EJ's next bubble

[a warren]

Re: EJ's next bubble

Yeah, he contributes nothing and his self satisfied delusions waste my time

[Louie.G]

Re: EJ's next bubble

For what it is worth, I think the brief article indicates that the company went broke because of "other problems" rather than primarily the industry it chose to be in.

Selling 1.6 billion barrels of oil in a market where you are paying twice the current price for a barrel, and have almost a buck a barrel of debt on your books, is not conducive to market survival. So the same for these guys.

I would thus suggest that their troubles would be more an internal operational problem than a market segment selection issue.

[Nervous Drake]

Re: EJ's next bubble

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[Supercilious]

Re: EJ's next bubble

see, the way we know you are a troll is that you never have anything positive to say about the the ideas we have all developed here. only your ideas are valid, and we're all wrong. you pretend to engage in actual discussion but it's all designed to try to discredit the work we all do here.

and you post lies, such as this thread.

what do you think, folks? time to lose the troll yet?

That is not true metalman.
There were quite a few instances when I agreed with EJ and Fred, for example in the case of future Russia collapse, future industrialization (the one unrelated to the Alt-E bubble) etc. And I have acknowledged in public my support of those calls.

And I'm really not hunting Fred or EJ. Look at what happen with the TIPS yield discussion. When Finster explained clearly why Fred was wrong in considering high TIPS yields as a sign of deflation I didn't intervened myself exposing another flawed assumption. Finster did a pretty good job enlightening Fred, and my intervention would have done nothing else then produce an useless emotional reaction for defending the faith.

[Supercilious]

Re: EJ's next bubble

Hey $#*, I have no doubt that you guys are intelligent enough to have your own framework of how the economy works. It's pretty awesome that you are willing to bounce that against the Itulip's model. I try not to be a North Korean sensitive Britney Spears fan but hey, I just think EJ continuously puts out quality articles that explain things very clearly. I just like his style and feel like he is right about a lot of things waaaay before they happen.

Nervous Drake, I'm relieved you did not take my sarcasm as an offensive manner. It was not intended.

My point was underlining the unsolved issue of the Oil Bubble. EJ's call of Alt-E bubble at the beginning of a Cheap Peak Oil phase is absolutely correct. I happen to believe that Alt-E bubble cannot happen now because we had an Oil Bubble not a a real Peak Cheap Oil, but when the real deal comes with scarce energy and all that jazz the Alt -E bubble will happen for sure.

Now about EJ's calls. I hope you realize that all those who are scrutinizing continuously EJ's views and calls are actually making a huge service to the cause of figuring exactly what happens. If a theory can stand to continuous questioning and reevaluation ... it must be good.

I beleive that people don't come on iTulip just to praise EJ as The One who is Allways Right, but to get the best understanding of what is happening even if EJ has to redraw some of his analyses. Nobody is perfect. Only frauds pretend to be allways perfect, and I have yet to see a message form EJ telling me to stop questioning his insights

Maybe there are other ways to do it. Maybe you've got it figured out. If you can get into such minute detail about things that you can take a news article about an alternative energy company going bust and sarcastically debunk EJ's whole thesis, go for it dude. Let's hear some more.

ND, when I'll decide to open a site similar to iTulip or to write newletter (on a subcription) basis I'll try to ofer detailed articles like EJ writes.

[Nervous Drake]

Re: EJ's next bubble

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[seanm123]

Re: EJ's next bubble

the call was recession then infrastructure recovery. dead on. his forecast has not changed. pay attention.

EJ prediction is spot on if the Obama gets in, he plans on funding Alt-Energy development from a Cap and Trade program to pay for it, also promises to make it tougher than the European Allowances (EUAs) carbon emissions program.

Obama:
Let me sort of describe my overall policy.
What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else’s out there.
I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.
So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.
That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches.
The only thing I’ve said with respect to coal, I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a (sic) ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.


Link to youtube audio from an Obama interview.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4o...ml?q=blogs/p-j

[FRED]

Re: EJ's next bubble

That is not true metalman.
There were quite a few instances when I agreed with EJ and Fred, for example in the case of future Russia collapse, future industrialization (the one unrelated to the Alt-E bubble) etc. And I have acknowledged in public my support of those calls.

And I'm really not hunting Fred or EJ. Look at what happen with the TIPS yield discussion. When Finster explained clearly why Fred was wrong in considering high TIPS yields as a sign of deflation I didn't intervened myself exposing another flawed assumption. Finster did a pretty good job enlightening Fred, and my intervention would have done nothing else then produce an useless emotional reaction for defending the faith.

That case is not yet closed. We have an analysis expected in from John Serrapere. His analysis shows that the spread has a negative correlation to 6 and 12 month forward CPI. Stay tuned!

[bill]

Re: EJ's next bubble

EJ prediction is spot on if the Obama gets in, he plans on funding Alt-Energy development from a Cap and Trade program to pay for it, also promises to make it tougher than the European Allowances (EUAs) carbon emissions program.

Obama:
Let me sort of describe my overall policy.
What I’ve said is that we would put a cap and trade system in place that is as aggressive, if not more aggressive, than anybody else’s out there.
I was the first to call for a 100% auction on the cap and trade system, which means that every unit of carbon or greenhouse gases emitted would be charged to the polluter. That will create a market in which whatever technologies are out there that are being presented, whatever power plants that are being built, that they would have to meet the rigors of that market and the ratcheted down caps that are being placed, imposed every year.
So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted.
That will also generate billions of dollars that we can invest in solar, wind, biodiesel and other alternative energy approaches.
The only thing I’ve said with respect to coal, I haven’t been some coal booster. What I have said is that for us to take coal off the table as a (sic) ideological matter as opposed to saying if technology allows us to use coal in a clean way, we should pursue it.


Link to youtube audio from an Obama interview.




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdi4o...ml?q=blogs/p-j

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...33297#poststop

This is not a wind mill factory.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN...y_2410081.html

[Supercilious]

Re: EJ's next bubble

That case is not yet closed. We have an analysis expected in from John Serrapere. His analysis shows that the spread has a negative correlation to 6 and 12 month forward CPI. Stay tuned!

Well if someone can provide a well argumented analysis showing clearly that you were right and Finster was wrong on the subject of TIPS yields, I'm ready to listen.

Meanwhile, in order to go back to the subject of this thread (IMHO, trolls like metalman always sent threads off topic with their interventions that provoke a strong emotional response ) two interesting bits of information:

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/...r-with-economy

The lower oil goes, the more un-economic alternative energy sources become. Check out the chart below:

(Chart from Credit Suisse, via Nyquist Capital)
As you can see, at these levels, a range of options stop being profitable. Drop down a little more, and even gas-to-liquid, one of the more realistic energy solutions (in the short to medium term) stops being worthwhile.
The Wall Street Journal has more, noting that it's not just the fall in oil, but also the contraction in available credit that's hurting the industry. Those big solar installations and wind fields take cash, and lots of it:
U.S. wind-farm developers, which have commitments to build a record number of projects in 2009, are also scrambling for alternative sources of credit after the troubles of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and American International Group Inc., both of which were big lenders to the green-energy sector, says Eric Silverman, a partner at law firm Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy LLP in New York.
"The credit crunch deals a negative blow to the whole [wind] sector because it's heavily dependent on debt financing," he says.
General Electric Co.'s GE Energy Financial Services, another major investor in U.S. wind-farm development, is cutting back outlays because the credit crisis has made it difficult to price investments. "This is a very tough market for any investor," says Andrew Katell, a spokesman for GE Energy Financial Services. "Everyone is impacted."

And some news from the Goldman "experts":
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20...334455830/1001

A parade of analysts at investment banks have also turned bearish on oil prices.
Goldman Sachs, the US bank that earlier warned of US$200 oil, has joined peers that now regard $50 as a more likely near-term price for a barrel of crude.

“We have underestimated the depth and duration of the global financial crisis and its implications [for] economic growth and commodity demand,” a team of Goldman commodity analysts led by Jeffrey Currie and Giovanni Serio, wrote yesterday in a research report. “Should the financial and evolving economic crisis cut deeper into [oil] demand, the market could fall as low as $50 a barrel,” the analysts said.

The analysts predicted that $50 oil could become a reality as early as December.

[FRED]

Re: EJ's next bubble

Well if someone can provide a well argumented analysis showing clearly that you were right and Finster was wrong on the subject of TIPS yields, I'm ready to listen.

Meanwhile, in order to go back to the subject of this thread (IMHO, trolls like metalman always sent threads off topic with their interventions that provoke a strong emotional response ) two interesting bits of information:

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/10/...r-with-economy


And some news from the Goldman "experts":
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20...334455830/1001

What is your explanation for rising TIPS yields falling when inflation expectations were falling 2001 to 2004 and rising TIPS yields rising when inflation expectations were rising 2004 until the credit crisis hit in early 2007? Then from 2007 to 2008 TIPS yields behaved differently; they fell when inflation expectations were falling, then spiked when the were falling even more, then went ballistic when they fell even more. Obviously TIPS yields have not been reacting to inflation expectations during the credit crisis as before. We have a theory as to why. What's yours? You go first.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: EJ's next bubble

A parade of analysts at investment banks have also turned bearish on oil prices.
Goldman Sachs, the US bank that earlier warned of US$200 oil, has joined peers that now regard $50 as a more likely near-term price for a barrel of crude.

Well, there are 2 possibilities which make me cautiously optimistic on oil prices:
1. GS economists are total idiots and had it wrong at the $200 prediction and now are going to blow the $50 prediction.
2. They were talking their books to exit the oil trade at $147 and now they want to enter as low as possible.

It would be intersting to know what smart money is doing now. GRG55 thinks it's a screaming buy now. I'm not selling my energy yet. For disclosure, I sold my energy in May and reentered back in early October. Ouch! way too early!

[metalman]

Re: EJ's next bubble

Well, there are 2 possibilities which make me cautiously optimistic on oil prices:
1. GS economists are total idiots and had it wrong at the $200 prediction and now are going to blow the $50 prediction.
2. They were talking their books to exit the oil trade at $147 and now they want to enter as low as possible.

It would be intersting to know what smart money is doing now. GRG55 thinks it's a screaming buy now. I'm not selling my energy yet. For disclosure, I sold my energy in May and reentered back in early October. Ouch! way too early!

on the first point i disagree. just because gs is stupid on the way up doesn't mean they''ll be stupid on the way down. if making $$$ were as easy as shorting gs advice we'd all be rich.

the second point is spot on. gs are ALWAYS talking their book. what are they saying about the dollar? let me guess... they're long now.

[jk]

Re: EJ's next bubble

What is your explanation for rising TIPS yields falling when inflation expectations were falling 2001 to 2004 and rising TIPS yields rising when inflation expectations were rising 2004 until the credit crisis hit in early 2007? Then from 2007 to 2008 TIPS yields behaved differently; they fell when inflation expectations were falling, then spiked when the were falling even more, then went ballistic when they fell even more. Obviously TIPS yields have not been reacting to inflation expectations during the credit crisis as before. We have a theory as to why. What's yours? You go first.

i think you need to chart the SPREAD between the tips and the straight bond yields. if ALL interest rates were going down, so will tips yields, without telling you much about longer term inflation expectations in the absence of info on the SPREAD.

[Supercilious]

Re: EJ's next bubble

Well, there are 2 possibilities which make me cautiously optimistic on oil prices:
1. GS economists are total idiots and had it wrong at the $200 prediction and now are going to blow the $50 prediction.
2. They were talking their books to exit the oil trade at $147 and now they want to enter as low as possible.

I believe the first possibility is definitely correct. The $50/bbl prediction may be as wrong at the $200/bbl. I'm not saying that oil cannot get to $50/bbl in a moment of volatility but it shouldn't stay there for long.
The nice part is that, as i previously explained, for big boys like Goldman the Index Investment toy makes good money regardless if the oil is going up or down. For them it's a win-win game while for the bulk of their gullible investors is a loose-loose game

It would be intersting to know what smart money is doing now.

I guess that smart money right now are buying into the next batch of goodies that will bring them huge profits. This is what smart money always does. For the closest thing to smart money one can look at Warren Buffett, but no one should mistake buying common GE stock with the preferred stock/bond deal sir Warren got.

GRG55 thinks it's a screaming buy now.

GRG55 knows a lot about energy. I'm not sure the time to buy has arrived yet, but I believe that he is basically right. (and Lukester... no that has nothing to do with Peak Oil)

For disclosure, I sold my energy in May and reentered back in early October. Ouch! way too early!

Ouch!