I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

[Jay]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

I'm uncomfortable with going into any specifics on what I've done or am doing, but my real suggestion for anyone is to educate themselves on what has happened in this and other countries like Weimar Germany or Argentina about 6 years ago.

Education is always amongst the very top things in which to invest.

Book suggestions?

I have to agree on tempering the doomer stuff, and I actually see the future as possibly quite bright. That being said, insurance is a nice thing to have, especially when you have young children, and a conversation here about such would be helpful to me. I hope the powers that be don't see this as a change in the overall tenor of the site.

I did buy a large amount of pork and beef and stuck it in the basement freezer today. Once those post flood corn prices get factored in, ouch. Also bought a second propane tank for the grill which will work on my camp stove too. Fishing gear is a good idea.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Book suggestions?

I have to agree on tempering the doomer stuff, and I actually see the future as possibly quite bright. That being said, insurance is a nice thing to have, especially when you have young children, and a conversation here about such would be helpful to me. I hope the powers that be don't see this as a change in the overall tenor of the site.

I did buy a large amount of pork and beef and stuck it in the basement freezer today. Once those post flood corn prices get factored in, ouch. Also bought a second propane tank for the grill which will work on my camp stove too. Fishing gear is a good idea.

How about a generator to keep that freezer cool? and be careful where you store all your gasoline to keep the generator running.

[bart]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Book suggestions?

I have to agree on tempering the doomer stuff, and I actually see the future as possibly quite bright. That being said, insurance is a nice thing to have, especially when you have young children, and a conversation here about such would be helpful to me. I hope the powers that be don't see this as a change in the overall tenor of the site.

I did buy a large amount of pork and beef and stuck it in the basement freezer today. Once those post flood corn prices get factored in, ouch. Also bought a second propane tank for the grill which will work on my camp stove too. Fishing gear is a good idea.

Sounds like wise moves from here. All of those purchases are either dual use, or just plain financial planning.

There are indeed more than a few bright spots too, like dawning comprehension amongst both politicians and especially just average Americans that perhaps certain elements of American culture are just a trifle profligate... to say the least.

As far as books, my best suggestion is either cruising a large bookstore or surfing Amazon or B&N, etc... or perhaps EJ or Fred has a favored link or three. A quick search of Amazon just now turned up quite a few books on Weimar, including some excessively "picturesque" ones about less than savory issues and women in Berlin.
Searching the web for experiences in Argentina will turn up some data but fair warning - they can be *very* disturbing and I'm loathe to post any links.

One other internet search can be useful. Check out old pages on Y2K preparedness.

My own education about Weimar came directly from my father who lived through it, and its too personal to relate as well as too extreme for what I expect. I will say that his father had good preparations, but there were still many problems... and they basically did ok. One of the biggest lessons I took away is to have extra stuff on hand to help out friends & neighbors who find themselves in real distress.

[Jay]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

IMO, there is absolutely no need to make long-term, survivalist-type preparations because of peak oil (by which I mean things that you'd need for a collapse of civilization, like guns, food, and water). Peak oil does not mean that, say, a week from Friday the world runs out of oil, and everyone panics. Rather, it's a very gradual shift (lasting decades) toward higher and higher oil prices -- which, along the way, will tend to suppress demand as well, making the transition even more gradual.

The world has become very efficient at producing food and water. I don't know the exact figure, but I'm guessing that production of these basic necessities takes less than 5% of GDP, averaged worldwide. So the absolute worst case, I'd say, is that we completely fail to develop any alternative energy sources, but slowly revert toward using a large portion of GDP for production of necessities. Even that seems very unlikely to me. But even if it happens, it will be over decades, not days. No shooting of neighbors will be required.

Now before you write me off as a Cloth Hat Wearer, I should mention that I DO have plenty of preps: freeze dried food, minimal guns and ammo, etc. Why? Because there ARE things that COULD cause panic and near or total societal collapse. The most likely I think is a highly lethal bird flu pandemic. I'd put the chances of that at maybe 1 in 10 in my lifetime, but that's still enough that I want insurance against it. Another possibility would be large scale nuclear terrorism, although I'm less worried about that. Also, I suppose even things that aren't worth panicking over could cause short-term panic (including irrational fears of peak oil), which might feed on itself for a short time of say days or weeks, until government intervention fixed it. Minimal short-term preps are always a good idea just for those kinds of things, IMO. (Bird flu preps OTOH, could be as extreme as you like without being totally irrational. If 50% of the world population dies, just about any nightmare scenario could follow.)

Interesting. I have been most concerned about societal unrest due to economic conditions which could breed fear and mistrust. I would rather have a few things stashed away to make that possible situation easier and to be less conspicuous. I don't see mushroom clouds either, but I hear you on disease. The Spanish Flu of 1918 could easily happen again. In fact, it might be more likely to happen now due to lower transportation barriers.

Bart, wow man, I bet you have some stories. Thanks for what you did share. Great stuff on having things for the neighbors. Locked away.

[sn1p3r]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

1 great crossover book is The Alpha Strategy

http://www.biorationalinstitute.com/zcontent/alpha_strategy.pdf

This is a great combination of using money to buy commodities during inflation that you know you will consume and in addition to saving yourself from the inflated cost but also saving yourself from the "capital gains tax" that you are actually realizing when you consume the now higher priced commodities that you didn't have to buy at market value.

The book is a bit dated but I think the principle is timeless...

[GRG55]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Easy my man, I'm just fleshing the issue out not standing on a stump.
Oh, hey what are your preparations? I don't have the ability to buy a farm right now and am stuck in a small city (not a financial limitation anyway), suggestions? I have some bullion, both gold and silver, a tazer and about 2-3 months of food. That and fists of fury!;)
Should we have a SHTF thread with tin foil preparation suggestions?

If all you got is a Taser, I recommend moving in next to metalman and his arsenal. That's sort of like us Canadians in the '50s and '60's, living next door to the USA, and hoping they'd protect us from those Russkies.

Worked then, can't see any reason an analogue of that won't work now...

[Jay]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

If all you got is a Taser, I recommend moving in next to metalman and his arsenal. That's sort of like us Canadians in the '50s and '60's, living next door to the USA, and hoping they'd protect us from those Russkies.

Worked then, can't see any reason an analogue of that won't work now...

Damn, I figured I'd get a smart ass remark from someone for putting that in there!

[sn1p3r]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Mount the tazer on the front of an AR-15 and use it like a "less-lethal" bayonet

[bart]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Damn, I figured I'd get a smart ass remark from someone for putting that in there!

Well, as long as you insist like that... ;)

[Jay]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Well, as long as you insist like that... ;)

Well, you two better watch out. Don't get within 15 feet of me!...

My taser doesn't reach farther.

[c1ue]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

I don't think Mad Max is around the corner - I just don't want to be here when the monetary neutron bomb (only money vaporized, people and buildings are left) hits.

[dbarberic]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

I've done some minor prep, but have not change living location or employement.

I do have to say that every day I read the news and I can't keep from saying to myself "I can't believe how f*cked up things are." I read a lot of main stream news, supplemented by Oil Drum, Financial Sense, other alternative news sites, and LATOC (entertaining, but lower on my scale of reliability).

In part 3A of Puplava's Big Picture this past weekend, he talks about the changes in society and culture when a great inflation occurs. It beleive we are starting to witness those things begining now.

[ax]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

Jay, were you referring to health/life insurance? If so, I find that most of my professional peers and their spouses are grossly underinsured for life and disability. If I recall, you are a doctor, correct? Could your family make it if you were disabled and incurring medical bills on top of lost wages? Many of my friends would leave their spouses and kids without enough money to pay off their homes if they died tomorrow.

As far as preparations, always need extra water/formula in the hurricane state. Know I need to get a generator.

[gobears]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

I go back and forth on how much to prepare. We have taken the basic precautions, but the big one in my mind is whether to acquire some rural acreage or small farm, and where. But, when my rational mind kicks in, I have a hard time believing that things will get that bad. True, the trends are very negative. However, much of what is happening is positive and necessary from the conservation of resource point of view. If gas in the US goes to $10 a gallon, it would have a huge impact on life style, but not curtail our ability as a nation to grow enough food and get it to market. It would simply stimulate a huge investment in alternative energy.

What is wrong with this scenario:
(1) Current crisis results in Americans saving money again, regulating banks / financial industry, and shifting more of the economy back to engineering / manufacturing.
(2) High energy prices make people abandon 15 MPG SUV's for 40 MPG compacts / hybrids and public transit. I guess we could cut fuel consumption in the USA by 75% easily.
(3) Retool the country with nuclear power plants + solar + plug-in hybrids.

In 10 years, the country is competitive again, and leading in new technologies, just as we did with electronics, software, etc...?

That seems not only desirable, but likely. At least, its what I am hoping and working towards.

[c1ue]

Re: I'm seriously spooked and switching to preparations

What is wrong with this scenario:
(1) Current crisis results in Americans saving money again, regulating banks / financial industry, and shifting more of the economy back to engineering / manufacturing.
(2) High energy prices make people abandon 15 MPG SUV's for 40 MPG compacts / hybrids and public transit. I guess we could cut fuel consumption in the USA by 75% easily.
(3) Retool the country with nuclear power plants + solar + plug-in hybrids.

In 10 years, the country is competitive again, and leading in new technologies, just as we did with electronics, software, etc...?

That seems not only desirable, but likely. At least, its what I am hoping and working towards.

I think this is a fine scenario, but it will take at least a decade to bring meaningful results.

What happens in the meantime?

Japan mercantilized the US to its present position. From 1950 to 1970 that nation was not in good shape and helped enormously by the US.

Europe had a lot of money and capital; had major infrastructure destroyed in WW I & II and spent 3 decades rebuilding to where they are.

Even China started its policies in the mid-80s; it took 2 decades to build up to where they are at and it was with the full cooperation of the US as well (at least the rentier classes).

The second question is: how will all of this be paid?

Notice all of the above had a nice sugar daddy paying the bill.

While a pile of dollars has been paid out and is theoretically available in those export nations, what has been obtained for this pile is a stack of planned obsolescent toys. Where is the next pile of dollars to buy infrastructure to come from?

Put another way: a trade deficit of $700B translates to only $2100 per person, or around $5000 per family. Sure this ain't much, but to swing from a negative to a positive means a $7000 shift in spending to savings.

Put another way - if US average household income is $44000, this is a 16% shift in spending. That's a lot, and spending less itself reduces overall income.

So be positive - nothing wrong with that.

But consider the facts and determine whether you are hoping or praying.

EJ believes in innovation saving the day, but I still have not seen an answer to existing debt and earning/spending behavior.

Hudson believes in government repudiating said debt via policy - either inflation or fiat, with the result being a nationalization of the entire American work force. This nationalized labor can then be used to rebuild infrastructure with everything being fine...in 20 years.

Ugh.