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I have found several models that have the spending demograhic trend within it. Its basically when the babby boomers retire and there spending dwindles, this spending can be correlated with the inflation adjusted INDU index. All models have a major down swing in the future starting on or before 2012.
1) http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/ by Dan Arnold
Here he say's the INDU will be a BULL all the way to 2010-2012 on the back of solid baby boomers spending. Then a major 1930s type slump.
2) Ka - Poom
Here Itulip say's a deflation period now, then another re inflation, then a massive deflation period. I now that there is more than demograhics in this model , ie there FIRE economy etc
3) Investment rate model by Thomas Key
http://stocktradersdaily.com/Main/se...nt%20rate.html
I subscribed to the 10 day trial and the model is based on demographics of the strongest investment spending population group ( not a lot of detail, basically baby boomers who invest I guess) . From now there will be another 16 year slump ( like 1930's), so far his call to SHORT INDU in DEC 07 is correct. He says he made the correct call to SHORT in 2000, and then go LONG in late 2002.
So not to good from here out, but who is more correct...open for critical analysis, what say yee
1) http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/ by Dan Arnold
Here he say's the INDU will be a BULL all the way to 2010-2012 on the back of solid baby boomers spending. Then a major 1930s type slump.
2) Ka - Poom
Here Itulip say's a deflation period now, then another re inflation, then a massive deflation period. I now that there is more than demograhics in this model , ie there FIRE economy etc
3) Investment rate model by Thomas Key
http://stocktradersdaily.com/Main/se...nt%20rate.html
I subscribed to the 10 day trial and the model is based on demographics of the strongest investment spending population group ( not a lot of detail, basically baby boomers who invest I guess) . From now there will be another 16 year slump ( like 1930's), so far his call to SHORT INDU in DEC 07 is correct. He says he made the correct call to SHORT in 2000, and then go LONG in late 2002.
So not to good from here out, but who is more correct...open for critical analysis, what say yee