI numbers occur and re-occur in the markets with extraordinary precision and regularity at major market turns in various markets and that such curious coincidences span not just decades but centuries.

Fibonacci sequences and PHI numbers have nothing to do with Elliot waves or stars, and it's difficult to dismiss them completely (although I wouldn't guide my investment strategies beased on PHI or Fibonacci)

And if you scoff at the idea of recurrences of events in macro markets, stop to consider whether Bart's very long commodity / paper asset market waves, also copiously described by some rather robust other analysts such as D. Bensimon, or that Kondratieff guy describing very long economic cycle waves, are all specious nonsense.

Lukester you got it wrong here. For example, I accept the Jevons hypotheses for the 11 year cycle. Yes, if sunspot have a roughly 11 years cyclical behavior and since the presence of sunspots influences agricultural yields, I can understand how subtle fluctuations in crop yields can influence the markets and the economy. (Incidentally this year in September it was a minimum for sunspots).

My problem is that I can't see why other cycles like the Kondratieff wave can create more than a general trend. If you come with an explanation that every 60 years or so, the sun emits more leptons. miuons and morons that make people with money more stupid then usual, then I would accept the deterministic effect of the Kondratieff wave.

Try phrasing your possible "explanations" for Crawford's method in slightly less patronising terms conformat to your notions of "rationalism" and you'll drift a little closer to some interesting insights.

Hey, I gave my rational deterministic explanations. If someone else has another well argumented explanation (deterministic or not) I'm ready to listen.

He was a straight market technician on Wall Street for many years before he incorporated the astrological components and was trained strictly as a conventional market technician. Evidently he discovered some components elsewhere which became very intriguing

Luke I can accept that a guy who did a lot of technical analysis can find a refuge and certainty in astrology. If I had to choose only between TA and astrology, I would always chose astrology, because I would have at least a slim chance to get it right.

You noticed that Arch Crawford is consistently reading the tealeaves better than a lot of other sources. To grudgingly concede that he's right a lot more often than he's wrong, such that the Hulbert Digest ranks him above many dozens of other very astute analysts who are currently baffled by market moves, means what he's toying around with deserves more than your rote litany of dismissive interpretations. You express genuine curiosity, but you say he must be right "for the wrong reasons". This presumes upon this analysts intelligence and the stringency of his original analytic training (decades of it prior to astrology) and I suggest that such patronizing a-priori presumptions most often do not constitute any genuine inquiry at all.

That is my problem. It seems there are quite a few guys out there getting it right consistently and they say in the open or in private they are using astrology. Crawford is just one of the few guys who publicly acknowledges it.

[c1ue]

Re: Astrology and markets

You're also forgetting the survivor bias: maybe Crawford is the one in 100,000 astrologers over the past 10 years who coincidentally was right.

After all, there is always one correct outcome - and enough attempts will likely hit upon it.

But I'll retreat into my chicken example: In Taiwan, there is a temple with a chicken in it. At the height of the Taiwanese stock bubble, that chicken made a lot of people a lot of money.

Since then, it has done poorly - in fact died (eaten?) and replaced several times.

But in this case, it was quite understandable why the chicken did well in the bubble. By definition, there are more small companies than large ones. By chance, the chicken tends to pick small companies. In a bubble, the small companies grow faster than the large ones - and their valuations rise more.

Once the bubble pops, the law of averages now works against the chicken's pecking.

But of course maybe Crawford has some special secret. But one year's performance doesn't mean squat.

What has he done over the past 10 years? And why? And why does an astrologer use technical analysis? This is some wierd voodoo kind of stock picking amalgamation.

I'd be really interested to hear how 'head and shoulder' formations were used in astrology prior to the stock market. Perhaps Zoroastrians used it to predict the weather?

[Guest]

Re: Astrology and markets

WDC Rob - before you come off all categorical in the dismissiveness be very very sure you've got the sum of all possible data at hand. I don't have the sum of all data. I surmise you don't have it either. I'm dismissing nothing. You are making broad dismissals. I've seen a ten year log of market turns called where every last major market turn corresponded to a unique cluster of PHI ratios and Fibonacci corresponding ratios to prior large market turns. The array of logged data was unequivocal. No fudging. Just A, B, C, D, E, F major turns in the markets landing within 1-2 days of the PHI cluster dates. I will dig them up and post them here next weekend, although they contravene the publishing rights of their author, I'll include them here for some of you supremely self-assured pundits to scrutinize.

When you think you are landing solidly on the side of "reason, empiricism, and sound method" - that's when you need to take a careful look around to make sure you are not wearing blinders. In this case, you most definitely are. The haughtiest dismissers are the most grievous, as they really don't know what the crap they are talking about on this question, because they evidently have not even stumbled across the data that is so stunningly intriguing on this question. The world is more full of mysteries that have an entirely factual basis than most plodding "rationalists" seem willing to grapple with. Think of the humble telephone or telegraph. When it was first proposed, it's proponents were dismissed as snake oil salesmen. Today we smile commiseratingly at the primitive level of understanding which led to such dismissals because understanding how a phone works is banal science.

What is being pointed out to you here, is that an empirical and minutely tracked log of elapsed market action has highs and lows all pegging in precisely on PHI and Fibonacci correspondent dates across long periods of time. I shit you not. The fibonacci numbers come in perfectly and precisely relative to Jan 17th 2000 (the absolute top in the DOW in inflation adjusted terms) for all the subsequent major highs and lows - absolute bottom in 2002. Absolute top in 2007, and dozens of secondary tops and bottoms in between are all arranged in stunningly tight PHI and Fibonacci ratios to the previous January 2000 top. I am not a "waver", and I've been posting caricatures of the Elliott Wave crowd here quite a few times. But I am completely agnostic. When I see "random" market action observing precise fibonacci ratios at all it's high and low points relative to the largest turn dates, I get curious about those symmetries.

I will post some of these and let the presumably industrious skeptics do all their own market digging to ascertain whether those numbers can remotely be described as arbitrary. My observation here is that those sounding most categorical in their dismissals that all reality must conform to pure randomness, will likely be highlighted as having been most inadequately armed to decipher the implications of these raw data logs. A solid methodology scrutinizes ANY data very carefully before embarking in blanket dismissals. Meantime, has anyone issuing these lofty dismissals scrutinized squat here? By the categorical nature of these remarks, methinks rather not.

Well said Aaron, Metal. No sense humoring bunk.

The only people required to pretend both 'sides' of an 'argument' are equal are the national press corps.

[FRED]

Re: Astrology and markets

This thread was moved here to Rant and Rave because Astrology has no place here.

iTulip is about rationalism, while acknowledging that vested interests can hijack markets and economies for periods of time, producing less than rational results -- i.e., asset bubbles.

In some markets a collective belief in magic such as Astrology may have relevance for some investors, but not for us.

We choose to spend our time on more serious subjects that produce results.

iTulip's record did not arise from magic but logic, observation, and analysis.

Anyone who'd like to dig into the value of Astrology in making investment decisions is welcome to -- on their own site. Not here.

[Guest]

Re: Astrology and markets

Kool. It wuz a real fun topic - lots of probingly inquiring inputs from contributors (just disregard the spontaneous proliferation of declarative statements). BTW - the point was not about "astrology, does it have any influence in the markets" - the underlying point was whether commenters here actually have the authoritative grasp of markets to make such categorical assertions at all to begin with. Seems by the supremely "well grounded" nature of the responses, that we have a lot of Einsteins and assorted other visionary polymaths here. :rolleyes:

What is the difference between an agnostic and an atheist? The agnostic is likely the smarter of the two. A determined agnosticism however employed on this particular topic, becomes intolerable to anyone leanig on generic definitions of "rationalism". "We stand for rationalism". Eh? What does that mean? It does not appear to this reader, to amount to more than generic fence mending, attempting the impossible task of defining the boundaries of what really is rational. Sorry, the dismissals appear almost as flim flam as the caricature they seek to debunk. You guys have not read the full script on this topic.

Here's a pithy little question - Is the definition of generic "rationalism" demarcated in any iTulip "reference manual" somewhere? No? Wonder why? Maybe because defining it's limits on all topics discussed here would be a fruitless task. I would feel Godlike to have attained such probing insight of the clear confines or demarcations of "rationalism". I'll post those fibonacci and Phi pairing logs here - this is elapsed market data - all these turn points dance in unmistakeable ratios around January 17th 2000, and of course that is just one large turning point among many. The elapsed market data and those elapsed Phi numbers are all easily verifiable. It "is what it is" so to speak.

Then the hidebound iTuliper's can do whatever the heck they want with it. - up to and including being offended by "trashy paradoxes". :p

I guarantee a few of the intelligent and more curious readers would sniff out an underlying real story here, but studied incuriosity has killed that cat. And if their intelligent and inquiring curiosity is not piqued, frankly, who cares? People are free to corral themselves into whatever belief systems they desire. The existence of precise Fibonacci and Phi numbers at all key turning points is beyond dispute. It's right there in the data.

THIS THINGY EXISTS IN THE ELAPSED MARKET ACTION, BUT ONE NEEDS TO TAKE OFF THE COOKIE CUTTER SPECTACLES TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE AVALANCHE OF ELAPSED DATA THAT CONFIRMS IT:



A Fibonacci spiral created by drawing arcs connecting the opposite corners of squares in the Fibonacci tiling; this one uses squares of sizes 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and 34; see Golden spiral

This thread was moved here to Rant and Rave because Astrology has no place here. iTulip is about rationalism, while acknowledging that vested interests can hijack markets and economies for periods of time, producing less than rational results -- i.e., asset bubbles. In some markets a collective belief in magic such as Astrology may have relevance for some investors, but not for us. We choose to spend our time on more serious subjects that produce results. iTulip's record did not arise from magic but logic, observation, and analysis. Anyone who'd like to dig into the value of Astrology in making investment decisions is welcome to -- on their own site. Not here.

Fred is worried and doing some housekeeping here because iTulip has a "reputation to uphold" for "rationalism". QUOTE: "Anyone who'd like to dig into the value of Astrology in making investment decisions is welcome to -- on their own site. Not here". Sounds almost as though we'd posted some pornography on this thread? ;)

[Nervous Drake]

Re: Astrology and markets

There's enough crazy shit out there that both astrology and aliens can just be completely shunned from one's head else to be distracted from reality.

Honestly, if everybody had high self esteem and went through life with complete confidence in every decision they made because of their absolute center with their personal reality and destiny, astrology could maybe define some things.

But the world is not so.

[Supercilious]

Re: Astrology and markets

Fred is worried and doing some housekeeping here because iTulip has a "reputation to uphold" for "rationalism". QUOTE: "Anyone who'd like to dig into the value of Astrology in making investment decisions is welcome to -- on their own site. Not here". Sounds almost as though we'd posted some pornography on this thread? ;)

Lukester, I believe this is unfair. This is not wikipedia, it's a private site, and if the owners decide that discussing astrology is something counterproductive for the business it is their right to do so.

I just wanted to investigate what's the scoop behind the rumors of astrology being used (or consulted) in some top notch investment outfits, but I know nothing about the subject astrological amrket prediction and I want to get to the bottom of this .

Therefore I would like any iTulipers that are more experienced in the field of astrology to contact me in private if they are willing to help by pointing me to sources of what they consided good quality stuff in the field.

I'm very interested in the astrological views of the "true nature of the economic cycles".

I beleive the public discussion on this thread should stop as Fred declared that iTulip is not a place were astrology should be discussed.

[rros]

Re: Astrology and markets

iTulip's record did not arise from magic but logic, observation, and analysis.

The entire body of knowledge of Astrology is based on this and some of the greatest minds of the past devoted timeless hours to observation, analysis and logic even when it meant risking their lives. If you think of it as magic, then you should re-read some of the real manuscripts from the past or even current work done on the field of psychology/astrology. Most serious professionals do not believe in a causation, but in a synchronicity type of mirroring a-la-Carl Jung.

And I do not mean the BS divination from newspapers and magazines that we know today -corner to where Astrology got intentionally relegated by Popes and Church back in the middle ages- but the more thorough compendiums that began to be translated not so long ago such as the work from Jean-Baptiste Morin, literature in sanskrit and greek and even further back in time, including egyptian treatises. Having read thousands, not hundreds of charts in a span of a few decades, I am inclined to give it a little credit provided the interpretation sticks to motives and not events.

However, I cannot imagine how anyone would use this system of beliefs to forecast markets. That would be insane in my book.

[Supercilious]

Re: Astrology and markets

However, I cannot imagine how anyone would use this system of beliefs to forecast markets. That would be insane in my book.

It may be insane in your book but in other cultures it is considered normal. Since no astrologer has contacted me about some good sources of financial astrology, I've started the search on my own.

http://www.commodityonline.com/astro...ssure-201.html

Astrology: Predictions 23 Dec 2008
Rupee likely to face more pressure
 As per financial astrology today, Saturn is in Singh Rashi, Mars , Mercury and Sun are in Dhanu Rashi while Jupiter, Venus and Rahu are in Makar rashi. Moon is in Tula Rashi .All these combinations may lead to positive movement in Sugar in Indian future and spot market. Expected Sugar at NCDEX - resistance Jan future -1935, 1945, 1965 and Support levels -1900, 1888 and 1975.  Indian stock market may show volatility Investors may keep eyes on Cairn India, MTNL, for short term trading.  Mentha oil is expected to show flat to negative trend in Indian future market.  Red Chilli may show weak move in physical and future market.  Indian rupee may show flat movement against US dollar. Predictions are based on financial astrology. Investors may go through their personal horoscope also before taking any decisions.

Actually this sounds to me much logical than any technical analysis in commodities I've seen and most probably is far more accurate the prediction Goldman Sachs made this summer for $200-250/bbl oil by the end of 2008

[we_are_toast]

Re: Astrology and markets

This thread was moved here to Rant and Rave because Astrology has no place here.

iTulip is about rationalism, while acknowledging that vested interests can hijack markets and economies for periods of time, producing less than rational results -- i.e., asset bubbles.

In some markets a collective belief in magic such as Astrology may have relevance for some investors, but not for us.

We choose to spend our time on more serious subjects that produce results.

iTulip's record did not arise from magic but logic, observation, and analysis.

Anyone who'd like to dig into the value of Astrology in making investment decisions is welcome to -- on their own site. Not here.

Clearly you are a Leo who was born when Jupiter was rising in Libra.

You're temper is short, with a low tolerance for those who value emotion above reason. Your friends are sometimes aloof when you show them charts of M2 and bank reserves.

The feeling of contempt for your fellow workers will soon be replaced by respect as they finally help you balance your checkbook.

2009 will bring hardship to your bank account, but you will be lucky in love.

Your employer is a great philanthropist, and will keep you employed.

The career change you have been thinking about will be fulfilled by the end of the year. Leaving the world of money behind for the hamster ranch in Montana will finally bring you contentment.

The charges of plagiarism filed by Jim Cramer will finally be resolved by summer.

You will be dissappointed once again as Larry Kudlow does not call you for an interview.



May your Pisces find an Aquarius and your Leo not get stung by a Scorpio, and have a great 2009.

[Spartacus]

Re: Astrology and markets

So, what iTulipers believe about stuff like this?

Any other ideas or opinions?

I greatly prefer reading chicken entrails for predicting the future.

Not only is it FAR more accurate (far, FAR more accurate[*] ) than astrology,

but when you're done, your lunch is ready.


Tea leaves are good for prediction too [**]




did I mention it's more accurate?
[*] and unbelievably more reliable

Oh, and before I forget, it's more accurate too

[**] and when you're done, you can drink the tea. Should i mention how much more accurate they are, compared to astrology?

[kingcopper]

Re: Astrology and markets

I'd visit Martin Armstrong's musings to fully understand the waves, the cycles, and astrology.

www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

This cat might be a freak but he'll teach you what you are looking for symbols.