When to escape the US

[metalman]

Re: When to escape the US

Metalman, just leave your guns behind you and pledge to learn french.We have an empty room in the basement with a full bathroom.If you are fit to cut the grass and shovel snow , you have a new home !

that's very kind of you. thanks for the invite. i tried to learn french in high school but never got the hang of it.

[c1ue]

Re: When to escape the US

Politically and socially, we're very close to the bottom in the US. Economically, we have a way to go but the chance of hyper-inflation in the US is almost non existent.

My very loose and indefensible corollary: It's possible a significant meteor will strike the earth in the next 5 years, but I'm not going to plan my life around that possibility any more than I'll plan for hyper-inflation within the last world super power. I'd never say that either are impossible, only that a smart person would not plan their life around that eventuality.

SF,

I hope you're right.

On the other hand, the real question is not what your feelings are.

The real question is can this situation happen?

And if it can happen, how it will affect you?

To paraphrase Pascal: if the possibility of hyperinflation is 1%, and your life going to hell is 100% in that instance, then you should protect at least some of your assets.

[santafe2]

Re: When to escape the US

SF,

I hope you're right.

On the other hand, the real question is not what your feelings are.

The real question is can this situation happen?

And if it can happen, how it will affect you?

To paraphrase Pascal: if the possibility of hyperinflation is 1%, and your life going to hell is 100% in that instance, then you should protect at least some of your assets.

Yes, of course you're correct but should this event occur, it will send signals well ahead of it's arrival. It will be more hurricane than earthquake. More meteor strikes earth than pandemic in its approach. There will be time to more fully prepare if one is not debt ridden, leveraged or otherwise encumbered with things that will be without value. It is good practice to live this way now.

If I may prescribe:
Move to a more rural location
Give up as much of your transportation needs as feasible
Buy land with water rights
Build a super insulated home
Get your power from your own energy source, (PV, etc.)
Learn basic farming and food storage.
Raise chickens and maybe a goat
Learn some basic rules for medical care
Cultivate a close group of friends with similar points of view
--- and finally ---
Build a home for metalman and his family - your going to need protection..LOL!

Or, one could do what a lot of other people will do, hunker down or join a mob. Bring me a pitchfork!

Some of the very rich to super rich are now doing some of the above. In California the western Sierras are being dotted with walled off-grid mini-mansions. These will work for the a-social, non-social or anti-social sort that see this possibility as a me against the rabble hoard situation. I'm sure companies like Blackwater are busy marketing security to this group. Now that I think of it, I'm surprised a major insurance company hasn't already contracted with Blackwater so they can sell these services. This should be a great business for them as it will probably never come to pass.

Paranoia can sure be an expensive disease.

[GRG55]

Re: When to escape the US

Yes, of course you're correct but should this event occur, it will send signals well ahead of it's arrival. It will be more hurricane than earthquake. More meteor strikes earth than pandemic in its approach. There will be time to more fully prepare if one is not debt ridden, leveraged or otherwise encumbered with things that will be without value. It is good practice to live this way now.

If I may prescribe:
Move to a more rural location
Give up as much of your transportation needs as feasible
Buy land with water rights
Build a super insulated home
Get your power from your own energy source, (PV, etc.)
Learn basic farming and food storage.
Raise chickens and maybe a goat
Learn some basic rules for medical care
Cultivate a close group of friends with similar points of view
--- and finally ---
Build a home for metalman and his family - your going to need protection..LOL!

Or, one could do what a lot of other people will do, hunker down or join a mob. Bring me a pitchfork!

Some of the very rich to super rich are now doing some of the above. In California the western Sierras are being dotted with walled off-grid mini-mansions. These will work for the a-social, non-social or anti-social sort that see this possibility as a me against the rabble hoard situation. I'm sure companies like Blackwater are busy marketing security to this group. Now that I think of it, I'm surprised a major insurance company hasn't already contracted with Blackwater so they can sell these services. This should be a great business for them as it will probably never come to pass.

Paranoia can sure be an expensive disease.

Here's another approach for the "creative paranoid":

Get your money out of your name (use an offshore trust if necessary);
Learn to dress down (no more dinner jackets, ok);
Learn to paint or sculpt (or learn to fake it really well);
Learn to read and enjoy poetry (or learn to fake it really well);
Move to an art colony like Santa Fe.

I understand it's a lovely place to live and nobody expects artists to actually have anything of value, so you don't need to live behind a wall to be safe from the coming roaming hordes. Keep your hand gun close by in one of your hollowed out sculptures though, just in case...

[c1ue]

Re: When to escape the US

SF,

It is possible to time exit from a hyper-inflationary situation, but I want to point out that the exits will all be crowded.

Getting out as the first boat person is nice, but isn't so nice as leaving when the leaving is good.

[santafe2]

Re: When to escape the US

Here's another approach for the "creative paranoid":

Get your money out of your name (use an offshore trust if necessary);
Learn to dress down (no more dinner jackets, ok);
Learn to paint or sculpt (or learn to fake it really well);
Learn to read and enjoy poetry (or learn to fake it really well);
Move to an art colony like Santa Fe.

I understand it's a lovely place to live and nobody expects artists to actually have anything of value, so you don't need to live behind a wall to be safe from the coming roaming hordes. Keep your hand gun close by in one of your hollowed out sculptures though, just in case...

Thanks GRG, I've always felt a bit too Boy Scoutish, linear and even preachy with my 'be careful' admonitions and aim at life but you've pointed out that other iTulipers, (even a smart one), might see my approach as a bit too arty with a dash of chicken little. I must have been flattered that anyone would think I had the least bit of any these traits so I forwarded your post to my daughter at college as she's a good arbiter of anything related to my shortcomings and I have to tell you, the results are not pretty.

I'm told that the day I read a poem before I look at the some idiotic chart will be the dawn of a new era. However, your post has earned you a mud hut on our little piece of land should the worst come to pass.

[santafe2]

Re: When to escape the US

SF,

It is possible to time exit from a hyper-inflationary situation, but I want to point out that the exits will all be crowded.

Getting out as the first boat person is nice, but isn't so nice as leaving when the leaving is good.

It will be smart to align yourself with clear exits, crowded or not. If this hyper inflation issue proves to be real, which I seriously doubt, those aligned with the exits will get out fine.

As for the boat person reference, it's probably not a good analogy but I'll go with it. You'll want to be the last boat person on the last boat without a leak but for now, I'll continue to rent boats to people wanting out too early.

[c1ue]

Re: When to escape the US

SF,

From direct interactions with 'boat people' from Vietnam, Russia (1996), Argentina, Russia (1917), China (1949) and Mexico - the 95%+ consensus is that it would have been better to get out first.

The ones who got out first got the best government aid, the first pick of jobs, the widest range of opportunities in every possible way.

The ones who got out last got the shaft.

There is an exception - if you're a high position official in the government.

Even those (formerly) with money agree: having money doesn't itself mean squat; at the end your money only matters as a ratio to other's money. Those with lots beat those with little, but there are plenty of those with more.

[phirang]

Re: When to escape the US

when people start hoarding and walling off their property, then is the time to look for bargains...

[santafe2]

Re: When to escape the US

SF,

From direct interactions with 'boat people' from Vietnam, Russia (1996), Argentina, Russia (1917), China (1949) and Mexico - the 95%+ consensus is that it would have been better to get out first.

The ones who got out first got the best government aid, the first pick of jobs, the widest range of opportunities in every possible way.

The ones who got out last got the shaft.

There is an exception - if you're a high position official in the government.

Even those (formerly) with money agree: having money doesn't itself mean squat; at the end your money only matters as a ratio to other's money. Those with lots beat those with little, but there are plenty of those with more.

As I said, I think your analogy is flawed. This is no time to head for the boat.

[GRG55]

Re: When to escape the US

Thanks GRG, I've always felt a bit too Boy Scoutish, linear and even preachy with my 'be careful' admonitions and aim at life but you've pointed out that other iTulipers, (even a smart one), might see my approach as a bit too arty with a dash of chicken little. I must have been flattered that anyone would think I had the least bit of any these traits so I forwarded your post to my daughter at college as she's a good arbiter of anything related to my shortcomings and I have to tell you, the results are not pretty.

I'm told that the day I read a poem before I look at the some idiotic chart will be the dawn of a new era. However, your post has earned you a mud hut on our little piece of land should the worst come to pass.

My post was as much a jab at my too serious self also. As a gear (engineer) such passtimes as poetry and painting are just as remote an outcome for me as you indicate for yourself. I am much happier building something or, even better, taking something apart to see how it works and leaving the parts strewn about forever after (which is what I would probably do with a handgun)...;)

New Mexico is one of the few places in the USA that I have not yet visited, and the Sante Fe landscapes I have seen in pictures do look uniquely lovely, so appreciate the adobe hut escape option. I can think of much worse places to hang out during "The Catastrophe".

[GRG55]

Re: When to escape the US

when people start hoarding and walling off their property, then is the time to look for bargains...

Like this?

Gated communities more popular, and not just for the rich
By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
NEW ORLEANS — To find refuge from the bawdy French Quarter and the faded elegance of downtown, the wealthy here live in gated suburban communities with names that whisper exclusivity: English Turn, Barkley Estates and Oakland Plantation.
Six-foot brick walls and iron fences encircle these enclaves of luxury homes. Electronic gates and 24-hour security guards keep outsiders away. The streets are spotless, the landscaping lush...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...ted-usat_x.htm


Tucson Gated Communities
http://www.soldtucson.com/page16.htm...FQo1QgodekuXnw


Most Expensive Gated Communities In America 2004
http://www.forbes.com/2004/11/19/cx_sc_1119home.html

...:rolleyes:

[phirang]

Re: When to escape the US

Like this?

Gated communities more popular, and not just for the rich
By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
NEW ORLEANS — To find refuge from the bawdy French Quarter and the faded elegance of downtown, the wealthy here live in gated suburban communities with names that whisper exclusivity: English Turn, Barkley Estates and Oakland Plantation.
Six-foot brick walls and iron fences encircle these enclaves of luxury homes. Electronic gates and 24-hour security guards keep outsiders away. The streets are spotless, the landscaping lush...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...ted-usat_x.htm


Tucson Gated Communities
http://www.soldtucson.com/page16.htm...FQo1QgodekuXnw


Most Expensive Gated Communities In America 2004
http://www.forbes.com/2004/11/19/cx_sc_1119home.html

...:rolleyes:

come on now, it's not a buyers market yet if they still have a functioning electric grid! diesel should be airlifted in and the houses should all run solar stills, with north korean mercenaries guarding the properties in their second-hand polish tanks: now THAT's value investing!

[c1ue]

Re: When to escape the US

I'd suggest the foothills of California along the border between Northern and Southern Cal for a retreat.

Idaho? Montana? Too friggin' cold, hard to raise food there. Then there's things like salt and fruit.

Midwest? Man cannot live on corn alone. Plus the prairie is classic Mongol invasion scenario - security is impossible.

East Coast? Too many people and too dense.

Oregon isn't bad either, but a little too wet.

Got to think in 1800s terms: 500 miles distance without major roads is enough barrier in a largely unpopulated area.

[Andreuccio]

Re: When to escape the US

I'd suggest the foothills of California along the border between Northern and Southern Cal for a retreat.

Idaho? Montana? Too friggin' cold, hard to raise food there.

You're forgetting to factor in global warming. Pocatello will be the new Fresno.