Knowing what to do

[olivegreen]

Re: Knowing what to do

well now... the thing is there is truth to this cut-throat reality obviously. It is truth and I can't condemn anyone for speaking the truth really. I might even say I appreciate the honesty. All I can do is make my own personal choices.

Would we be in this credit crisis if this type of personality didn't exist in the mainstream in the financial industry? Its the way it is. I don't think you can make a leopard change its spots, nor would I at the end of the day, want to try. To each his own. Buffett e.g. could very well be a raving maniac out of the spotlight. What do we know of what goes on behind closed doors?

I'm just off worrying about this Russian situation now. This is my way of trying to change the topic because I appreciate each and everyone on this forum, the good, the bad and ugly and would hate to see bad feelings arise because of all this.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Knowing what to do

well now... the thing is there is truth to this cut-throat reality obviously. It is truth and I can't condemn anyone for speaking the truth really. I might even say I appreciate the honesty. All I can do is make my own personal choices.

In summary, the premise is that the world of money is brutish, with few rules, and those only weakly enforced. It's important to remember this because you are bombarded daily by massive and sophisticated campaigns of persuasion that have the single purpose of relieving you of your precious capital. The obvious remedy is the one that you have already come to: Develop your own financial expertise, so that you can place the greatest part of your trust in your own judgment.

...I appreciate each and everyone on this forum, the good, the bad and ugly and would hate to see bad feelings arise because of all this.

Rest assured that the regular contributors who have replied to your thread are playing true to their roles. Any bad feelings surfaced many months ago, and the sniping here is best thought of as akin to a well-practiced quarrel between an old married couple: slightly unpleasant, a bit tedious, but mostly harmless.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Knowing what to do

In summary, the premise is that the world of money is brutish, with few rules, and those only weakly enforced. It's important to remember this because you are bombarded daily by massive and sophisticated campaigns of persuasion that have the single purpose of relieving you of your precious capital. The obvious remedy is the one that you have already come to: Develop your own financial expertise, so that you can place the greatest part of your trust in your own judgment.


Rest assured that the regular contributors who have replied to your thread are playing true to their roles. Any bad feelings surfaced many months ago, and the sniping here is best thought of as akin to a well-practiced quarrel between an old married couple: slightly unpleasant, a bit tedious, but mostly harmless.

The other thing about trying to learn to manage your own wealth is that if do well you can feel good about your luck, and if you lose you don't go around harboring ill feelings for someone who might have been making money off you while you were losing. When you can accept the blame, it should serve as an incentive to try not to make same errors next time.

[Spartacus]

Re: Knowing what to do

Is there some hint in your and Sap's messages as to why you are so anonymous? The hint to me is if I knew who either of you were, I am rather sure I wouldn't do any business with either of you.

Jim, Clue's point as I read it is something that Eric (or one of the FREDs) once wrote, "Jocks and Geeks"

[metalman]

Re: Knowing what to do

Jim,

I don't employ these practices as a personal choice.

However, I equally am not a power broker in any company.

I did see the path before me and the tactics used to get on and remain on that path, but simply refused to become that type of person.

However, I did come away with a very up close and personal understanding of executive behavior.

What I outlined previously is exactly what I saw in every instance in the multiple market leading firms I worked in with the following exception:

Original leadership that founded the firm still in place

This is assuming the original leaders aren't ALSO that type of person. Unfortunately in the range of human ability, there are those who both can play the political game and also are brilliant technical types.

As for anonymity - you are safely retired.

I am not.

I don't need the government nor potential predators/competitors to know who I am.

I'm not trying very hard to hide, but neither am I laying myself out.

even if jim wasn't retired, jim has never worked for a corp. so he doesn't think about things like a not-so-friendly underling or co-worker doing a google search and coming up with a rant on itulip that might not be politically kosher in the corprit culcha. if jim was still working and not retired a customer found one of his send the psychos into congress posts they might go find another dentist. then again, that may attract so many customers he'd need to expand his practice

[ocelotl]

Re: Knowing what to do

even if jim wasn't retired, jim has never worked for a corp. so he doesn't think about things like a not-so-friendly underling or co-worker doing a google search and coming up with a rant on itulip that might not be politically kosher in the corprit culcha. if jim was still working and not retired a customer found one of his send the psychos into congress posts they might go find another dentist. then again, that may attract so many customers he'd need to expand his practice

All in all, the discussion of Jim vs c1ue and Sap relates to the disclosure limits oneself puts. Jim, you have been open about you and your thoughts, but some of us can't feel very secure disclosing particular details that may or may not guide someone else to know who we really are and how much could we be really worth.

There are wolves out there trying to eat some of us alive, and we may better keep watching out and stepping out of their radar for our own safety.

OG. I've also found it confusing, at first I also held concepts induced by MSM and bank people. To dominate investing we must read a lot, I begun with fixed rate CD's, as I've learnt, I've moved my money, depending on the thesis I've developed. As the thesis proved faulty and had to be improved, money has moved accordingly. First, I just checked thing every now and then, then monthly, then weekly. By now I take an hour check every day just to see how it all is developing...

Developing our own thesis, according to our particular conditions, is the most important thing here. Reading all available information over here is valuable on the development of the own thesis. Apart of The Economist, I also check around four or five different local papers, just to see different positions and develop an own view of things.

History is also important, the most we know about things that we humans made, the better we can grasp human behavior and the most accurate our predictions can become.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Knowing what to do

My motto: write whatever TF one wishes, but never fail to go armed. 38spcl, .357 Mag.

Edit: that dog you see with me: threaten me, wife, or intrude into our home and he'd lick your face off.

[Rajiv]

Re: Knowing what to do

Edit: that dog you see with me: threaten me, wife, or intrude into our home and he'd lick your face off.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Knowing what to do

I sure hope that puppy wasn't given to licking himself, but so far I've not seen a dog that doesn't. I guess having a dog lick your mouth is one treatment for chapped lips. The treatment that was popular in the neck of the woods where I was raised was to take chicken shit and rub it on the lips: it didn't cure it, but it sure kept those who chose this remedy from licking their lips.

Actually, my dog, Rio, does NOT lick, but he will get right in your face and smell your breath. He prefers to smell crotches, and I assume a burglar would have some sense of self-preservation if a big dog goes to his crotch. If not, the next thing he should be prepared for is a case of lead poisoning.

[metalman]

Re: Knowing what to do

I sure hope that puppy wasn't given to licking himself, but so far I've not seen a dog that doesn't. I guess having a dog lick your mouth is one treatment for chapped lips. The treatment that was popular in the neck of the woods where I was raised was to take chicken shit and rub it on the lips: it didn't cure it, but it sure kept those who chose this remedy from licking their lips.

Actually, my dog, Rio, does NOT lick, but he will get right in your face and smell your breath. He prefers to smell crotches, and I assume a burgular would have some sense of self-preservation if a big dog goes to his crotch. If not, the next thing he should be prepared for is a case of lead poisoning.

to avoid lead poisoning at jim's abode...



...or teeth marks on your private bits...



...grab a chicken's stinking load...



...and rub it on your tender lips.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Knowing what to do

to avoid lead poisoning at jim's abode...



...or teeth marks on your private bits...



...grab a chicken's stinking load...



...and rub it on your tender lips.

I can only imagine what you could accomplish if you applied yourself totally to making money, or perhaps you have, and this is your outlet.

[metalman]

Re: Knowing what to do

I can only imagine what you could accomplish if you applied yourself totally to making money, or perhaps you have, and this is your outlet.

told you many times, i'm the world's laziest investor. i sold stocks in 2000, went to cash, bought a pile of pms in 2001, sat on my ass ever since. you know my score. waiting to see the usa blow and everyone to say 'oh, the usa is doomed! sell usa!' so i can dump pms and buy usa stocks. everyone is still waaaay too bullish on the usa despite surface appearances. when the usa has a top 20 song like 'american pie' i'm all in usa stocks. now j6p still thinks it'll be a cake walk away from the demise of the fire econ, if he even knows it exists. lots of rude surprises to come. go ahead. add up all the 'surprises' since itulip pre-opened in 2006. now add an equal number onto the next 5 - 6 years.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Knowing what to do

"

These don't lick faces...but they D-A-N-C-E...yiiihaaa.

[Rajiv]

Re: Knowing what to do

PS: how come my vids dont show as vids but as links? :mad:

Use the embed code to the right of the video on the youtube page

[GRG55]

Re: Knowing what to do

...I can't believe I have to learn all this stuff but it appears I do... I'm not sure how well I'll digest it because I'm artistically inclined but nothing ventured, nothing gained...

OG

OG: Many years ago this was my reaction also.




FWIW:

• The FIRE economy spawned a massive "investment advisor" industry flogging funds and "advice" of all sorts. The growth in the number of people making their living doing this over the life of the FIRE economy pretty well guarantees that the vast majority of them are less competent to manage your money than you are. I discovered this sad truth long before exponential function created the current gargantuan monster, that is finally starting to shrivel now that its food supply is shrinking;
• Finding competence in this sea of mediocrity is [IMO] harder than doing it yourself. Much harder;
• Most "research" and analysts reports are good for comic relief and lining the budgie cage, and not much more. Once again the gems are out there, but finding them is difficult, and recognizing them for what they are even more difficult [particularly if you have no background in that industry/sector]. Yes there are some really good analysts, but on the whole the groupt are the most overpaid people in the entire financial industry given their negative value add quotient [I speak from close-up, personal experience dealing with the oil analyst subset of this species];
• If a "sure thing" sounds too good to be true, it undoubtedly is. If something has a luscious yield, best to find out why [there's always a good reason]. At the weekend party, if your brother-in-law is salivating over the latest hot trend, sell whatever you have in that sector to him and order another glass of champagne;
• Following on that thought, investing is mostly a game of psychology [with/against yourself] as opposed to mass digestion of market minutia. To quote the late John Templeton the "Mission is economic altruism...trying to help people; when they desperately want to buy things, be happy to sell, and when they want to sell, buy";
• It took me a long to time to realize that the only sustainable anomaly or mispricing in the market is behavioral. Behavioral anomalies arise from the way that large groups of people function...the way they react to information, process it, the way they make cognitive or emotional errors. Unfortunately most of us humans are overconfident in our own judgement [me included, of course].
• Finally, a couple of observations from Dr. John Hussman..."People tend to react and not anticipate. What they react to is what they wish they had done a year or two years ago"..."Great investors sell (to the market) patience, and the willingness to accept short-term discomfort by taking the opposite side of exactly those trades that speculative, impatient investors most desperately want to make".

As EJ has pointed out many times, you have to have an investment thesis. But if you do not have conviction in your own investment thesis and, therefore by extension, the investment positions you hold consistent with your thesis, you will most likely consume your energy seeking external confirmation that you are doing "the right thing". It is always more comforting to hold the "crowded trade".

Hope that helps. Good luck.

Edit Added: Check out metalman's post on "laziest investor" elsewhere on this thread. That's the epitome of applying the above [investment thesis and conviction in combination]. Some day, with diligence, hard work, much reading, late night cramming, and a wee bit 'o luck I hope to be an equally lazy investor as metalman.